It's unbelievable. The court in Haag is such a funny place.

International community was also trying to divide B&H during the war.

If that is the "map" from the napkin it could easily look like the landscaping design for my backyard.

I think that the ICTY and the international community wanted to show that the both Croatia and Serbia were equally guilty for the way (and yet the Serbs are awarded with 49% of the country in Dayton).

I also think for as much as the international community does not like to talk about redrawing borders. They will if it suits them. That's why we have countries like East Timor, and South Sudan and not countries like Artsakh, Abkhazia, Ossetia or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

First of all Paddy Ashdown doesn't have a first damn clue about what is Greater Croatia(so he shouldn't talk about it), second if this map is taken as evidence then really is that ICTY serious court or just another twisted British humor?!?

"I think that the ICTY and the international community wanted to show that the both Croatia and Serbia were equally guilty for the way (and yet the Serbs are awarded with 49% of the country in Dayton)." (Stecak)

I made a comment on another blog (http://modernityblog.wordpress.com/2010 ... criticisms) about the Serbs being awarded half of Bosnia that might be of interest to you. Here is the comment:

"I mentioned the map linked to above, http://www.rastko.rs/istorija/srbi-balk ... arta2b.jpg, in my blog, http://rgallivan.blogspot.com/2011/07/c ... n-war.html . The map is usually used to advance Serb arguments, but in the case of Tuzla, it seems to be most advantageous to the Croats, as it shows that, even though they only made up 16% of the municipality’s pre-war population they were the dominant ethnic group across 150 square kilometres or nearly 50% of Tuzla municipality, when it is divided into its ‘settlements’, against 30% for the Muslims and 20% for the Serbs. The Croats have sought their own separate municipality, ‘Soli’, to be separated from Tuzla, as happened with ‘Usora’ in Tesanj. When settlements across all municipalities in Bosnia are considered the map shows Serbs as the biggest ethnic group in 50% of the country, Muslims in 30% and Croats in 20%. I think any discussion of whether Bosnia should be partitioned and if so how would have to give due weight to this map."

I would also add that theoretically at least it could be possible for the Croats to give Drvar etc to Republika Srpska in return for parts of Posavina (with the Muslims also getting Srebrenica, Zepa etc) and the Serbs still controlling half of the country. I am not advocating partition - just pointing out the theoretical possibilities, which include the Republika Srpska covering half of Bosnia but in a way that is much less favourable to the Serbs than the current situation.

Serbs are not interested in trading strategicly important Posavina . And besides only we , Croatians have something to offer them (Drvar-Glamoč-Grahovo) , so it is highly unlikely that any part of Podrinje will be (in near future) part of Bosnian canton.

[quote="Rory Gallivan"]
I would also add that theoretically at least it could be possible for the Croats to give Drvar etc to Republika Srpska in return for parts of Posavina (with the Muslims also getting Srebrenica, Zepa etc) /quote]





No way Rory, Croats offered to Serbs those towns but Serbs refused. For Serbs corridor in Posavina is much more important than those few municipalities.
And why will Croats give those towns for Srebrenica? For Srebrenica muslims have to give some teritory under their control, Petrovac for example. We have no surplus of teritory to give some towns to Serbs in exchange for some towns for muslims - no way Rory...

Yes I know there's no way. My point is that it is theoretically possible for RS to cover half of Bosnia in a way that is less detrimental to Croats and Muslims than the current situation.

Rory

We all think that for now the exchanging of Drvar Glamoc and Grahovo (aka DGG) for Posavina is probably going to not happen. It is way too important for the Serbs to hold onto it and especially for Croats NOT to return (to possibly cause problems). That does not mean that we wouldn't want to see it happen.

I DO think that we could use some of the DGG territory to trade for areas in the RS that could be beneficial to both sides.

Now most Serbs would say that the borders of the RS are untouchable. I would say that too if I had almost 50% of the country. But my concern here is not for the RS but for the benefit of Croatians.

For example, one area that I think we could probably get without too much issue is the area of Komušina. It is an area of the Teslić municipality that is adjacent to Žepče. It had 10,000 Croats before the war. You can see a general map here.



It is also an area that is economically dead for the the RS (much like Posavina) because it was cleansed but if we shifted the border it would not be detrimental to the RS. In theory if we got people to return there, a pretty good sized Croatian enclave could be formed up in that area that comprises Komušina and Žepče. See here:



Other areas that we might be able to surgically extract might be Croatian areas around Jajce or the parish of Stjepan Krst in Eastern Herzegovina.

ps hvala MRSHO za karte

Very interesting. I think though, as was suggested by Zadar1993 and Bobovac, any change to the borders between the RS and the Federation is very unlikely.

Here is an interesting comment from an International Crisis Group Report from about a year ago though. ( http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/File ... Crisis.pdf )

Over fifteen years, a number of municipalities have asked
to be reallocated to another canton or entity. The FBiH’s
four predominately-Serb municipalities (Glamoč, Grahovo,
Drvar and Petrovac), are in neighbouring cantons
(the first three in Livno, the last in Una-Sana), would prefer
to be in RS but would settle for being in the same
canton, so they could jointly lobby for their interests.
Croat majority Kiseljak and Kreševo would like to move
from the increasingly Bosniak-dominated Central Bosnian
canton to Croat-dominated Herzegovina-Neretva.

And perhaps some posavian villages in a way that we are not cutting their's coridor (in the municipalities Brod, Derventa, Šamac, Vukosavlje, Modriča, Žabar).
It would be good that we get the same percenage in, as we get back.
For example Drvar and north of Glamoč would have more land than whole of Posavina and "border villages". If we give something more there is still land we could get back from the Muslims (Vareš-Sutjeska, villages around Konjic, Bugojno, Travnik, Fojnica or Uskoplje).
But most of this post is too-much optimistic. Serb do not want to change their's borders, although it would benefit them economicly (giving away the ruins). They simply do not want to open Pandora's box with Muslims.

With regards to the adjustment of BiH's internal borders, I just wanted to add that stranger things have happened. Look at the discussions about Greece leaving the Eurozone. That was almost unfathomable just a short time ago.

Maybe there is a scenario out there that will allow for a more favorable arrangement of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina. When it does happen we need to be ready. If we can get Posavina, Komušina, Stjepan Krst, Soli, or Vareš-Sutjeska, etc then we will take it.

Maybe much of this thread is too optimistic with regards to a territorial adjustment with the Serbs, but on the other hand we know how Sarajevo would feel about an archipelago of Croat municipalities and cantons all over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Even though there is nothing that legally would prevent the forming of the Soli municpality (it meets the criteria) Sarajevo would bitterly fight it because it would cede local control to us Croats.

We have to know what we want and go from there.

Are there any Croat villages or towns in the RS Posavina region that could be geographically joined to the Posavina Canton?

In municipality of Pelagićevo , almost all villages/towns were Croatian-majority before war (except Pelagićevo itself which had Serb majority ).

Problem is that both Pelagićevo and Bosanski Šamac municipalities are on important strategic location for Republica Srpska (Posavina corridor) so the best option would be getting some villages/towns from municipality of Bosanski Brod and Derventa .

Perhaps someone here has ethnic map for that part of BiH? It could explain you better the situation than my description above.

All of Posavina were croatian villages which could be geographically joined to Posavina Canton. From Dervente to Brčko. The point is to "leave" serbian coridor in the Pelagićevo municipality. Without much geographical or ethnical disadvantiges Serbs could trade Šamac, Brod, Vukosavlje and Derveta. Even some villages in Modriča, Žabar and Pelagićevo. Most of Croatian villages in that area are now ruins in which nowbody (except older people) lives. Oil rafinery in Brod could be financialy compensated. Serbs would be left with their coridor or in the worst scenario inalarged district Brčko (on Pelagićevo, Žabar) which would also work to their advantages because it would lower Bosniak/muslim percentage in it. But, as they have nothing to lose, they do not have nothing much to give in the exchange (Drvar, Grahovo and Glamoč are barren wastes from which serbs emigrated in mass numbers even before this war). So that's the main minus to the discussion. They could do it. Do they want to do it?
Main plus would be the weakening of Bosniaks.

Zadar1993:

Here is an ethnic map of Posavina before the war. This might give you some idea of ares that could be included in a territorial trade with the Serbs.

Blue=Croatians

Green=Muslims

Red=Serbs

Thanks for the map .

So as we can clearly see the municipalities of Brod ,Derventa and Šamac are completly unimportant for Serbian corridor, while Croatian villages in municipality of Pelagićevo(on this map there is no municipality of Pelagićevo , both Croatian and Serbian villages that form modern-day municipality of Pelagićevo are located on north, north-west and west of pre-war Gradačac municipality) and Modriča are located on corridor and therefore strategicly important for RS, thus unavailable for trade.

Does anyone know the current ethnic composition of the villages/towns/cities in this region?
Because it would be the current situation that would matter the most when it comes to trying to fit Croat towns into the Posavina Canton or into Croatia.

For example are these towns still majority Croat? Going from west to east on the ethnic map provided. These towns could be geographically joined to Croatia/Posavina Canton.

Bosanski Dubočac
Pjevalovac
Bijelo Brdo
Kuljenovci
Gradac
Begluci
Korače
Novo Selo (Brod)
Gornja Močila
Kričanovo
Donje Kolibe
Brusnica Velika (Brod)
Prud
Zasavica
Bazik
Domaljevac
Grebnice
Novo Selo (Bosanski Samac)
Donji Hasic
Gornji Hasic

The following within Brcko district

Krepsic
Gorice
Markovic Polje
Lanista
Vuksic Donji
Ulice
Vuksic Gornji
Vitanovici Donji
Donji Rahic
Ulovic
Vitanovici Gornji
Skakava Donja
Dubrave
Skakava Gornja
Bijela

This first map are today's ethnity borders superimposed on that map (purple) http://imageshack.us/f/253/bosanskaposavina91naziv.jpg/. New municipal borders in RS (Vukosavlje and Modriča) are colored in grey.
In second map is how it could look like http://imageshack.us/f/39/bosanskaposavina91nazivtm.jpg/.
District Brčko is coming to Modriča, and Croats are given back theirs villages.
Those villages with exception of Derventa, Modriča, Brod and Šamac are empty now.

Ceha: I see in the proposed Brčko-Modriča district that you included Špionica

I think that proposed map is something that could be achieved. The Serbs have a corridor secured and they would get rid of economically dead areas. The proposed Brčko-Modriča district would stay neutral and we could work on returning Croats there.

Stecak mentioned Komušina region. After years of just talking about reconstruction of road connection between croatian settlements in Komušina region (Republika Srpska) and Novi Šeher - Žepče (Federation) now the project (paperwork) is finished. But still there are some obstructions because the project bypasses Muslim settlements Kamenica (RS) and Kopice (FBiH) which are linked also with poor gravel road.

Advantages of the chosen route are that it will connect not only croatian settlements but also Brezove Dane, Serb (pre-war) majority settlement, and most of those Serbs are now living in Teslić and sorounding, so there is interest also in Serb comunnity, which is interested in reconstructing their pre-war homes in Brezove Dane. Also the chosen route is shorter and terrain is more suitable for constructing...


Red line - planned rout (Crna Rijeka - Tadići - Hatkina Njiva)
Dottet yelow = Entity boundaries
blue region = Croat settlements
red region = Serb settlements
green region = Muslim settlements

Yes, map would benefit everybody, and after many years people would start to return and economy to recover Map is based on a hard priciple and respect to another intrests. Map is Croatian interest

"Does anyone know the current ethnic composition of the villages/towns/cities in this region?
Because it would be the current situation that would matter the most when it comes to trying to fit Croat towns into the Posavina Canton or into Croatia.

For example are these towns still majority Croat? Going from west to east on the ethnic map provided. These towns could be geographically joined to Croatia/Posavina Canton."

These data from the 2010 election might give an indication (although it might also include people voting when they don't live there). Sorry, it's a bit of a mess, but you can see it's quite unclear. The HDZ won in some of them, Serb parties in others.


Novo Selo (Brod) – 42 votes, 26 for HDZ.
Bosanski Dubocac – 76 votes, 17 for Dodik’s SNSD, 12 for HDZ, 7 for HDZ 1990
Gornji Hasic -
ТАДИЋ ОГЊЕН - КОАЛИЦИJА ЗАJЕДНО ЗА СРПСКУ 174
ДОДИК МИЛОРАД - СНСД - ДНС - СП 60
KRNDELJ IVAN - HSS - NHI 46
KAMENJAŠEVIĆ IVO - HDZ BIH - HRVATSKA DEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE 31

Modran -
KRNDELJ IVAN - HSS - NHI 79
KAMENJAŠEVIĆ IVO - HDZ BIH - HRVATSKA DEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE 34
SULJKANOVIĆ ENES - SDP - SOCIJALDEMOKRATSKA PARTIJA BIH 16
MATIĆ ŽELJKO - HRVATSKA KOALICIJA HDZ 1990 - HSP BIH 15
MURSELOVIĆ MUHAREM - STRANKA ZA BOSNU I HERCEGOVINU 12


Novo Selo ( B. Samac)
ДОДИК МИЛОРАД - СНСД - ДНС - СП 111
ТАДИЋ ОГЊЕН - КОАЛИЦИJА ЗАJЕДНО ЗА СРПСКУ 94
KRNDELJ IVAN - HSS - NHI 8
KAMENJAŠEVIĆ IVO - HDZ BIH - HRVATSKA DEMOKRATSKA ZAJEDNICA BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE 6

Looking at the data for Derventa, B. Brod and B. Samac, the Croat parties came behind Serb parties in all but a tiny handful of settlements in the 2010 elections. In Tuzla though, they were the most popular parties in lots of settlements, so maybe "Soli" is a more realistic prospect.