U Hrvatskoj pad 15,1%, ali u odnosu na Q2 2019, dakle na godišnjoj razini.

Velika Britanija - potop. Ta država ima velikih problema. Od Brexita stalno problemi.

Vidio sam, ali nisam stavljao jer je neusporedivo, tj. uspoređivale bi se kruške i jabuke.

Velika Britanija - potop. Ta država ima velikih problema. Od Brexita stalno problemi.

II Kvartal 2020 - pad BDP-a (vs previous quarter)
Velika Britanija -20,4%
Španjolska -18,5%
Portugal -14,1%
Francuska -13,8%
Italija - 12,4%
Belgija -12,2%
Njemačka -9,8%
Švedska -8,3%

Samo da napomenem, da trenutno broj zaraženih u Švedskoj (per capita) jest mnogo manji nego u zemljama iznad, koje su imale tvrdi lockdown i daleko veći pad BDPa.

Toliko o spašavanju života lockdownom. Jedna od najglupljih mjera uvedenih ikada.

U Hrvatskoj pad 15,1%, ali u odnosu na Q2 2019, dakle na godišnjoj razini.

Pad BDP-a u drugom tromjesečju na godišnjoj razini u zemljama EU:

Španjolska -22,1;
Francuska -19,0;
Italija -17,3;
Portugal -16,3;
Hrvatska -15,1;
Belgija -14,5
Mađarska -13,5;
Austrija -13,3;
Slovačka -12,1;
Njemačka -11,7;
Češka -10,7;
Rumunjska -10,5;
Nizozemska -9,0;
Danska -8,5;
Švedska -8,3;
Bugarska -8,2
Poljska -7,9;
Finska -5,2;
Litva -3,7

izvor: novac.zabranjeni.hr

Hrvatska je 5. najgora zemljanu EU u drugom tromjesečju.

Pad BDP-a u drugom tromjesečju na godišnjoj razini u zemljama EU:

Španjolska -22,1;
Francuska -19,0;
Italija -17,3;
Portugal -16,3;
Hrvatska -15,1;
Belgija -14,5
Mađarska -13,5;
Austrija -13,3;
Slovačka -12,1;
Njemačka -11,7;
Češka -10,7;
Rumunjska -10,5;
Nizozemska -9,0;
Danska -8,5;
Švedska -8,3;
Bugarska -8,2
Poljska -7,9;
Finska -5,2;
Litva -3,7

izvor: novac.zabranjeni.hr

Hrvatska je 5. najgora zemljanu EU u drugom tromjesečju.

Moglo bi biti tektonskih poremećaja na globalnoj razini.

Prvo će sada države u ovom i sljedećim razdobljima pokušati "naštampati" pare, tj. raditi QE i pojačati zaduženja iz izvora sa viškom para. To bi trebalo amortizirati ovako jake udare.
Opet mislim da će velikih posljedica biti i dalje i da će na globalnom planu se neke velike društveno-političke promjene desiti.

Štampanje novca nema učinka ako nema potrošnje i investicija.

Zabrana ljudskih aktivnosti koje znače potrošnju i zaradu (a samim time potiču i investicije) je smrt za ekonomiju i zaposlenost naroda.

Hrvatska ima danas 100 000 manje zaposlenih nego lani u isto doba.

Inače čitam na FT, da su u San Francisku počele padati cijene nekretnina u downtownu i da ljudi sve više izražavaju želje za životom u ruralnim dijelovima Kalifornije. Lockdown i strahovi od novih lockdowna ostavljaju traga. Ljudi ne vole skučene stanove i nebodere u takvim okolnostima.

Jedna junuzarija se počela obistinjavati.

Inače čitam na FT, da su u San Francisku počele padati cijene nekretnina u downtownu i da ljudi sve više izražavaju želje za životom u ruralnim dijelovima Kalifornije. Lockdown i strahovi od novih lockdowna ostavljaju traga. Ljudi ne vole skučene stanove i nebodere u takvim okolnostima.

Jedna junuzarija se počela obistinjavati.

Ma dobro, mislim da je tu riječ samo o nastavku white flight, karakterističnom za velike gradove na Zapadu. Ova situacija je to samo malo ubrzala.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight

Velika Britanija -21,7% na godišnjoj razini.

COVID-19 and ‘Reinventing’ a New Economic Model

Recovery from the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic may require the development of a new and more equitable economic model.

What is happening to the world? A question we all ask ourselves and the answer we all get is, “everything is changing”. The world is a dynamic place that is gradually, yet constantly changing, and COVID-19 serves as a catalyst that is expediting this change process. We can see and feel this change on our faces with everyone wearing protective masks or having our temperature measured before entering a building. Most importantly, we are practicing physical distancing, while desperately trying to stay socially connected. All these changes highlight the beginning of a new era that presents different challenges than the ones we faced before.

The economic system in the post-COVID-19 world is unfortunately characterized by the following challenges: a pandemic, climate crisis, social unrest due to high levels of income inequality, gender and race inequalities, and the need for a new and more equitable social contract. The system is also characterized by hundreds of millions losing their jobs, millions of businesses going bankrupt, and jeopardy of the future of work as the fourth industrial revolution is around the corner.

What all these problems have in common is that they push people to think and ask a question; are we trapped within a broken economic model? Yes, COVID-19 has fundamentally shaken our economic systems, and they seem to be failing at meeting the needs of the people in the post COVID-19 world.

Yes, the world has changed and at a rate much faster than we ever expected. COVID-19 showed us the flaws of our system and has also shown us how our survival instinct made us try so hard to be agile and adapt to change. COVID-19 presents a closing historical window of opportunity to reshape the system; humans have to seize this opportunity to be on a more sustainable path and we need to start thinking of developing and implementing a new economic model that meets all humans’ basic needs and maximizes human wellbeing.

Current global economic recovery efforts cannot rely on previously developed methods, techniques and programs to effectively fight this unprecedented crisis. To this day, there is no specific treatment for COVID-19, and the medications currently used are previously developed anti-viral drugs that do not kill the virus, but rather work on limiting its spread in the body. Just like how we need a new treatment for COVID-19, we also need a new economic model to successfully overcome this crisis and helps economies to thrive, not just survive.

People prefer stories over numbers as they can be easily understood and remembered. As such, for this new model to be successful it has to have a story that describes the present and depicts the future. This story has to be simple and should address all the above-mentioned problems to be widely supported by the masses. If people want to replace an existing story, we need to come up with a better one; to agree on a new narrative on how we want to live.

This is what happened when Laissez Faire economics failed, it was replaced by Keynesian economics that offered a different narrative that was widely accepted—a narrative that revolved around redistributing wealth and spending public money on public goods. When Keynesian economics failed, it was replaced by Neo-liberalism that was also widely accepted by the masses at the time: it was characterized by taking the state out of the equation and that the private sector will create wealth and opportunity for the masses.

In the 2008 financial crisis, when Neoliberalism failed, it did not die and was not replaced by another economic model. Yet, it still dominates our lives to this day, which raises a simple question, why does it still exist? The simple answer is because there is no consensus on the alternate story of how we want to live in the post-Neoliberal world. In 2020, Neoliberalism was put to another test where it failed again with hundreds of millions being left behind. Consequently, now is the time to work on an alternate story, a new economic model that solves the current problems and is supported by the masses.

The story of our new economic model has to be characterized by forward-oriented solutions that have a broader impact in a much shorter period of time. We need an economic transition similar to the one that happened from Keynesian to Neoliberalism; now is the time for the shift from Neoliberalism to the new economic model.

As a result, this models needs to be fairer, and through equitable sustainable development, sharing of wealth and universal basic income, it prevents anyone being left behind We need a new model that utilizes the diverse capacities of 7.8 billion individuals to fight climate crisis and inequality. Humans need a new model that encompasses circular economy and new techniques in building more inclusive, equitable and sustainable cities that live on planetary means, where food security is not an issue, and technological developments are seen as opportunities not threats.

Most importantly, we need new models of trade and making business as the current models proved that the supply chain is as weak as its weakest link. We need a new model that makes the world a better and more connected place for us now and for future generations. All this drastic change has to come in the coming 10 years, before it is too late.

The only way forward is to start a global conversation as soon as possible, where people lay down the foundations of this new model, and once we reach a consensus, we need to start implementing it. Maybe we will not get to immediately see the positive impacts of this model when it successfully works, but for sure our future generations will thank us for our efforts.

https://www.thecairoreview.com/covid-19 ... mic-model/

Treba dodati da je slom reda i zakona u SADu dao veliki doprinos tome možda i više nego lockdown. Moguće je da se urbana civilizacija počela urušavati.

Ljudi koji žele red i mir i sigurnost se sele tamo gdje toga ima. Gradovi se pretvaraju u mad max in the real life.

Pa gledajte ljudi filmove. Tamo se sve to vec jednom desilo.