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19th June DAY 8: GAMES 21-23

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BEST TRADES FOR DAY 8

GAME 21: LAY Ivory Coast @ $3.85 and below

GAME 22: LAY URUGUAY @ $3.85 or below

GAME 22: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

GAME 21-GAME 22 Win Multi: Colombia-England @ $4.50 or above

GAME 23: LAY GREECE @$3.60 or less

GAME 23: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00
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GAME 21: Colombia (Ranked 8th) vs Ivory Coast (23rd)

Colombia $2.16
Ivory Coast $3.85
Draw $3.50

Colombia opened their campaign with a routine win against Greece 3-0. Ivory Coast played in an entertaining come from behind win over Japan 2-1. Group C is paired with Group D in the next round. Subsequently, the winner of this match will most likely finish top of Group C and will play the runners up from Group D (probably England).

The opening win has extended Colombia’s recent record to: P24/W14/D6/L4. If we look a little deeper into the form two of the losses were tight affairs against Argentina and Uruguay. In the win column they have the scalps of Uruguay and Belgium whilst also having solid draws with Argentina and Netherlands. Their form is excellent. Importantly, they have only failed to score in five of the recent matches and have kept clean sheets in 12 of those games. They have scored 40 goals and conceded 17. Their games are more prolific in the second half, with the majority of goals scored in that stanza. Our model has them a 54% chance of victory – or a $1.85 chance.

Ivory Coast (P22/W13/D5/L4) qualified through Africa and has had no problems scoring in recent times, averaging over 2.00 goals per game. During this period 73% of games have gone over 2.5 goals as they have also conceded, on average one goal per game. They are talented & enigmatic, as was shown in the opening match where they were behind for long periods before scoring twice in three minutes. They have got to this stage through playing inferior teams to Colombia, their best results to date being the win over Japan and a draw with Belgium. There is no notable difference between goals in the first and second half in games they play. Our model rates them a $5.26 chance.

Our rating for the Draw is a probability of 27% ($3.70).

We cannot oppose Colombia in this match. They are frugal in defence and strong in attack. We see them scoring at least once meaning that Ivory Coast will need two goals to win, and whilst this is in line with their long term average, this statistic has been achieved against opposition far inferior to Colombia. We will stay out of the Under/Over 2.5 trading as the disparity between the two sides records on this metric makes it too hard to ascertain how the game will end up.

We will keep the draw on side by LAYING Ivory Coast at the current quote.

TRADING:
1. LAY IVORY COAST @$3.85 or less

BACKING:
2. Multi (small) Colombia-England @ $4.50 or above


GAME 22: Uruguay (Ranked 7th) vs England (10th)

Uruguay $3.85
England $2.10
Draw $3.70

Uruguay opened their campaign by being smashed by Costa Rica (3-1). England played in a surprisingly entertaining 2-1 loss to Italy. The loser in this match will be probably going home so the stakes are relatively high for two of the pre-tournament fancies.

We have not rated Uruguay from the start and have opposed them to qualify. Nothing much has changed. Those who took the $1.48 in the first match would be feeling sick.

Uruguay’s recent record (P30/W14/D9/L7) includes a very wobbly start to qualifying. In more recent times however they have been dominant (P15/W8/D3/L4) with their only losses to Spain twice, Brazil and Costa Rica.

Much of their attack will centre on Luis Suarez from Liverpool who was not available in the opener. If he is fit they will create many more opportunities. That said, if there is a nation that will nullify his threat it will be England; they know his game well and many of the English squad are his Liverpool teammates. They have good form around Argentina, Spain, France and Japan. Interestingly in their last 16 games they have only scored twice before the 20th minute, scoring the majority of their goals in the latter parts of games. Only twice in their last 30 games has there been no goals in the second half. Based on what they served up against Costa Rica and their overall form, our model rates Uruguay a $5.00 chance. The pressure is on them to win here as they have Italy waiting for them in the next match.

England is the perennial underachiever. Their form card (P21/W10/D8/L3) indicates how tough they are to beat. Their losses have been to Germany, Chile and Italy. There is no disgrace in that. Their games are averaging three goals and there is a propensity for the second half to have more goals than the first stanza. They have only conceded seven goals over the form period in the first half. They will keep it tight early and based on how they played against Italy we expect them to be more expansive, using their pace out wide to crack open Uruguay. A draw might do them here, on the proviso that Italy beat Costa Rica and then they beat them. We have them rated as a $1.92 chance in this match, representing value compared to the public market.

The Draw is rated at $3.57.

As unreliable as England is we are expecting a strong showing in this match. Owing to the fact that a Draw is not the end of the world for them we will LAY Uruguay so as to keep that on side. The prevalence of second half goals will also see a LAY of the HT score in the Correct Score market. We will also have a small multi with Colombia.

TRADING:
1. LAY URUGUAY @$3.85 or less

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00
2. Multi (small) Colombia-England @ $4.50 or above


GAME 23: Japan (Ranked 46th) vs Greece (12th)

Japan $2.26
Greece $3.60
Draw $3.50

Both of these teams need to win after losing in the first match. This should play into the hands of the Japanese and allow them to usurp the rankings. Greece doesn’t know how to score goals and playing an attacking game is not in their DNA.

The difference between Japan’s best and worst is frustrating. They are technically brilliant and a strong case can be made here. Their form guide reads well (P34/W21/D5/L9). Included in this run have been wins against Italy, Mexico and Belgium and an unlucky draw against Netherlands. There has been no shortage of goals scored, with Japan’s games averaging over 3.30 goals per game. Similarly over 60% of games have over 2.5 goals. There has been a second half goal in all but two of their last 25 games. They took the lead against Ivory Coast only to be run down late. Our model rates Japan a $2.00 chance, making them slight value in the public markets.

On face value the recent form of Greece reads well: P18/W11/D5/L3. During this run they have kept 13 clean sheets, scored 21 goals and even with the drubbing by Colombia have conceded just 11. Additionally, they have had four 0-0 draws and five 1-0 wins. They are a boring side that struggles to score, but also makes it tough for the opposition. If we look at the pedigree of the teams they have met in recent matches it is not great. They scraped through qualification, beating Romania in a play off and since then their best results have been against Portugal, Switzerland and Nigeria, all of which finished 0-0 (of course). They rate as a 22% chance of winning – or $4.55, primarily on the basis of the fact that they cannot score goals. Japan look like good things to score at least one goal meaning Greece will need at least two goals – something they have not achieved against a high ranking side since they were beaten by Germany two years ago.

Our rating for the Draw is a probability of 28% ($3.57).

Greece will struggle to score but will keep it tight for a long period. The game needs to rev up in the second half as each side pushes for a win.

TRADING:
1. LAY GREECE @$3.60 or less

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

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BEST TRADES FOR DAY 8

GAME 21: LAY Ivory Coast @ $3.85 and below

GAME 22: LAY URUGUAY @ $3.85 or below

GAME 22: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

GAME 21-GAME 22 Win Multi: Colombia-England @ $4.50 or above

GAME 23: LAY GREECE @$3.60 or less

GAME 23: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00
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