Objavljeni su zvanicni podaci za skolsku godinu 2024/2025 za Republiku Srpsku, Federaciju BiH, i distrikt Brcko.

Analiza broja ucenika u osnovnim skolama (svih 9 razreda) 2024/2025 i poredjenje sa zivorodjenima u periodu 2010 - 2018.

Opstina --- Broj ucenika 2024/2025 --- Zivorodjeni (2010 – 2018) --- (Razlika) --- (Razlika %)

Prijedor --- 4.680 --- 5.056 --- (-376) --- (-7,44%)
Kostajnica --- 280 --- 266 --- (+14) --- (+5,26%)
Kozarska Dubica --- 1.133 --- 1.205 --- (-72) --- (-5,98%)
Krupa na Uni --- 55 --- 71 --- (-16) --- (-22,54%)
Novi Grad --- 1.338 --- 1.481 --- (-143) --- (-9,66%)
Oštra Luka --- 144 --- 178 --- (-34) --- (-19,10%)
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Regija Prijedor --- 7.630 --- 8.257 --- (-627) --- (-7,59%)
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Čelinac --- 1.161 --- 1.311 --- (-150) --- (-11,44%)
Banja Luka --- 16.927 --- 18.184 --- (-1.257) --- (-6,91%)
Gradiška --- 3.237 --- 3.509 --- (-272) --- (-7,75%)
Istočni Drvar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2) --- (-100,00%)
Jezero --- 90 --- 69 --- (+21) --- (+30,43%)
Kneževo --- 451 --- 650 --- (-199) --- (-30,62%)
Kotor Varoš --- 1.274 --- 1.541 --- (-267) --- (-17,33%)
Kupres (RS) --- 10 --- 12 --- (-2) --- (-16,67%)
Laktaši --- 2.957 --- 2.831 --- (+126) --- (+4,45%)
Mrkonjić Grad --- 961 --- 1.181 --- (-220) --- (-18,63%)
Petrovac --- 79 --- 46 --- (+33) --- (+71,74%)
Prnjavor --- 2.360 --- 2.735 --- (-375) --- (-13,81%)
Ribnik --- 345 --- 349 --- (-4) --- (-1,15%)
Srbac --- 1.260 --- 1.257 --- (+3) --- (+0,24%)
Šipovo --- 628 --- 700 --- (-72) --- (-10,29%)
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Regija Banja Luka --- 31.740 --- 34.377 --- (-2.637) --- (-7,67%)
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Brod --- 901 --- 904 --- (-3) --- (-0,33%)
Donji Žabar --- 140 --- 18 --- (+122) --- (+677,78%)
Derventa --- 1.812 --- 1.925 --- (-113) --- (-5,87%)
Doboj --- 4.420 --- 4.838 --- (-418) --- (-8,64%)
Modriča --- 1.554 --- 1.566 --- (-12) --- (-0,77%)
Pelagićevo --- 194 --- 26 --- (+168) --- (+646,15%)
Petrovo --- 375 --- 423 --- (-48) --- (-11,35%)
Stanari --- 428 --- 457 --- (-29) --- (-6,35%)
Šamac --- 832 --- 512 --- (+320) --- (+62,50%)
Teslić --- 2.654 --- 3.079 --- (-425) --- (-13,80%)
Vukosavlje --- 216 --- 277 --- (-61) --- (-22,02%)
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Regija Doboj --- 13.526 --- 14.025 --- (-499) --- (-3.56%)
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Bratunac --- 1.075 --- 1.092 --- (-17) --- (-1,56%)
Bijeljina --- 8.047 --- 8.164 --- (-117) --- (-1,43%)
Zvornik --- 3.263 --- 3.518 --- (-255) --- (-7,25%)
Lopare --- 443 --- 511 --- (-68) --- (-13,31%)
Milići --- 469 --- 559 --- (-90) --- (-16,10%)
Osmaci --- 179 --- 209 --- (-30) --- (-14,35%)
Srebrenica --- 401 --- 462 --- (-61) --- (-13,20%)
Šekovići --- 315 --- 371 --- (-56) --- (-15,09%)
Ugljevik --- 958 --- 971 --- (-13) --- (-1,34%)
Vlasenica --- 604 --- 688 --- (-84) --- (-12,21%)
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Regija Bijeljina --- 15.754 --- 16.545 --- (-791) --- (-4,78%)
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Grad Istočno Sarajevo --- 5.236 --- 4.679 --- (+557) --- (+11,90%)
Istočna Ilidža --- 1.422 --- 1.120 --- (+302) --- (+26,96%)
Istočni Stari Grad --- 9 --- 87 --- (-78) --- (-89,66%)
Istočno Novo Sarajevo --- 1.225 --- 991 --- (+234) --- (23,61%)
Pale --- 1.681 --- 1.590 --- (+91) --- (+5,72%)
Sokolac --- 831 --- 839 --- (-8) --- (-0,95%)
Trnovo --- 68 --- 52 --- (+16) --- (+30,77%)
Han Pijesak --- 205 --- 225 --- (-20) --- (-8,89%)
Rogatica --- 753 --- 785 --- (-32) --- (-4,08%)
Rudo --- 239 --- 211 --- (+28) --- (+13,27%)
Višegrad --- 535 --- 442 --- (+93) --- (+21,04%)
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Regija Istocno Sarajevo --- 6.968 --- 6.342 --- (+626) --- (+9,87%)
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Berkovići --- 135 --- 127 --- (+8) --- (+6,30%)
Bileća --- 821 --- 837 --- (-16) --- (-1,91%)
Čajniče --- 225 --- 246 --- (-21) --- (-8,54%)
Foča --- 1.059 --- 1.084 --- (-25) --- (-2,31%)
Gacko --- 690 --- 716 --- (-26) --- (-3,63%)
Trebinje --- 2.602 --- 2.480 --- (+122) --- (+4,92%)
Istočni Mostar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2) --- (-100,00%)
Kalinovik --- 49 --- 75 --- (-26) --- (-34,67%)
Ljubinje --- 247 --- 257 --- (-10) --- (-3,89%)
Nevesinje --- 838 --- 832 --- (+6) --- (+0,72%)
Novo Goražde --- 62 --- 45 --- (+17) --- (+37,78%)
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Regija Trebinje --- 6.728 --- 6.701 --- (+27) --- (+0,40%)
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Republika Srpska --- 82.346 --- 86.247 --- (-3.901) --- (-4,52%)
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Brcko Distrikt --- 5.735 --- 8.169 --- (-2.434) --- (-29,80%)
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Bosanski Petrovac --- 313 --- 327 --- (-14) --- (-4,28%)
Bužim --- 1.466 --- 1.889 --- (-423) --- (-22,39%)
Bosanska Krupa --- 1.486 --- 2.128 --- (-642) --- (-30,17%)
Bihać --- 3.368 --- 4.473 --- (-1.105) --- (-24,70%)
Cazin --- 3.582 --- 4.769 --- (-1.187) --- (-24,89%)
Ključ --- 451 --- 655 --- (-204) --- (-31,15%)
Sanski Most --- 1.116 --- 1.546 --- (-430) --- (-27,81%)
Velika Kladuša --- 3.076 --- 4.123 --- (-1.047) --- (-25,39%)
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USK --- 14.858 --- 19.910 --- (-5.052) --- (-25,37%)
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Domaljevac-Šamac --- 122 --- 153 --- (-31) --- (-20,26%)
Orašje --- 750 --- 908 --- (-158) --- (-17,40%)
Odžak --- 570 --- 649 --- (-79) --- (-12,17%)
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PK --- 1.442 --- 1.710 --- (-268) --- (-15,67%)
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Banovići --- 1.867 --- 2.205 --- (-338) --- (-15,33%)
Čelić --- 620 --- 612 --- (+8) --- (+1,31%)
Doboj-Istok --- 849 --- 902 --- (-53) --- (-5,88%)
Gračanica --- 3.894 --- 4.292 --- (-398) --- (-9,27%)
Tuzla --- 8.187 --- 9.189 --- (-1.002) --- (-10,90%)
Gradačac --- 3.238 --- 3.340 --- (-102) --- (-3,05%)
Lukavac --- 2.693 --- 3.349 --- (-656) --- (-19,59%)
Srebrenik --- 3.361 --- 3.474 --- (-113) --- (-3,25%)
Živinice --- 4.750 --- 5.432 --- (-682) --- (-12,56%)
Kalesija --- 2.518 --- 2.900 --- (-382) --- (-13,17%)
Kladanj --- 634 --- 845 --- (-211) --- (-24,97%)
Sapna --- 510 --- 711 --- (-201) --- (-28,27%)
Teočak --- 315 --- 451 --- (-136) --- (-30,16%)
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TK --- 33.436 --- 37.702 --- (-4.266) --- (-11,32%)
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Breza --- 1.171 --- 921 --- (+250) --- (+27,14%)
Doboj-Jug --- 338 --- 424 --- (-86) --- (-20,28%)
Zenica --- 9.338 --- 10.635 --- (-1.297) --- (-12,20%)
Kakanj --- 3.284 --- 3.674 --- (-390) --- (-10,62%)
Maglaj --- 1.523 --- 1.861 --- (-338) --- (-18,16%)
Olovo --- 616 --- 693 --- (-77) --- (-11,11%)
Tešanj --- 4.434 --- 4.490 --- (-56) --- (-1,25%)
Usora --- 189 --- 255 --- (-66) --- (-25,88%)
Vareš --- 365 --- 426 --- (-61) --- (-14,32%)
Visoko --- 3.528 --- 3.517 --- (+11) --- (+0,31%)
Zavidovići --- 2.710 --- 3.027 --- (-317) --- (-10,47%)
Žepče --- 2.129 --- 2.394 --- (-265) --- (-11,07%)
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ZDK --- 29.625 --- 32.317 --- (-2.692) --- (-8,33%)
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Foča (FBiH) --- 101 --- 96 --- (+5) --- (+5,21%)
Goražde --- 1.831 --- 1.926 --- (-95) --- (-4,93%)
Pale (FBiH) --- 41 --- 49 --- (-8) --- (-16,33%)
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BPK --- 1.973 --- 2.071 --- (-98) --- (-4,73%)
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Bugojno --- 2.167 --- 2.379 --- (-212) --- (-8,91%)
Busovača --- 1.256 --- 1.520 --- (-264) --- (-17,37%)
Dobretići --- 7 --- 28 --- (-21) --- (-75,00%)
Donji Vakuf --- 1.032 --- 1.253 --- (-221) --- (-17,64%)
Fojnica --- 804 --- 1.015 --- (-211) --- (-20,79%)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje --- 1.083 --- 1.395 --- (-312) --- (-22,37%)
Jajce --- 1.453 --- 1.702 --- (-249) --- (-14,63%)
Kiseljak --- 1.766 --- 1.556 --- (+210) --- (+13,50%)
Kreševo --- 232 --- 328 --- (-96) --- (-29,27%)
Novi Travnik --- 1.814 --- 2.135 --- (-321) --- (-15,04%)
Travnik --- 3.884 --- 4.310 --- (-426) --- (-9,88%)
Vitez --- 1.954 --- 2.065 --- (-111) --- (-5,38%)
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SBK --- 17.452 --- 19.686 --- (-2.234) --- (-11,35%)
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Čapljina --- 1.622 --- 1.614 --- (+8) --- (+0,50%)
Čitluk --- 1.626 --- 1.444 --- (+182) --- (+12,60%)
Mostar --- 8.709 --- 9.204 --- (-495) --- (-5,38%)
Jablanica --- 609 --- 695 --- (-86) --- (-12,37%)
Konjic --- 1.617 --- 1.692 --- (-75) --- (-4,43%)
Neum --- 295 --- 59 --- (+236) --- (+400,00%)
Prozor --- 682 --- 852 --- (-170) --- (-19,95%)
Ravno --- 15 --- 3 --- (+12) --- (+400,00%)
Stolac --- 742 --- 810 --- (-68) --- (-8,40%)
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HNK --- 15.917 --- 16.373 --- (-456) --- (-2,79%)
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Široki Brijeg --- 2.576 --- 2.750 --- (-174) --- (-6,33%)
Grude --- 1.196 --- 962 --- (+234) --- (+24,32%)
Ljubuški --- 1.815 --- 1.825 --- (-10) --- (-0,55%)
Posušje --- 1.596 --- 1.323 --- (+273) --- (+20,63%)
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ZHK --- 7.183 --- 6.860 --- (+323) --- (+4,71%)
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Grad Sarajevo --- 24.721 --- 27.397 --- (-2.676) --- (-9,77%)
Centar Sarajevo --- 5.481 --- 5.606 --- (-125) --- (-2,23%)
Novi Grad Sarajevo --- 11.449 --- 11.978 --- (-529) --- (-4,42%)
Novo Sarajevo --- 5.674 --- 6.387 --- (-713) --- (-11,16%)
Stari Grad Sarajevo --- 2.117 --- 3.426 --- (-1.309) --- (-38,21%)
Hadžići --- 2.043 --- 2.326 --- (-283) --- (-12,17%)
Ilidža --- 6.805 --- 6.684 --- (+121) --- (+1,81%)
Ilijaš --- 1.912 --- 2.596 --- (-694) --- (-26,35%)
Trnovo (FBiH) --- 46 --- 108 --- (-62) --- (-57,41%)
Vogošća --- 2.951 --- 2.892 --- (+59) --- (+2,04%)
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KS --- 38.478 --- 42.003 --- (-3.525) --- (-8,39%)
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Bosansko Grahovo --- 64 --- 63 --- (+1) --- (+1,59%)
Drvar --- 300 --- 297 --- (+3) --- (+1,01%)
Glamoč --- 194 --- 224 --- (-30) --- (-13,39%)
Livno --- 1,402 --- 1,692 --- (-290) --- (-17,14%)
Kupres --- 168 --- 189 --- (-21) --- (-11,11%)
Tomislavgrad --- 1.183 --- 1.359 --- (-176) --- (-12,95%)
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HBK --- 3.311 --- 3.824 --- (-513) --- (-13,42%)
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FBiH --- 163.675 --- 182.456 --- (-18.781) --- (-10,29%)
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BiH --- 251.756 --- 276.872 --- (-25.116) --- (-9,07%)
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Komentari:

1. Za Brcko je stvarni minus manji jer se upisuju rodjeni iz Republike Srpske i iz Federacije koji ne idu u skolu u Brckom.

Ako se pretpostavi da je procentualna razlika u broju rodjenih i ucenika ista u opstinama Samac, Pelagicevo i Donji Zabar kao i u ostatku Dobojske regije, onda iz RS ima 715 rodjenih u DB (79 po generaciji).

Ako se pretpostavi da je procentualna razlika u broju rodjenih i ucenika ista u opstinama Celic, Gradacac i Srebrenik kao i u ostatku Tuzlanskog kantona onda iz FBiH ima 910 rodjenih u DB (101 po generaciji).

Ostatak minusa u Brckom je uglavnom zbog iseljavanja.

2. Za opstinu Stanari rodjeni 2010. godine su ubrojani pod opstinom Doboj (najbolje je te dve opstine racunati zajedno).

3. Mnoge opstine uz granicu sa Hrvatskom i Srbijom (Neum, Grude, Visegrad, Rudo itd.) imaju vise prvacica nego rodjenih jer nisu svi rodjeni u Hrvatskoj i Srbiji koji imaju prebivaliste u BiH ukljuceni u konacne podatke o rodjenima.

4. Razlika izmedju rodjenih i ucenika je zapravo manja u opstini Kotor Varos jer je dobar deo Bosnjaka upisan u odelenje osnovne skole "Prvi mart" iz Jelaha (Tesanj) u Federaciji. Zbog toga je i razlika veca za opstinu Tesanj.

https://faktor.ba/bosna-i-hercegovina/a ... ezik/42072

5. Razlika izmedju rodjenih i ucenika je zapravo manja u opstini Milici (a i u opstinama Vlasenica i Bratunac) jer dobar deo Bosnjaka imaju nastavu po federalnom nastavnom planu i programu u Edukativnom Centru Nova Kasaba (opstina Milici) koja je podrucna skola OS "Malta" u opstini Novo Sarajevo. Zbog toga je i razlika veca za opstinu Novo Sarajevo (FBiH).

https://rtvtk.ba/edukativni-centar-nova ... 0-ucenika/

6. Bosnjaci iz Kreseva idu u skolu u opstini Kiseljak sto objasnjava takav minus u Kresevu. Takodje, minus u Usori je zbog Bosnjaka koji su, prema FZS-u. rodjeni u Usori a tamo ne idu u skolu (verovatno su iz Tesnja).

7. Postoji nekoliko opstina gde se jasno vidi da se skoluju deca iz drugih opstina koja zive uz granicu. Primeri su Ilijas --> Breza, Kalinovik --> Trnovo (RS), Prnjavor --> Laktasi/Srbac, Trnovo (FBiH) --> Ilidza, Mrkonjic Grad --> Jezero itd.


Ovo poredjenje otprilike pokazuje koliko dece iseli u prosecnom periodu od 10-11 godina nakon rodjenja, jer je proecna starost osnovnoskolaca 10-11 godina.
Podaci o broju ucenika mogu se koristiti i da se proceni populacija 0 - 20 godina jer se radi o populaciji 6 - 14. Generacije 0 - 5 su nesto manje a generacije 15 - 20 su nesto vece od njih. Sa preciznom stopom fertiliteta, moze se napraviti procena za generacije njihovih roditelja. S druge strane, ovi podaci nisu korisni za generacije 45+.

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bi ... B_1_BS.pdf
https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/
https://www.rzs.rs.ba/static/uploads/sa ... 3-2024.pdf

Neum 5 puta vise prvasica nego rodjenih.
Ravno 5 puta vise prvasica nego rodjenih.

Pougarci djelom idu u Jajce u školu?

Vjerojatno iselili. Dvjestotinjak stanovnika svega živi u Dobretićima. Nekidan je bila reportaža baš o njima.

Neum 5 puta vise prvasica nego rodjenih.
Ravno 5 puta vise prvasica nego rodjenih.

Pardon, osnovnoskolaca.

Cisto da znamo da se ubuduce broj rodjenih u tim opcinama, koji god da je, treba pomnoziti s 5 da bi se dobilo pravo stanje na terenu.

Pazite, 19 000 osnovnoskolaca je manje u FBiH nego rodjenih u povezanom razdoblju. U tom broju, Hrvati u 4 vecinska hrvatska kantona doprinose sa sveukupno jedva 600, ako i toliko. To je 3%. A pricamo o najgorem desetljecu za Hrvate. Bosnjaci, cemu se nadate?

Ma i više, sigurno ih ima pogotovo u Ravnom šta idu u RH, sigurno netko ko živi bubam u Ivanici ne ide u Ravno nego u Dubrovnik. Kao i u Čapljini s Metkovićem.

Ovdje neki tek sad otkrivaju toplu vodu.

Znamo odavno za sve to. A opet procenat HPP pao sa 19% na 16% za 10 godina.

Hrvati Bosne nezaustavljivo nestaju. Nestat će.
Hrvati Hercegovine me ne zanimaju.

Hrvati Bosne nezaustavljivo nestaju. Nestat će.
Hrvati Hercegovine me ne zanimaju.

Hrvati Bosne nezaustavljivo nestaju. Nestat će.
Hrvati Hercegovine me ne zanimaju.

Gdje da potpišem da se dio Hercegovine koji je kontrolisao HVO sutra pripoji Hrvatskoj?

Šta/ko je Turija?

Zar nam udio 2023 nije narastao u SBŽ