A topic about President-elect Mr. Donald Trump already exists in Croatian, so here is an English version.

The assumption is, Croats and Serbs in Bosnia-Herzegovina may go for the independence option in the near future, and a peaceful disintegration of this complex federal country. Bosnian Muslims want more power and threaten to attack Christian federal states if they try to secede. We hear verbal threats and there is also TONS of hatred... not sure if they have enough ability to perform the actual aggression (no legal army, while "support" of crazy Erdogan is verbal and I'm not sure that even Turkey, thousands of kilometers away and with it's own problems, would support an aggression on Serbs and Croats situated in the heart of Europe, in what would basically be an attempt of Bosnian Muslims trying to capture more territory in this part Europe)...

They managed to capture around 15 000 km2 during the war 25 years ago, and establish 5 muslim cantons + 2 additional mixed cantons (these two mixed cantons are the source of most inter-ethnic conflicts and violence in B&H, together with a few municipalities in the Serbian Republic with significant Muslim population). Brcko District is a point of possible first conflict.

Robbie,

I briefly looked at the topic on the politika forum. I think there are a few major assumptions that we are being made.

1) This will be self contained within Bosnia and Herzegovina.

I don't see this to be the case. Especially with Montenegro being invited to join NATO and some of the recent events down there. Could there be forces that destabilize Montenegro at the same time a crisis unfolds in BiH? We need to remember that as of right now, there are two places on the Eastern Adriatic not in NATO - Montenegro and BiH (Neum). Could an outside power like Moscow involve themselves in "securing" parts of the Eastern Adriatic while there is a crisis in the region?

2) The role of Turkey.

I'm of the opinion that Erdogan will have bigger problems before too long. I know he believes he is some Ottoman sultan wannabe, but as of right now Turkey is technically at war in Syria. http://www.newsweek.com/turkeys-erdogan ... sad-526478

Not only is Turkey at war, but it is also kind of at war with Russia and Iran. Turkey wants to end Assad's reign and both Russia and Iran are supporting Assad. Russia supports the Kurds, Turkey does not. Any conflict between Turkey and Russia will de-facto keep Turkey out of the BiH. I also think that any military collapse of Turkey will have massive geopolitical repercussions in the Middle East. Sarajevo will not get too far if Turkey cannot support them.

3) Hypothetical conflict will unfold only within the borders of the two (three) entities.

A collapse of Dayton basically means the end of any reason for the entity borders to remain in tact. But, in reality, everything in Bosnia and Herzegovina would be up for grabs again. You correctly pointed out Brcko as a flashpoint but I think there are others. I can see a scenarios where certain areas (like Brcko) are contested between all three groups.

And no I do not think the two "Christian federal states" would be allies either, especially if one has the backing of Russia.

Some thoughts.

It would be unwise for Croats to be the first to break the Dayton Peace Accords. If that's the case then it would give the moral argument to the Bosniaks and Serbs fueling their propaganda to show we're a 'troublesome bunch.' HB Croats need to be patient and wait for the Bosniaks/Serbs to make the first major move that threatens peace. Then it's completely within our rights to react to defend ourselves and our interests and it also gives Croatia legal reason to get involved on our behalf (as stipulated in the Dayton Peace Accords). If we Croats make the first move then it ties our hands and the hands of our supporters in Croatia and in the world.

I suspect the Serbs will be the first to clearly and definitively defy the terms of the Dayton accords which will give us Croats a window to assert our autonomy officially (perhaps even independence).

I fully agree with this and this is a good understanding of how the real world works (realpolitik).

I would add that we do have some teritorial autonomy, even today.
https://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%BDupa ... ercegovine
Also some political, legal and judiciary mechanisms to protect our interests.
But not enough. Muslims are blocking establishing of a fuckin' public TV station in Croatian language.

Anyways, these are 5 most important things that we do have right now at this moment:
1) cantons, which have similar powers as US states (each canton has a government, a constitution etc.)
2) Tree-member Presidency, instead of one President (which would always be a Muslim, unless they say so)
3) House of Peoples of Federation, which ensures that Croatians always participate in the federal government, and always have a President of Federation (note the difference between the Federation B&H and B&H)
4) Governments of B&H and Federation B&H, with 1/3 Croatian quota for ministers
5) House of peoples of Bosnia-Herzegovina, which makes sure that every change of the Constitution must be approved by Croats (this way nobody can take away our mechanisms listed 1-4 above)

This is enough that we long-term survive as an important factor.

We can veto many things, but we cannot impose things. There's still a lot of room for political aggression on Croats.

P.S. As English is your first language, and you are able to fully understand articles in Croatian, I would invite you to contribute to some Wikipedia articles related to Croats in B&H. That helps spread knowledge about us.

The ones that is their job to know, allready know, and have a formed opinion about it. And they act upon that opinion, as we can all see.

General public doesn't give a fuq about our issues down here. Only way their attention will be brought is if we were to start shooting again. Or a series of terrorist attacks.

I was mostly referring to general and cultural influence of our population.

There are over 1 million Croats born in B&H and Gd knows how many descendants, within B&H and around the world (130k just registered on our FB fun page!), and we are obligated to comply to some standards.

Donald Trump may intervene in Bosnia&Herzegovina with bombing of Bosnian Muslims in his new campaign against radical islam. Let`s all hope this happen.

I think they allready know your problems here. What do you expect them to contribute to your cause, i'm not quite shure.

They can spread that information to the media in the countries they live in, and find that the population of those countries doesn't care about your predicament. Because it's peace, no one is killing anybody, no one cares.

Or they can write a letter to Plenković or Kolinda, who allready know more about the subject than they do.

I've already created two Wikipedia pages a long time ago. They have been edited during that time but the crux of what I wrote still stands. I translated a lot info from Croatian history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Croatia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Croatia

These information on Wiki did not exist for a long time but I felt it was important.

I've already spoken to a lot Americans and Canadians about Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Americans/Canadians I'm talking about were not the uneducated mass but had some kind of knowledge about Europe and the geopolitical climate there. Sadly, they've already head Bosniak and Serbian perspectives about BiH but never a Croatian perspective. After introducing them to the Croatian perspective they became more interested in the region as a whole. This knowledge may not have any real impact but one of my friends that has a fascination with Europe has talked to me many times about Croatia and Bosnia and it just so happens his uncle is a U.S. Senator and I have sat at their dinner table before and discussed the topic with them before. The point is you never know who you might be able to reach unless you try. ;)

http://www.telegraf.rs/english/2461898- ... erzegovina

I found the above article interesting. I don't know how much of it is accurate (as in possibly misquoted) but Trump's adviser seems to be a strong advocate of negotiating with Russia over Bosnia's future. The end of it really caught my eye:

"Fares then believed that the US and Russia should reach agreement on the Balkans. The agreement should be signed by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Croatia and the new autonomous territories for the alliance against jihadist terrorists and deny access of networks of Salafis and Homeins in this countries."

By new autonomous territories could this be referring to Herceg Bosna finally recognized as a legitimate entity? RS and HB would definitely be established as bulwarks politically to control the rise of radical Islam in BiH.

If this does become the foreign policy agenda of the Trump administration in the region then I'm curious to how Croatia, Serbia, and the EU will react. Most certainly the EU will want to prevent this and Serbia will probably support it if it means recognizing Kosovo is lost but what will Croatia do? Hopefully Croatia doesn't play the role of EU lackey and thinks about its own interests first.

Trump's territory:

http://hms.ba/new-york-zbog-pokusaja-da ... edzepagic/

Robbie MO:

I think if we look at these scenarios from Sarajevo then we can condense them down to 3.

So as far as Sarajevo is concerned there are only 3 avenues available to Croats in BiH:

1) Political factor. Croats have a wide range of political/territorial autonomy. This means Croatians will maintain a political presence in the affairs of BiH. With autonomy comes media, and a Croatian point of view will be present when any agenda is set.

2) Cultural factor. Croatians have a wide range of cultural autonomy, with no real political influence in the country.

3) Katolička raja: Denationalizing Croatians and turning them into good Bosnian Catholics, that Sarajevo would parade around during Christmas and Easter to show the world how their Catholics wear their traditional folk costumes and celebrate major Catholic holidays.

If we expand on option 1, we would definitely include all 5 of the options that you presented, not to mention areas in media and finance that you did not mention. Also, Croatians in BiH need to thrive, not just survive.

With regards to Sarajevo, option 1 is out of the question. Option 2 would be preferred over option 1, but really option 3 is the best choice and if you think about it it is the point of view that a lot of their thinking comes from.

Think about it: why do marginal "Bosnian [Catholic]" individuals get so much press in their media? They have no influence in the BiH Croatian community but why parade them around so much unless you think that if you over expose them and somehow marginalize anyone else in the hope that these individuals will replace legitimate Croatian officials? This is not the middle ages.

Why be so opposed to a Croatian TV? Granted it would create a media space for a Croatian perspective on Croatian issues in BiH. I'm sure a lot of those issues would like to be swept under the rug by Sarajevo but I think the larger argument is that if there is no space for Croats in the media then Sarajevo will dictate what the Croatian agenda would be.

Ditto with the elites in Sarajevo. Consider the message of this gathering: http://poskok.info/wp/secija-veli-hrvat ... separatno/ - basically we [Sarajevo] will decide what is best for you.

The RS would probably be fine with options 2 or 3. Even though they say that they support option 1, they would want it to be weak and not strong. If it is a strong political structure, then there is the risk of encroaching on the RS which is the last thing they want to see.

Finally as a Croat, I like a strong option 1.

CIA novači poznavatelje hrvatskog jezika. https://www...know-croatian-care-for-a-million-kuna-annually-from-the-cia

De nosi ta sranja.
Jedan balkanski portal pročita površno i objavi pa se svi drugi zakače.

Jasno ti tamo piše da je US državljanstvo uvjet.