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Autor/ica Poruka
 Naslov: BOSNIA POWERLESS TO HALT DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE
PostPostano: 28 stu 2019, 12:23 
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Pridružen/a: 08 ruj 2010, 01:28
Postovi: 410
BOSNIA POWERLESS TO HALT DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE

https://balkaninsight.com/2019/11/21/bosnia-powerless-to-halt-demographic-decline/


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: BOSNIA POWERLESS TO HALT DEMOGRAPHIC DECLINE
PostPostano: 29 stu 2019, 06:24 
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Pridružen/a: 03 svi 2009, 10:29
Postovi: 68259
Lokacija: hrvatsko-bošnjačka Federacija
The census data is complete garbage, useless and extremely inflated by the country’s huge diaspora counted as resident population, and cannot even be used as a starting point of an estimate. Even after they lowered the first results from 3.8 million down to 3.5 million, by applying very mild filters, this just scratched the surface; it is believed that the realistic number is certainly below 3 million.

For instance, the majority Muslim municipality of Sanski Most, initially had the census data population fixed at 50 000, it was subsequently corrected down to 41 000. However, the local media reports that the true population is below 15 000. Indeed, all demographic-related data implies a few times smaller population. Voter turnout at 25% is the smallest in the world. The municipality has been having below 150 births per year recently, a number indeed expected for a population of around 17 000 (the population pyramid is regular, the population is not particularly old).

3.3 million for the population of BiH mentioned in the article as a “corrected value” is still a ridiculously high figure, given that the country has around 27 000 yearly births and 33 000 deaths. If we assume the same birth rate as in Croatia and Serbia, we obtain the population estimate of around 3.0 million. However Bosnia-Herzegovina has always had a traditionally younger population than neighboring countries, so if we reasonably assume a slightly higher birth rate for Bosnia, than the estimate of 2.7-2.8 million arises.

Indeed, the National Statistical Agency (not to be confused with the Federal Statistical Agency- “federal” is not the highest level in B&H) assumes the more realistic estimate to be around 2.7 million.

On top of this, the population is rapidly declining. This year, the European Union reported 53 000 working visas issued to the citizens of B&H in 2018 only. They are sought after as very good workers and “ideal” immigrants. European countries, notably Germany, Slovenia and Austria, are literally fighting to grab as much of the Western Balkan population as possible.

The good thing is, lowering the population will lower the risk and the intensity of any future conflicts in this ramshackle state.

Germany gets the vital population, the Balkans gets the peace. Sounds like an excellent trade to me.

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