It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse

BY JOHN HANNAHOCTOBER 7, 2015 - 3:29 PMfacebooktwittergoogle-plusredditemail
It’s Time for the United States to Start Worrying About a Saudi Collapse
As if there weren’t already enough problems to worry about in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia might be headed for trouble. From plummeting oil prices to foreign-policy missteps to growing tensions with Iran, a confluence of recent events is mounting to pose some serious challenges for the Saudi regime. If not properly managed, these events could eventually coalesce into a perfect storm that significantly increases the risk of instability within the kingdom, with untold consequences for global oil markets and security in the Middle East.

Here are some of the percolating problems that could throw the country off kilter.

Fissures Within the Royal Family. Last week, the Guardian published two letters that an anonymous Saudi prince recently circulated among senior members of the royal family, calling on them to stage a palace coup against King Salman. The letters allege that Salman, who ascended to the throne in January, and his powerful 30-something son Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have pursued dangerous policies that are leading the country to political, economic, and military ruin. In an interview with the Guardian, the prince insisted that his demand for a change in leadership not only had growing support within the royal family but across broader Saudi society as well. “The public [is] also pushing for this very hard,” he claimed. “They say you have to do this or the country will go to disaster.” The article, which includes the letters, written in Arabic, has been shared more than 15,000 times.

The Yemen War. The longer it drags on, the greater the risk that the Saudi intervention against Houthi rebels could become a serious source of internal dissension. In its story on the prince’s letters, the Guardian reported that “many Saudis are sickened by the sight of the Arab world’s richest country pummelling its poorest.” Particular blame is attached to Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also serves as the kingdom’s defense minister and by all accounts has been the driving force behind the war effort. Tagged with the unofficial nickname “Reckless,” Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been accused of rushing into Yemen without a clear strategy or exit plan, resulting in mounting costs in blood and treasure, an ever-expanding humanitarian crisis, and growing international criticism.

Economic Problems. Thanks largely to Saudi policy, oil prices plummeted by more than 50 percent in the past year. Facing a market glut due to the U.S. oil boom, Saudi strategy has been to maintain high production, fight for market share, allow prices to collapse, and wait for higher cost producers, particularly in America, to be driven out of business. With cheaper oil spurring increased demand and squeezing out excess supply, the theory was that higher prices would return before the kingdom ever felt any real economic pinch.

But it hasn’t quite worked out that way — at least not as quickly as the Saudis anticipated. Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget was based on the assumption that oil would be selling at about $90 per barrel. Today, it’s closer to half that. At the same time, the Saudis have incurred a rash of expenses that weren’t planned for, including those associated with King Salman’s ascendance to the throne (securing loyalty for a new king can be expensive business) and the war in Yemen.

The result is a budget deficit approaching 20 percent, well over $100 billion, requiring the Saudis to deplete their huge foreign exchange reserves at a record rate (about $12 billion per month) while also accelerating bond sales. The Saudis have reportedly liquidated more than $70 billion of their holdings with global asset managers in just the past 6 months.

While there’s no danger that the kingdom will run out of money anytime soon, the longer this trend of large budget deficits, lower oil prices, and declining foreign exchange reserves continues, the more nervous international markets will become — with potential implications for key indicators like credit rating and capital flight. Adding to long-term concerns is the fact that Saudi net oil exports have been in slow decline for years as internal energy consumption rises dramatically. Indeed, analysts now suggest that rapidly expanding domestic demand could render the kingdom a net importer of oil by the 2030s. It goes without saying that such a development poses a mortal threat to the kingdom, where oil sales still account for 80 to 90 percent of state revenues.

As for battling deficits by cutting expenses and imposing austerity, it’s hardly an attractive option for a government whose main weapon for staving off domestic discontent since the start of the 2011 Arab uprisings has been to shower its people with more free stuff. Energy subsidies alone have comprised about 20 percent of Saudi GDP. There are also extensive subsides for food, housing, water, and a wide range of other consumer goods. As they mull the risks of reform, you can be sure that the Saudis are acutely aware of the role that sharp increases in the cost of living played in triggering revolts across the Middle East, including in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen.

On top of its growing fiscal problems, the kingdom’s economy continues to be burdened by a rash of other ailments as well. Saudis under the age of 30 make up two-thirds of the population and approximately 30 percent of them don’t have jobs. And while hard numbers are difficult to get, reports of astonishingly high poverty rates among native Saudis persist, with some suggesting it could be as much as 25 percent.

Hajj tragedy. Two major disasters marred this year’s pilgrimage to Mecca: the collapse of a crane that killed more than 100, followed by a stampede that left at least 769 dead — with many unofficial counts insisting that the real number trampled could eventually reach the thousands. In the aftermath, the Saudis have been hit by a wave of unprecedented criticism over their management of the hajj. This is serious business, indeed. The House of Saud’s stewardship over Islam’s holiest sites goes to the very core of its claim to run the country. Call into question the royal family’s continued fitness to serve as custodians of Mecca and Medina and you’re quickly calling into question the political and religious legitimacy of the monarchy itself.

Escalating Conflict With Iran. Iran in particular has seized on the hajj tragedy to intensify tensions with the Saudis — which, of course, were already at fever pitch over the nuclear issue and Iran’s destabilizing activities throughout the region. More Iranians seemed to have died in the stampede than any other nationality; the latest count is 464, and it could still go higher. When the kingdom was slow in repatriating bodies, Iranian officials went on the attack. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned the Saudis that they could face a “brutal and violent reaction” if they “show the slightest disrespect to Iranian pilgrims.” Khamenei said that Iran had so far shown great restraint in the face of Saudi offenses, “but they should know that Iran’s hand is superior to many others and has more capabilities.” He concluded that, “If [Iran] wants to react to disturbing and sinister elements, [Saudi Arabia’s] situation will not be good.” Iran’s former defense minister, Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, followed up by telling the Saudis to take Khamenei’s warning “seriously” because Iran was capable of giving a “strong and crushing” response to Saudi wrongdoings.

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, called for Saudi Arabia to forfeit management of the hajj to a committee of Muslims. The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, charged that “after [the Islamic State], Saudi Arabia has inflicted the greatest harm on Islam.” Revolutionary Guard Gen. Ali Fazli, deputy commander of Iran’s internal security force, the Basij, claimed that the kingdom’s support of the Islamic State and other Sunni extremist organizations had greatly contributed to the Mecca disaster. Speaking about an upcoming Shiite religious celebration, he expressed hope that “one day, with the fall of [the House] of al-Saud, we will be able to celebrate Eid al-Ghadir at its true location” — meaning, of course, Mecca.

Beyond the hajj tragedy, Iran appears to be escalating its challenge to Saudi interests in other theaters as well. On Sept. 30, the kingdom announced that it had seized an Iranian fishing boat loaded with weapons on its way to resupply Houthi rebels fighting the Saudi coalition in Yemen. The next day, the kingdom’s neighbor and close ally, Bahrain, said it had uncovered a bomb-making factory with close links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Bahrain immediately withdrew its ambassador from Tehran and declared Iran’s top envoy persona non grata “in light of continued Iranian meddling in the affairs of the kingdom of Bahrain … in order to create sectarian strife and to impose hegemony and control.” The next day, Iran retaliated by evicting the Bahraini chargé d’affaires.

And in Syria, of course, the past several weeks have witnessed the full-blown emergence of an Iranian-Russian military coalition to keep the Assad regime in power and battle rebels that the kingdom supports. In conjunction with the start of a major bombing campaign by Russian combat planes, Iran has allegedly sent hundreds of more troops to Syria to help lead a new ground offensive to reclaim territory lost to forces backed by the Saudis.

U.S. Retrenchment. Russia’s dramatic intervention in Syria has underscored a much broader threat now rocking the kingdom: the growing reality that America is abandoning its traditional role as guarantor of Middle East stability. That’s of course very bad news for the Saudis, who have hitched their survival for 70 years to Pax Americana. Now, that U.S.-defended order appears to be unraveling before their eyes. Instead, the new normal is Washington cutting diplomatic deals that promise to embolden the kingdom’s worst enemy in Iran, while protesting meekly as its main geopolitical rival, Russia, seeks to overturn the region’s balance of power. As surely as night follows day, the rapid decline of American power and reliability inevitably leaves Saudi Arabia increasingly exposed and vulnerable.

No one has gotten rich betting on the House of Saud’s early demise. Over the decades, they’ve shown remarkable staying power in the face of political, ideological, and military currents that have swept away lesser regimes. So predicting that the royal family could now be on the cusp of real trouble is a bit of a fool’s errand.

That said, the dangers should be taken seriously. The regional environment that the kingdom faces is perhaps unprecedented in its hostility. The Middle East is collapsing, its state system in free fall. The Arab Spring long ago turned into an Islamist Winter. An Iranian-Russian military axis hungry for hegemony and higher oil prices gathers strength on Arabia’s borders. And America is headed for the exits, leaving little in its wake but demoralized allies, emboldened adversaries, and chaos.

All the while, as described above, the challenges besetting the kingdom internally slowly continue to mount. Call up any list of warning signs that a society may be approaching the danger zone with respect to possible instability and match it up against what seems to be happening in the kingdom today. Growing elite fissures: check. Mired in a costly foreign war: check. Increasing economic stress: check. Signs of eroding legitimacy: check. Rising power of hostile foreign actors: check. Declining power of traditional foreign protectors: check.

Of course, it’s hard, if not impossible, to gauge whether any of these factors are close to reaching something like a tipping point for the Saudis. Again, if history is any guide, they probably are not. We may still be at the very early stages where everything remains quite manageable through wise and timely decision-making.

What does seem safe to say is that most of the key indicators now appear to be headed in the wrong direction simultaneously — perhaps for the first time ever. In that sense, there could be a greater risk than in the past that, left unattended, these negative trends might eventually converge or cascade in ways that could overwhelm the system.

Yes, the risks that the worst will happen may be low. But the consequences of widespread instability in the kingdom are potentially so deleterious to U.S. interests that the risks should nevertheless be heeded. As bad as things are now in the region, a meltdown in Saudi Arabia would make the current crisis pale in comparison.

While the United States may be severely limited in terms of what it can do in the short term to help the kingdom address its mounting challenges internally, it still has significant capability to alleviate some of the rising external threats and pressures that the Saudis face. That is surely America’s comparative advantage: the ability to reassure key strategic partners of our commitment to their security, and our determination to maintain a regional correlation of forces that favors the United States and its friends while deterring our common adversaries.

But that is precisely the role that the Obama administration has so disastrously failed — or, more accurately, refused — to perform over the past several years, in the process undermining the morale and confidence of already fragile friends while super-charging the ambitions and aggression of their worst enemies.

The question now is whether the Obama administration is even capable of recovering from the geopolitical mess it has triggered. Does it even have a clue about the disastrously destabilizing chain of events that have been unleashed by its very purposeful decision to put a “closed for business” sign on Pax Americana in the Middle East? Does it at last understand that what replaces the abandonment of U.S. leadership in the region is not some virtuous equilibrium or balance of power among local competitors, but accelerating levels of violence, extremism, and chaos? Does it have any idea of how it would go about the arduous task of rebuilding the strategic partnerships that its policies have so badly undermined, and stemming the rising tsunami of disorder that now threatens to swamp the region and U.S. interests?

Alas, there’s absolutely no reason to believe that the answer to any of these questions is yes. In which case, the risks will continue to grow that on top of all the other disasters that President Obama will bequeath to his successor, he may yet add one more: an increasingly unstable and perilous situation in Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest exporter of oil, the site of Islam’s holiest sites, and a country awash, in almost equal measure, in advanced American weapons and angry Wahhabis.

PALESTINCI su zapalili u petak prije zore grobnicu Josipa kojeg štuju židovi u Nablusu na sjeveru Zapadne obale, objavile su palestinska policija i izraelska vojska.

Više desetaka Palestinaca bacalo je Molotovljeve koktele na grobnicu, mjesto hodočašća religioznih židova i izvor jakih tenzija između Izraelaca i Palestinca u prošlosti, istaknula je palestinska policija.

Do napada koji je uzrokovao veliku štetu dolazi dok Palestince i Izraelce već dva tjedna suprotstavlja sukob u kojem su poginule 32 osobe a više od tisuću ih je ranjeno na palestinskoj strani, dok je sedam mrtvih i više desetaka ranjenih na izraelskoj.

Za židove, grobnica sadrži posmrtne ostatke Josipa, jednog od dvanaest sinova Jakova, kojega su braća prodala i odvela u Egipat odakle je negovo tijelo vraćeno po bibliskoj tradiciji.

Christian churches in Indonesia province to be closed over Muslim groups’ pressure
Published time: 18 Oct, 2015 20:20

Authorities in an Indonesian province in Northern Sumatra have decided to shut down several Christian churches just days after a church was burned down by a mob and clashes between Christian and Muslims broke out.
Local government in the conservative Aceh province, which has a Muslim majority, ordered 10 Christian churches to be closed down next week after a group of hardline Muslims demanded that they be shut, deeming the houses of worship to be illegal.

“Ten churches have been identified as not having proper permits and should be closed,” said Hambali Sinaga, head of the local chapter of the hardline group Islamic Defenders Front, as quoted by Reuters.

He also urged that local authorities implement the measures until Monday and expressed hope that “there will be no violence again tomorrow," referring to recent clashes in the province.


At the same time, local government claimed that it had discussed the issue with the Christian groups and religious leaders in the Aceh province’s Singkil district, where the churches are located. According to authorities, members of the local Christian communities admitted that six churches were illegal due to a lack of required building permits and agreed to dismantle them.

“All houses of worship, regardless of the religion, need to be in accordance with the laws of Aceh,” Bardan Sahidi, a member of the provincial parliament, told Reuters after the meeting with politicians and religious figures, including officials from the Indonesian ministry of religious affairs.

Local Christian groups did not comment on the situation.

The decision to close the churches was made after a recent escalation in tensions in the province. A mob of Muslim residents including the members of the two Muslim hardline groups called Islamic Defenders Front and the Aceh Singkil Islamic Care Youth Students Association (PPI) burned down a church they deemed illegal.

On Tuesday, as many as 700 Muslims arrived in Suka Makmur village in Aceh province and burned down the local church claiming it was unlicensed due to the lack of permits. One attacker was killed and three more injured when the Christian villagers tried to defend their house of worship

About 500 police and military officers previously deployed to the village failed to stop the attack and arson. Later, they claimed they had been outnumbered, Indonesian Jakarta Post reports.


“We knew [about conflict involving the church] from four months ago. This is why I truly regret the fact that the arson happened,” National Police chief Gen. Badrodin Haiti said on Wednesday, as quoted by Jakarta Post.

Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, condemned the attack and called on all parties to halt violence in his twitter.

“Stop violence in Aceh Singkil. Any act of violence, whatever the reasons behind it, not to mention if it is related to religion and faith, will kill diversity —Jkw,” he wrote.


The president also ordered Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan and the national police chief to take immediate actions to prevent any further escalation and ensure peace in the province.

According to police, many Christians left their homes and moved to the neighboring provinces fearing new outbreaks of violence with more than 4000 people leaving the area.
“We are still afraid that an incident could occur again if [the situation is] not handled properly,” congregation member Silaban said on Wednesday, as quoted by Jakarta Post.


Some 1,300 police and military officers have since been deployed in the area in order to patrol the streets and guard the churches.

"At the moment things are calm but we are on standby for any further incidents," said a spokesman for Aceh police adding that those, who fled the province, returned to their homes.

Most Indonesians practice a moderate from of Islam but the population of Aceh sticks to more strict religious norms making the province the only Indonesian region to implement Sharia law. In 2005, Aceh was granted special autonomy that allowed for the introduction of Sharia law, in order to end decades of violence motivated by separatism.

According to a 2006 statute, church officials are required to provide a list of names and signatures of 90 congregation members and receive written support from at least 60 locals as well as from a village chief in order to get a permission to build a church in Aceh. The first ‘unlicensed’ churches were closed by the local government in May 2012, Vatican Radio reports.

ISIL iz Libije objavio video ubijanja (vjerojatno muslimana). Vezali ga za auto i vukli ulicama dok mu ruke nisu otpale od trenja. Sve do ramena. A on još živ u agoniji vrišti.
Islam stvarno "nadahnjuje" ljude da budu ogromne zvijeri bez imalo duše i milosrđa.

VIDEO UŽAS U LIBIJI: Džihadisti vukli zarobljenika po putu do smrti
Objavljeno 20.10. - 15:18

Screenshot Youtube
Zastrašujući zločin dogodio se u Libiji gdje ekstremisti i dalje drže pojedine teritorije ove razorene zemlje.

Islamska država je objavila novi zastrašujući video koji pokazuje na kakve zvjerske načine muče svoje zarobljenike.

Ovoga puta snimak prikazuje navodnog špijuna koga su vukli do smrti.

Zakačili su ga za jedan džip, a bio je obučen u narandžasto odijelo. Džipom su ga vukli po putu do besvijesti. Ruke su mu bile vezane iza leđa, a vikao je uzaludno tražeći milost./NN/HMS/

EXCLUSIVE: 'I am a prince and I do what I want.' Cocaine-crazed Saudi royal 'threatened to kill Los Angeles mansion staff who watched him being pleasured by male aide'

A Saudi Arabian prince is accused of a having sexual relationship with a male aide, taking cocaine and threatening to kill women who refused his advances - as well as sexually assaulting a maid – Daily Mail Online has exclusively learned.
Prince Majed bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud – revealed by Daily Mail Online yesterday to be son of the late King Abdullah – now faces an extraordinary series of allegations in a civil case brought by three female staff members of his Los Angeles mansion.
Court documents seen by Daily Mail Online disclose how he is accused of being drunk and high at his $37 million mansion in Beverly Hills and repeatedly making unwanted sexual advances.

The documents were filed by lawyers acting for three female employees of Al Saud.
They include a claim that the royal attempted to urinate on the trio while screaming: 'I want to pee pee'.
He also threatened to kill one of the women if she refused to 'party' with him and jumped on top of another and began rubbing himself against her in a 'sexual and aggressive manner'.

When asked to stop, Al Saud allegedly then yelled: 'I am a prince and I do what I want. You are nobody!'
All three of the women claim to have seen the royal having his penis 'stroked' by a male aide and say they were forced to stay in the room and watch as the encounter unfolded.

Homosexuality is illegal in Saudi Arabia, and punishable by flogging, or even execution.
Another says she was made to watch while a different male aide bent over and broke wind in Al Saud's face – apparently at his request.

Saudi Arabia protests over Czech 'Satanic Verses' 27 years after uproar
ABU DHABI

REUTERS/ELOY ALONSO

Saudi Arabia summoned the Czech ambassador to protest against a new translation of Salman Rushdie's book "Satanic Verses", Saudi state media said on Friday, 27 years after the novel triggered mass demonstrations and a death threat against the author.

The kingdom told the ambassador the book insulted both Islam and Muslims and asked him to try and halt its publication, the SPA agency added, citing a source in the Saudi foreign ministry.

Prague-based literary publisher Paseka told Reuters it had not heard of any complaint, and its 5,000-strong print run of the book, released in April, had already almost sold out.

Company director Filip Mikes said it had now published 11 of Rushdie's titles. "We have been and will continue to publish (Rushdie)," he added. The book's translator used a pseudonym.

The Czech foreign ministry said the book had come up in a meeting with Saudi authorities, and its ambassador had explained the publication was allowed under Czech law.

Rushdie's novel, first published in Britain in 1988, caused outrage among Muslims who deemed it blasphemous.

The late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran's supreme religious leader, pronounced a fatwa, or religious edict, a year later that called on Muslims to kill the British author.

That forced the writer to live in hiding for nine years. The book's Japanese translator was stabbed to death in 1991 and other people involved in publishing it worldwide have been attacked.

Rushdie's award-winning fourth novel - described as "comical and philosophical" on Paseka's website - has continued to provoke sporadic protests since the initial uproar.

Iran has threatened to boycott next week's Frankfurt book fair because Rushdie was giving the opening address, a spokeswoman for the world's largest literary trade event said on Friday.

Rushdie's agent did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The first Czech version of The Satanic Verses was published in 1994.

Brunei: Country Bans Muslim Population From Celebrating Christmas

The Ministry of Religious Affairs said Muslims caught celebrating Christmas could be jailed for five years. Non-Muslims are permitted to celebrate, but cannot involve Muslims in their festivities.