This is the first time I have read in a long while of some type of conflict breaking out in BiH. Makes me wonder thoughts anyone?
DAZP - get ready... just in case....
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analy ... 24400.htmlKaren Coleman: EU welcomes Croatia but powder keg of wounded Bosnia casts a long shadow
06 JUNE 2013
ON July 1, Croatia will become the 28th country to become a member of the European Union. It will be a huge achievement for a country that was at war 20 years ago.
Many of you may know Croatia from its stunning coastline and idyllic islands. You may be lucky enough to have enjoyed a stroll through the ancient walled city of Dubrovnik. Or some will know Croatia from flying there and travelling onwards to Medjugorje.
Croatia will be the second of the six former republics of Yugoslavia to join the EU. Its neighbour Slovenia joined in 2004. Ironically, both Croatia and Slovenia sparked the fall of Yugoslavia when they declared independence in 1991. Bosnia followed suit in 1992, but it suffered a much worse fate with a conflict that tore it apart and left it in smithereens.
Croatia's accession to the EU will further accentuate the yawning gap between this Catholic country and its former Yugoslav neighbours. Serbia, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro are slowly edging towards joining the EU but they still have many obstacles to overcome before they will be welcomed in.
However, the most troublesome Balkan black spot is Bosnia. This once multicultural republic is today a deeply divided state that remains suspended in political, economic and social limbo.
Bosnia is like a wounded soldier suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. It is a long way off from joining the European club. And the longer it stays out, the greater the danger it will become an isolated minefield with the potential for another conflict to ignite within its borders.
Bosnia has multiple problems, requiring multiple solutions. First, it is acutely divided along ethnic religious lines. Before war broke out in 1992 it was the epitome of multiculturalism, with Catholics, Serbs and Muslims inter-marrying and living peacefully together. But the atrocious wartime campaigns of ethnic cleansing, murder, rape and – in Srebrenica's case – genocide, destroyed that successful cohabitation.
Today, the majority of Bosnian Serbs live separately to the Bosnian Croats and Muslims, or Bosniaks as they are now officially called. A thin veneer of normality camouflages a potent mix of hatred and suspicion between these former enemies. Bitter memories of the horrendous atrocities committed during the war lie just beneath the surface.
These divisions have been accentuated by the very peace deal that ended the war in 1995. The Dayton peace accord separated Bosnia into two entities: the Muslim-Croat Federation, known as Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Bosnian Serb Republic or Republika Srpska. The two regions have an acrimonious relationship that is exacerbated by a highly convoluted political system, with each entity having its own president, government and parliament in addition to a shared central government.
International efforts to get the two entities to move closer together have so far failed. In fact, many suspect the Bosnian Serbs will ultimately push for complete independence.
This powder keg of political dysfunction is accompanied by an equally impaired economy. Bosnia has struggled to develop economically since the war ended. According to the World Bank, youth unemployment is more than 57pc. In a recent report on Bosnia, the Bank stated that young people face "incredible economic and social barriers as they try to integrate into the country's job markets".
This is bad news for a region with centuries of conflict running through its historical veins. Resentful and unhappy young men, with time on their hands, can be easy prey for those with agendas to destabilise the region and to get Republika Srpska to secede from the Muslim-Croat Federation.
Added to that potent cocktail of political and economic turmoil is an endemic pattern of corruption. In its 2012 report on Bosnia, the OECD declared that "corruption remains a serious problem and is widespread in all public administrations" in the country.
This sleaze appears to be endorsed at the highest levels. In April, Muslim-Croat Federation president Zivko Budimir was arrested on suspicion of corruption. He is alleged to have taken bribes to pardon convicted criminals.
These kind of systemic problems illustrate the long journey Bosnia has to travel before it can reach the kind of political, economic and social stability required for EU membership. If Bosnia is unable to surmount these enormous challenges, it remains vulnerable to internal instability and another conflict could erupt in this fragile region. That is the last thing Europe needs.
Irish Independent
