Source:
https://www.hkv.hr/izdvojeno/vai-priloz ... riste.htmlTranslation courtesy of Google...
Brcko District of BiH - a new crisis hotspot?Federal BiH is the best solution for all three nations
"If Dodik broke the Dayton Accords in a referendum on secession, Republika Srpska would have to disappear immediately, and that is why I would militarily cut off the corridor near Brcko." (Stjepan Mesic, President of the Republic of Croatia, at the end of his term)
In a conversation with CNN journalist Christian Amanpour, prominent Muslim politician Haris Silajdzic commented a few days ago on the current crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, accusing Greater Serbia politics and Milorad Dodik of wanting to divide the country in Brcko. "I suggest to EUFOR or NATO to send an army to Brcko and along the Drina River, because tanks and the army came from there in the last war. We need a force that will prevent, not cure, "said Silajdzic. Hamza Karčić, a professor at the Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo, thinks similarly. In an article published by the prestigious magazine Foreign Policy prof. Karcic estimates that "three to five thousand NATO soldiers would be enough" to pacify BiH. They would be located in Sarajevo, use the airport in Tuzla, and deploy them to Brcko. "The deployment of NATO forces in Brcko would send a clear signal that secession is not an option," Karcic said. (Jutarnji list, November 17, 2021.) It is worth noting that former British Foreign Minister William Hague also believes that "the situation in BiH is serious, so NATO forces should be deployed to Brcko and the airport in Tuzla." An interesting match! Who transcribed from whom?
The most important statement regarding Brcko was made by the hitherto rarely mentioned US diplomat Clint Williamson, head of the international arbitration tribunal in charge of Brcko District status, who recently visited BiH and "reminded his interlocutors of my constant obligation to assess all parties' compliance with final (arbitration) provisions." decisions on the status of Brcko, as well as the obligation of the Arbitral Tribunal to act appropriately in case of serious non-compliance with the provisions of that decision ", said Williamson ... (see article" Continuation of the crisis in BiH ", hkv, 14.11.) President Williamson has the authority to make a new decision on the status of Brcko and, for example, can annex it to one of the two entities. ”How dangerous is this covert threat to Serbian interests?
The situation on the ground
The administrative status of the Brcko District is indeed vital to the Serb entity, as it separates the western part of the RS from the eastern. In order to solve this problem, the Serbs carried out an extensive ethnic cleansing at the beginning of the war, which was more fully explored. That is why, after the signing of the peace agreement, several thousand Serbs from other parts of BiH immigrated to Brcko, so today Serbs have a thin majority in the city itself. According to the 2013 census, there are 35,000 Bosniak Muslims, 29,000 Serbs and 17,000 Croats living in the district. The spatial distribution of the constituent peoples is also important, which is to the advantage of the Serbs. The vast majority of Serbs (90%) live in the northern part of the district, on the famous Posavina corridor. On the other hand, Muslims are halved - half of them live in the city, and the rest in the settlements south of Brcko. As for Croats, there are only 1,500 in the city; most Croats live in two groups of settlements, south and southwest of the city. (see map on statistika.ba)
Taken together, the ethnic structure of the district is very complex, and each nation has its own interests - Serbs want the Posavina corridor, Muslims want access to the Sava, and Croats are in a "clinch" between two strong opponents, so they do not know what they want. The current state of the "frozen conflict" suits the Western countries the most, and the possibility of constant blackmail of the parties involved (similar to the Russians in Nagorno-Karabakh!) But let's return now to the already mentioned threat of the American arbitrator!
What would happen if?
Suppose that the international community, that is, the Americans, decides to punish the Serbian secessionists by leaving the Brcko district to the Federation. It is clear that Bosnian Serbs would never accept such a decision, and even if foreigners found a Serb Komsic with the questionnaire, the person in question would probably be treated like Djindjic. But what about the federal "partners", Croats and Muslims? How would they share the "spoils"? Croats would probably, referring to the ethnic structure and geographical position of Brcko, demand the annexation of the entire district to Posavina County. In contrast, Muslims would "unreservedly" demand the inclusion of Brcko in Tuzla Canton. In such a stalemate, the most democratic solution would be to hold a referendum, in which Croats and Serbs would vote for joining Posavina County, and Muslims-Bosniaks, of course, for Tuzla. (Looking at the census, Muslims would surely lose in a referendum!) If the two sides failed to agree on the division of Brcko, joining a county or a referendum, another "Solomonic" solution would remain - the establishment of a new, eleventh county in the Federation. all three peoples were sovereign, equal, constitutive, twinned ... Thus, the situation in Brčko County / Canton would be quite similar to the current distribution of power in the district, with the difference that international arbitrators would lose their jobs!
NATO in Brcko
The deployment of NATO troops in Brcko alone is not enough to achieve the (foggy) goals of Western interventionists. The complete blockade of the Republika Srpska requires soldiers on the Drina, Una and Sava, and probably on the borders between the entities in BiH, assuming that the Serbs will passively observe the foreign occupation. For an effective blockade of Banja Luka, Croats should certainly be included, who, judging by previous experiences, would not benefit from it. What if, instead of Milorad Dodik and his party (SNSD), the West brings the opposition to power, which openly advocates an agreement with Muslims at the expense of Croats ?! Many forget that the source of Croatia's problems is no longer in Banja Luka but in Sarajevo. Until the issue of the status of Croats in the Federation is resolved in a quality manner, and this is possible only with the establishment of a third entity, any move by Croats in the direction of conflict with Serbs would be extremely irresponsible, not to say stupid; only Muslim extremists in Sarajevo would benefit from such a policy. If the West really wants to calm the situation in BiH, the reconstruction of Herceg-Bosna would contribute the most. Dissolving the Federation would also have a positive effect on Serbs, who would no longer have to fear Muslim unitarism and would side with a common state. In short, a federal BiH is the best solution for all three nations!
