HercegBosna.org

HercegBosna.org

Forum Hrvata BiH
 
Sada je: ned srp 21, 2019 7:32 pm.

Vremenska zona: UTC + 01:00 [LJV]




Započni novu temu Odgovori  [ 13 post(ov)a ] 
Autor/ica Poruka
 Naslov: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 6:22 pm 
Offline

Pridružen/a: uto srp 19, 2011 5:55 pm
Postovi: 150
http://rgallivan.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09 ... thnic.html


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:23 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned svi 03, 2009 10:11 pm
Postovi: 18319
Lokacija: Multietnička federalna jedinica sa hrvatskom većinom
Citat:
The SDA is unlikely to take control of Zepce, Vitez and Kiseljak in the local elections next month and Dobretici in the central Bosnia canton and Usora in Zenica-Doboj, two tiny Croat municipalities that were created after the Dayton accords, will elect Croat mayors as will Kresevo in the Central Bosnia canton. But the election results are likely to show a gradual consolidation of Bosniak predominance in these cantons.


Bošnjo/postman - did you write this? :zubati

_________________
Šeherzada
Gdje god postoji postojanje cirilice ili neke od njenih varijanti kakva je recimo glagoljica ili bosancica, tu je postojala dominacija bugarske iliti pravoslavne crkve, slavenskog krscanstva


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:41 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: uto svi 05, 2009 12:02 pm
Postovi: 7821
Lokacija: Banovina Usora
Žepče, Vitez, Kiseljak under SDA control?! What do you base your claim on?


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:43 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned svi 03, 2009 10:11 pm
Postovi: 18319
Lokacija: Multietnička federalna jedinica sa hrvatskom većinom
MRSHO je napisao/la:
Žepče, Vitez, Kiseljak under SDA control?! What do you base your claim on?

There's no f*cking chance for it.

Žepče and Vitez have 60 procent majority of Croats and Kiseljak over 70% majority of Croats.

_________________
Šeherzada
Gdje god postoji postojanje cirilice ili neke od njenih varijanti kakva je recimo glagoljica ili bosancica, tu je postojala dominacija bugarske iliti pravoslavne crkve, slavenskog krscanstva


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:48 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned lip 17, 2012 12:09 am
Postovi: 15570
Unlikely gospodo, unlikely.

_________________
+ Gledaj orle od miline, Gračanicu kraj Prištine... +


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:48 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: sri lip 27, 2012 2:19 am
Postovi: 2155
well as far as I can see, it is written UNLIKELY.


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:51 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: uto svi 05, 2009 12:02 pm
Postovi: 7821
Lokacija: Banovina Usora
Well I definitely know there's no chance for that kind of elections result, I would just like to know on what did he based his claims.

You're probably right. Maybe he googled some "quite reliable" Bošnjo's informations... :D


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 8:59 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned svi 03, 2009 10:11 pm
Postovi: 18319
Lokacija: Multietnička federalna jedinica sa hrvatskom većinom
unlikely - "po svojoj prilici neće", "neizvjesno da hoće"

It expresses doubt, and there is no doubt in these three municipalities.

_________________
Šeherzada
Gdje god postoji postojanje cirilice ili neke od njenih varijanti kakva je recimo glagoljica ili bosancica, tu je postojala dominacija bugarske iliti pravoslavne crkve, slavenskog krscanstva


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: uto ruj 25, 2012 9:06 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: sri lip 27, 2012 2:19 am
Postovi: 2155
well if there is no chance for them in those municipalities, then there is no chane for us in municipalities like Travnik, Uskoplje, Fojnica, Vareš...


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: sri lis 03, 2012 2:29 am 
Offline

Pridružen/a: sub lip 18, 2011 3:10 am
Postovi: 62
What time (local) do polls close on Sunday?

Also, which websites would be best for following the results as they come in? (Or will there be no results announced until the following day?)


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: sri lis 03, 2012 7:45 am 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned svi 03, 2009 9:25 am
Postovi: 37907
Lokacija: Folklorni Jugoslaven, praktični Hrvat
gnr25 je napisao/la:
What time (local) do polls close on Sunday?

Also, which websites would be best for following the results as they come in? (Or will there be no results announced until the following day?)


http://izbori.ba/Default.aspx?Lang=6

The official Electoral commission website (the link I gave you is for the English version).

_________________
sklon'se bona Zineta sa penđera, vidiš da te vlasi oćima kurišu
slika


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: sub lis 06, 2012 4:11 pm 
Offline

Pridružen/a: uto srp 19, 2011 5:55 pm
Postovi: 150
lider30 je napisao/la:
MRSHO je napisao/la:
Žepče, Vitez, Kiseljak under SDA control?! What do you base your claim on?

There's no f*cking chance for it.

Žepče and Vitez have 60 procent majority of Croats and Kiseljak over 70% majority of Croats.


Well, I changed it to "highly unlikely". The reason I did not say there is no chance is because my understanding is that a first-past-the-post voting system operates, which means that if the Croat vote were split, a Bosniak candidate could win. I do not know enough about the specifics in these municipalities to know if there is any chance of this happening. I also added a comment saying that, based on the voting statistics in 2008 and the list of candidates for 1012 (and absolutely no knowledge of any local political peculiarities) the Bosniak vote could be split in Jajce and a Croat candidate could win. What interests me most of all though is the numbers voting for Bosniak and Croat parties as a whole in these municipalities and whether it suggests that the Croat population is shrinking in percentage terms.


Vrh
   
 
 Naslov: Re: Local elections and ethnic consolidation in Bosnia
PostPostano: ned lis 07, 2012 2:41 pm 
Offline
Avatar

Pridružen/a: ned svi 03, 2009 9:25 am
Postovi: 37907
Lokacija: Folklorni Jugoslaven, praktični Hrvat
Unfortunately, election results can't give an accurate demographic estimate because we'll still be stuck with one unknown variable - which is the different election turnout rates amongst each community. Since voting isn't compulsory, the ethnic community with more disciplined/fanatical voters can carry a "disputed" municipality. That's before you even get into the problem of trying to account for the votes of independent candidates and parties that have crossed the ethnic divide. It is generally agreed that Croats have a lower voter turnout.

Only next year's census can give you a definitive answer.

_________________
sklon'se bona Zineta sa penđera, vidiš da te vlasi oćima kurišu
slika


Vrh
   
 
Prikaži postove “stare”:  Redanje  
Započni novu temu Odgovori  [ 13 post(ov)a ] 

Vremenska zona: UTC + 01:00 [LJV]


Online

Trenutno korisnika/ca: / i 15 gostiju.


Ne možeš započinjati nove teme.
Ne možeš odgovarati na postove.
Ne možeš uređivati svoje postove.
Ne možeš izbrisati svoje postove.
Ne možeš postati privitke.

Forum(o)Bir:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Facebook 2011 By Damien Keitel
Template made by DEVPPL - HR (CRO) by Ančica Sečan
phpBB SEO