Country with no significant natural resources, surrounding countries are just as irrelevant.
Is it just a security question for Europe, as the country hosts over a million of muslims?

I would guess the European strategy is very basic and not elaborate at all, it's something like
a) letting Christians having the territorial control over as much of the country as possible
b) supporting the "secular" (??) Muslims to have a control over the Muslim-dominated cantons
c) push the country into the EU so that the Serbian half of the country doesn't fall into the Russian hands

The problem is, these two groups (Christians and the so-called and vague secular part of Muslims) are in conflict. Also, true secular muslims (like miss Lejla Colak https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QnOLsYnxnAo ) are rare.

Christians (Serbs and Croats) dont share a common identity nor do they identify themselves as brothers in Christ. Therefore, there is really no point in using terms such as "Christian majority", "Christians" etc, etc.

That's a cultural approximation that is justified from the perspective of Europe. It's about loyalty to the "western values". After all, even politically, Largest Serb and Croat parties work together in most situations, especially mr Covic and mr Dodik.


This would be a pretty accurate "loyalty " classification:
1. Croats are pro western and pro Europe, though quite conservative Christians
2. Serbs have a dual loyalty to Europe and Russia
3. Muslims have a dual loyalty to Islam and Europe

On top of this, there are extremely strong competing ethnic interests.

To answer your question, Bosnia is geopolitically important to the EU. Why? Because it wants to prevent Russia from gaining influence in the area through Serbia and the Serbs in Bosnia. That is also the answer why they are keen to do all that is in their power to push Bosnia in to the EU. Croats are only nominally pro EU. In light of the ongoing migration crisis, a lot of Croats, which is visible not only on this forum and internet portals, are getting more and more skeptical towards the EU. It is a trend among smaller countries in the EU to be friendly towards Russia and defy common EU policies of sanctions. Serbs too, they dont really want to be part of the EU. If they were asked and if they could choose, they would above all want to be a Russian federal unit. As far as the Bosniaks are concerned (I choose to use the term Bosniaks because that is the name a plebiscit of the Muslim population in Bosnia uses when referring to themselves and because that is the name mentioned in the Constitution of Bosnia), we are for EU but not at any cost. For example, we do not want to pay entrance into the EU with the further ethnical federalization of the FBiH alone.

BiH is in fact geopolitically unimportant. It's just bargain in a global competition between Russia and USA, especially after raising Russian global influence under the rule of Vladimir Putin.

In USA, people who are in charge of conducting policy towards BiH are third -classes clerks in the State department.

If the EU was concerned about keeping (half of) Bosnia out of the Russian sphere, they should not have allowed the creation of the Rupublika Srpska, which could fall under Russian influence.

Europe is falling apart. I think that Belgrade is more interested in pursuing deeper ties with the Russians who are at the moment stronger than with Brussels.

With regards to the Russian interests in this part of Europe, there are only two parts of the Eastern Adriatic not in the EU or NATO: Montenegro (for now) and Neum. The latter part should be of concern to us Croats.

Germany will never change it's core opinion on EU. Benelux countries neither. France is strongly for EU. Portugal and Spain as well. A few countries might exit, but there are already a few countries that have never wanted to join - Switzerland and Norway. UK left. So what. They were always a black sheep, even when inside.

Even in it's most reduced form: Germany + small Eastern European countries, the EU will survive.

Germany's economy will always stay hungry for bigger market and a pool of cheep labor, eastern Europeans will always want to have access to as many western countries as possible. Even if only 1 single country comprises EU, and that country is Germany, eastern European nations will strive to join such EU.

With the UK out of the EU, and after these turbulences are resolved (if), we might be seeing just the opposite process -> increasingly integrated EU, not the other way around, since the UK was the major opposing force for a more centralized EU.

Britan was driving up the standards for potential members with their constant complaints and vetos, now Germany seems to lower the standards, at least verbally. B&H politicians are faced now with unexpected positive comments from the EU (Germany) politicians for their work. Before they were used to constant criticism.

This is what I hope to see.

Between an ISIL fighter and Lejla Čolak, my pick would be the ISIL fighter.

Adi Hitler would be delighted with this outcome.