Nego kako će hrvatska zajednica u USA glasovati? Tradicionalno više naklonjeni republikancima mišljah da se izbor zna, ali me neki rođaci otamo razuvjeriše. Rekoše da će oni koji su došli davno mahom za Hillary glasovati, a oni pak koji su tu došli u zadnjih nekoliko decenija - svi za Trumpa. Hm...

Nego kako će hrvatska zajednica u USA glasovati? Tradicionalno više naklonjeni republikancima mišljah da se izbor zna, ali me neki rođaci otamo razuvjeriše. Rekoše da će oni koji su došli davno mahom za Hillary glasovati, a oni pak koji su tu došli u zadnjih nekoliko decenija - svi za Trumpa. Hm...

Pa stvar je u tome što je ranija istraga o mailovima bila zatvorena u srpnju 2016., da bi je direktor FBI-a James Comey ponovno otvorio 28. listopada. Comey nije budala, jer da bi bio šef FBI-a moraš bit vraški ambiciozan i dobar politički dribler. Njemu je sasvim sigurno jasno šta je stavio na kocku i očito je riješio da mu je profitabilnije oborit Clinton. Zato je vrlo vjerojatno da je našao nešto iznimno inkriminirajuće. Druga je alternativa da je Comey budala.

Potom, wikileaks je otkrio da je Peter Kadzik, zaposlenik DOJ-a, bio u dosluhu s Clintoničim šefom kampanje Johnom Podestom, kojem je slao informacije o istragi protiv Clinton. Drugi skandal je što je Donna Brazile, predsjednica Nacionalnog odbora Demokrata, slala pitanja s debate Clinton u vrijeme sučeljavanja sa Sandersom itd. Potom i afera s "Clinton Inc." itd.

To se sve dogodilo od 28. listopada.



Gospodin James Comey, novi Edgar Hoover. Nek mu je vječna slava.

Je li ovo "ispravljanje" anketa u zadnjem tjednu pred izbore ili ne znam što, meni je malo nemoguće da se 6-7 poena stigne de facto u 4-5 dana.

Mislim afera s e-mailovima je već mjesecima u medijima, da može toliko ozbiljno narušiti izglede Hillary. Nema ništa toliko krucijalno u zadnjoj aferi, da netko nije znao za to.

Ili su mediji spinali, pa sada se usklađuju sa stvarnim stanjem radi kredibiliteta.

Businesses and investors are betting Clinton will win. What if she doesn't?

Public opinion polls and political pundits suggest a tightening race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but the way the business community is acting, the election is over.

And Hillary Clinton has won.

Notwithstanding recent Wall Street jitters, most business and financial indicators are betting on a continuation of the current path, with a President Clinton extending Obama administration policies, kept in check by a GOP-controlled House.

The stock market, for example, has been unusually calm for months, especially in light of the ugly campaign and often unpredictable comments and behavior of Trump, who has at various times attacked Federal Reserve Chair Janet L. Yellen, vowed to renegotiate long-standing trade deals and warned of an impending stock market collapse.

In the final week of the campaign, investors may have started to take notice. The last several days have seen consecutive losses in the broad S&P 500 index, although weakness in energy stocks and other factors have also hung over investors. Still, both the S&P and the Dow remain above levels from the start of the year and are down less than 5% from record highs earlier in the summer.

Moreover, an absence of significant financial hedging and stability in other indicators measuring risk and uncertainty suggest that most business leaders and investors are expecting a Clinton victory Tuesday.

Behind shrinking middle-class jobs: A surge in outsourcing »

“What you see almost uniformly is this belief in the continuation of the status quo,” said Andrew Lowenthal, a principle at Monument Policy, a government relations and public affairs firm in Washington.

Given the wild-card nature of Trump’s candidacy, Lowenthal said, one would think company executives might be planning for contingencies and giving shareholders some guidance about the future. “But there’s no discussion, not even lip service to it,” he said.

A few companies, such as Dunkin’ Donuts, have blamed uncertainty over the election for weakness in sales. And some investors overseas appear to be getting nervous about the closeness of the race in the U.S.

But Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford University professor, said that judging by the political uncertainty index that he and fellow economists constructed, “no one is putting much weight in his [Trump’s] winning.”

The index has averaged about 87 in recent days, below the long-term average of around 100. By contrast, after the surprising British vote in June to leave the European Union, the index shot up to more than 300 over several days.

“If Trump were likely to win, there’d be a massive amount of uncertainty” reflected in the index, Bloom said.

Markets also point to a Clinton White House. Clinton, for example, has railed against high drug prices and could take a tougher hand with big pharmaceutical firms – and analysts say that’s reflected in the industry’s 7% stock slide in the last year.

Meanwhile, there’s been a jump in sales recently at gun maker Smith & Wesson, a sign that people expect Clinton will push through tougher rules on gun ownership, said Lowenthal of Monument Policy.

“These are the 2nd Amendment defenders who are the bedrock of Trump’s support,” Lowenthal said. “You don’t do that if you think Trump is going to be president and make it easier to buy a gun.”

What if things don’t turn out the way business leaders expect? Given the lack of stock put in a Trump victory, there’s little doubt that such an outcome would trigger an initial shock to financial markets, just as the so-called Brexit vote did.

Longer term, the surprise over a Trump victory and uncertainty over what it would mean could translate into less investment and innovation in the economy – with negative effects on new jobs and income growth, experts predict.

"It'd be like a successful coup or revolution," Bloom said. "When a new guy storms into the palace, for months nobody knows what's going on."

At the same time, a narrow Clinton win that is contested as illegitimate by Trump could inject a potentially dangerous amount of uncertainty that could roil markets and keep businesses from investing and hiring.

Or conversely, a huge victory by Clinton, including a Democratic takeover of Congress, might worry businesses and investors as that would remove the check provided by Republicans to block more progressive policies.

Jeste li glasovali?

https://worldwide.vote

Prosjek posljednjih anketa s RealClearPolitics (1.11.16)

Od trenutnih toss-up states, Trump ima vodstvo u:

Ohio (18), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Georgia (16), Maine CD2 (1)

Što mu daje 164 + 70 = 234 elektorska boda.

Clinton ima vodstvo u:

Sjeverna Karolina (15), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Colorado (9).

S tim da u S. Karolini ima vodstvo od 2.6 poena, i da ni jedna anketa ne uzima u obzir vrijeme od otvaranja FBI istrage, izuzev posljednje ankete koja Trumpu daje 2 postotna poena prednosti. Dakle, vrlo vjerojatno da daljnje ankete preobrnu S. Karolinu u crveno.

U Nevadi Clinton vodi za 1 postotni poen, s tim da jedina post-investigacijska anketa daje Trumpu prednost od 4 postotna poena. Dakle i Nevada vrlo vjerojatno postaje crvena.

Clinton u Arizoni ima 0.6 postotnih poena u prednosti. Posljednje dvije ankete daju Trumpu 1 odnosno 2 poena prednosti, s tim da ni jedna ne uzima u obzir vrijeme od otvaranja istrage. Dakle i Arizona postaje crvena.

Clinton ima 4 postotna poena više od Trumpa u Coloradu. Jedina post-investigacijska anketa daje joj prednost od 1 postotnog poena. Moguće da Colorado ostane plav, ali postoji velika mogućnost da se zacrveni.

Ako izuzmemo Colorado, i S. Karolinu, Nevadu i Arizonu obojimo u crveno, Trump ima 164 + 70+ 32 = 266 elektorskih poena. Veoma dobro. Bit će bolje. :)

Kakvo je stanje 3. studenog?

RCP sistem daje Trumpu 180, Clinton 226 elektorskih bodova.

Od toss-up država, Trump vodi u:

Ohio (18) 3.3 pp, Florida (29) 0.7 pp, Nevada (6), 2 pp, Iowa (6), 1.4 pp, Arizona (11), 3 pp.

Trump - 180 + 70 = 250.

Od toss-up država, Clinton vodi u:

Pennsylvania (20) 3.4 pp, Colorado (9) 1.7 pp, New Hampshire (4) 1 pp, Virginia (13) 4.7 pp, Maine CD2 (1) 0.7 pp.

Clinton - 226 + 47 = 273

Sjeverna Carolina (15) je izjednačena. Ako ju uzme Trump imat će 265, a ako je uzme Clinton imat će 288 elektorskih bodova.

Georgia (16) je ranije bila toss-up, sada je leaning Republican.

U Pennsylvaniji je prije 2 dana razlika bila 6, jučer 4.9, a danas 3.4 postotna poena. Vjerojatno će se razlika i dalje smanjivat i postoji mogućnost da Trump uzme Pennsylvaniju.

U Coloradu je prije dva dana razlika bila 4, jučer 3.7, a danas 1.7 pp. Posljednja anketa (29.10. - 31.10.), govori da su Trump i Clinton izjednačeni. Velika mogućnost da državu uzme Trump.

New Hampshire je prekjučer bilježio razliku od 4.7, jučer 3.3, a danas samo 1 pp. Posljednje dvije ankete daju prednost Trumpu. Ona mjerena od 29.10 - 1.11 daje mu prednost od 1 pp, a druga od 31.10 - 2.11 daje mu prednost od čak 5 pp. Vjerojatno državu preuzima Trump.

U Virginiji čvrsto već dva-tri dana stoji razlika od 4.7 pp u korist Clinton. Za Maine CD2 nije bilo novih anketa već duže vremena. Vrlo moguće da tamo pobijedi Trump jer je mjesecima tamo držao zavidnu prednost do od prije 10ak dana.

Jeste li glasovali?

https://worldwide.vote

rusi i srbi po 93% za trampa

Hvala za link

Jasno mi je zašto meksiko, ukrajina, arabija, japan i ovi skandinavski imbecili podržavaju kurtonku, ali zašto je podržavaju kina, indija, egipat, vijetnam i iran

Gospodin Comey drži presicu u 22:00 o Podestinim mailovima.

Je li istina da je voditelj istrage molio POdestu da mu zaposli sina? Kakva kaljuža.

Kad je ta konferencija? Ne mogu ništa o tome naći

http://www.270towin.com/maps/3RDLP
Mogla bi ovo biti mapa.