Iako je na engleskom, molim da članak ostane na ovom forumu jer je odličan, za razliku od mnogih izbljuva zapandih promašenih analitičara

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Germany's Balkan Venture


German Chancellor Angela Merkel and then-Chair of the Rotating Presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina Zeljko Komsic in Berlin in January 2010

Summary

Germany has expressed interest in helping to form an agreement among Bosnia-Herzegovina’s three major ethnic groups. By doing so, Germany looks to thwart Russian and Turkish influence in the Balkans and maximize Berlin’s diplomatic capital. It would also make sure the Balkan states follow the road to reform, which would give Germany time to address more pressing reforms in the European Union. Bosnia-Herzegovina’s complicated political problems, particularly the oft-ignored Croat question, will present Germany with quite a difficult task.

Analysis

German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently voiced interest in reaching a compromise among Bosnia-Herzegovina’s three major ethnic groups — the Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats — at the Feb. 21 EU foreign ministers meeting, which will focus on the future of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Germany, in its first foray into the Balkans since the early 1990s, wants to prevent the further spread of Russian and Turkish influence in the Balkans and get the region on the path to EU membership as soon as possible, so that Berlin can concentrate on reforming the European Union and dealing with the eurozone’s economic crisis.

A History of Turbulence

The Balkans has been either the defensive rampart or the tip of the spear for empires over the centuries. With the collapse of communism, old political rivalries and alliances once again collided there. In early 1991, the Balkans became a volatile section of the countries stretching from Yugoslavia to Afghanistan that were coming unglued as the Cold War-era balance holding them together collapsed.

The turbulence in the Balkans ended in 1995 with the Dayton Accords, with the United States negotiating a deal to end the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. The peace was interrupted when Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic sent Serb police, military and paramilitary forces into Kosovo, which led to a united NATO response — with the United States again leading intervention efforts. Europe went on with integration, while most of the Balkan countries began slow internal reforms aimed at eventual EU accession. Bosnia was not a successful participant in those reforms, and Germany, as the European Union’s unofficial economic and political leader, wants to change that.

The Bosnian Problem

The Dayton framework provided the current structure of government for Bosnia-Herzegovina: a republic comprising three constituent nations and two entities, Republika Srpska (RS) and the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina (Federation). RS is effectively a Serbian state within the state, and the Serbs want to keep it that way. The Federation is composed of 10 cantons (five Croat-majority, five Bosniak-majority), and each canton has its own government. The central government is weak, its power limited primarily to foreign policy and defense. The central government comprises a three-chair presidency, with a seat for each major ethnic group, and a weak bicameral parliament based in Sarajevo. The Office of the High Representative (OHR), which has the powers to enforce political and administrative changes and remove politicians (in practice, it has failed to stand up to RS President Milorad Dodik), and oversees the political process and is supported by European Union forces (EUFOR) who keep the peace. It is an uneasy peace, with the Serbs and Bosniaks partially satisfied and the Croats completely unsatisfied.




Since Dayton, the Bosnian Croats have had to give up their own television channel (while Serbs and Bosniaks maintained theirs), and OHR electoral changes in 2006 affected the Croat-majority city of Mostar. The changes mandated a two-thirds majority vote for one candidate to be able to become mayor in the Croat-majority city of Mostar, a near impossibility with multiple candidates and the ethnic makeup of the city (approximately 60 percent Croat and 40 percent Bosniak). This led to monthlong deadlocks for mayoral elections. The Croats saw this as an attack against them exclusively, as Mostar is the only major city with a Croat majority and it serves as the Croats’ cultural and economic center of gravity, as Sarajevo does for the Bosniaks and Banja Luka does for the Serbs. The Croats are also dissatisfied with tax revenue spending issues in majority Croat areas of the Federation compared to spending in Bosniak-majority areas.

In the 2006 and 2010 elections, Bosniaks in the Federation voted Zeljko Komsic, an ethnic Croat of the mostly Bosniak-supported Social Democratic Party (SDP), into the Croatian seat of the presidency. The Croats felt the Bosniaks stripped them of their constitutionally guaranteed seat in the presidency, as Komsic did not come close to winning a majority among Croat voters. This occurred because in the Federation, the Bosniaks and Croats vote with the same ballot lists and voters are allowed to choose any candidate regardless of their own ethnicity. Though the elections were held in October 2010, no government has been formed yet since the SDP is looking to bring two minor Croatian parties — not the two larger ones — into the government, effectively shutting out the majority of Croat voters from the political process. The OHR has not intervened in the election outcome, so the two largest Croatian parties on Feb. 16 asked for Russian support in the Peace Implementation Council for Croatian rights, which is exactly what the Germans do not want to see in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Germany’s Dilemma

Berlin knows that pushing for a final compromise in Bosnia-Herzegovina will not be simple, as neither U.S. nor EU involvement has been able to end the stalemate. This is Berlin’s first attempt at taking on a European foreign policy problem previously seen as an exclusively U.S.-EU project. Germany’s initial foray into the Balkan quagmire occurred during Germany’s reunification, and aside from supporting Croatian and Slovenian independence it did not do much on its own in the region for two decades.

The danger for Berlin this time around is that if its diplomatic initiative fails, it will make Germany look like an amateur in global affairs despite its economic prowess and political sway within the eurozone. Berlin could also lose support for its permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and respect from Russia and the United States in non-European foreign policy matters if it shows it cannot even handle the Balkans.

But for Berlin, the chance of success is worth the risk. If Bosnia and the Balkans reform and get on the path toward EU membership, it would block Russian and Turkish influence as the Balkans would gravitate further toward the economically omnipresent Germany within the European Union. Russia and Germany do have an emerging entente, and Germany has relatively good relations with Turkey, but Berlin wants to ensure that the region becomes EU-oriented to prevent it from becoming a point of conflict between outside players in the future. Turkish or Russian influence could make such conflict possible and could keep an area in Germany and the European Union’s periphery unstable. Furthermore, if Germany fails in its task, any later German initiatives in the Balkans could end in failure, as the Butmir talks did, specifically due to Turkish involvement.

The question at hand for the German-led EU effort to forge a permanent deal among Bosnia-Herzegovina’s ethnic groups is whether Merkel and Germany will continue with the OHR and EU paradigm of centralizing Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Bosniaks support centralization, but the Croats and Serbs do not — the Serbs have refused all centralization efforts, and the Croats have been largely ignored. If Germany proposes a solution that does not involve centralization, there is the question of whether the solution will gain EU or U.S. support.

Bosnia-Herzegovina has been an enigma for both the United Nations and the European Union, though it could provide Germany with a chance to refine its foreign policy capabilities. Berlin needs to consider the extent to which it is willing to play hardball to get the different sides to cooperate.

Otprilike ono sto smo i pisali ovde, Nemacka preko Hrvata pokusava da se pozicionira sto bolje na Balkanu...

To skontali i naši analitičari koji se sjećaju WW2.Da ne bi možda Turci gaće rastresali više ovdje-kažu...:)

Treba pratiti ovu njemačku inicijativu, otklon prema SAD-u i NATO paktu razvijati a otvarati dalje perspektive s Rusijom. Eno ga Putin u Beogradu traži ne ulazak u NATO. To je dobro jer znači jače prisustvo Rusije u regiji.

Na lokalnom planu suradnja sa Srbima ostaje.

rajvosa, aj daj link. ja sam isto registriran na stratforu, al nisam primio ovaj članak.

Eo, mogu ja... Ima jos ponesto zanimljivo...

http://www.stratfor.com/stratfor_search?s=Bosnia

Frankopan out - 1 mj.

Brišem karte i diskusije o njima...dosta je više bilo.

Rusija je u biti jako poželjan partner ali je problem sa njima što su kao zemlja poprilično nesređeni i u tom smislu nisu neki uzor.

Kakvi su uopće pokazatelji ruskog gospodarstva i sl. zadnje vrijeme,u odnosu na recimo njemačko?

Ma mislim da ti pokazatelji i nisu nešto bitno s obzirom da se rusko gospodarstvo najviše oslanja na izvoz sirovina a to kad-tad mora presušiti.

Istina, imaju oni i zavidnu tehnologiju, ustvari jedino svemirsku i tehnologiju naoružanja.

I to ti je rusko gospodarstvo: sirovine, oružje i svemir.

Njemačka je,ipak,ustrojena država,mentalitetom različita od Rusije.Balkan je njihov u većini stvari,kako god se okrene.

Blizu su Nijemci hebiga. Rusija se protegla do Beringova prolaza, znaš ti koliko je to naroda, etničkih skupina, susjeda koji ti sigurno ne žele dobro? Rusi kao narod ili bolje rečeno Slaveni su povijesno naseljeni na možda 20-ak posto onoga što je danas sve Rusija. Sve ostalo su neki žuti, kafeni, pečeni.

Pa ko stigne o svemu tome voditi računa i još se jebavati na Balkanu gdje ti svaku riječ važu i emotivno proživljavaju?

ekscellente anlyise de la situation dans les Balkans.

Merde,la`encore ,les Allemands!

Rusija je preuzela naftne industrije Srbije i BIH, to puno govori. Uostalom, dolazi Putin u Beograd 23.marta, posle toga ce puno toga biti jasnije, sa putinom ce se sastati i Dodik.Moguce da ce Rusi podrzati Srbe kao strateske partnere na Balkanu, sporazum o strateskom partnerstvu se potpisuje u junu u Moskvi.

Ponasaju se malo kabadahijski, uzeli su stratesku industriju u Srbiji za smesnih 400 miliona, a ni pola od toga nisu platili, drze monopol na nafti, a benzin i gas nikad skuplji, obecali milijardu kredita pre godinu dana, niko kintu nije video...

Nemam nista protiv korektne saradnje, cak i saveznistva, ali ajmo karte na sto, ruska gubernija da budemo necu, ajde da ucine bar jedan koristan potez za Srbiju, i da vidimo koliko nas to kosta u perspektivi.

Dolazi Putinko sa pricom da ne ulazimo u NATO, a ne kaze kako cemo da se nosimo sa svim okolnim zemljama koje su u NATO-u... ako misle da se preko nasih ledja sibaju sa Amerima, da im mi ovde budemo satelit... nek se gone iza Urala, pa nek tamo traze topovsko meso.

Sa Amerima je jasno, uradice sve da nas sjebu, za njih figuriramo kao "mali Rusi"... nema veze, aj da vidimo sta nudi Majka, do sad nam je bila maceha, mnogo smo govana zbog tog laznog bratstva smo pojeli.

Socijaldemokratska partija (SDP) BiH uvlačenjem dvije male hrvatske stranke u vlast efikasno je izbacila većinu hrvatskih glasača iz političkog procesa, navodi se u novoj analizi američke organizacije "Stratfor".

Ova nevladina obavještajna agencija sa sjedištem u Teksasu posljednjih nekoliko dana objavila je dvije detaljne analize. Prva analiza govori o planovima EU na Balkanu i u BiH, o čemu je naš list pisao jučer.




http://www.dnevniavaz.ba/dogadjaji/teme ... usima.html



Znači, okretanje Rusiji pljuvanje po Pereciji - TO NAM DONOSI NEŠTO!


Jadni smo sa takvom "braćom" i "saveznicima".

ljudi moji o cemu vi fantazirate? ja bi prvi volio ne samo 3. nego i veliku hrvatsku ali mi ni jedno ni drugo nazalost nikad necemo dobit.
mi bez podrske RH nikad necemo dobit ni slicno nekim 3. zasto?
pa evo citam onaj topic o konstitutivnosti srba u RH i sve mi je postalo jasno.
RH zbog toga bizi od neke federalne jedinice u bih za hrvate da nebi onda ni srbi mogli rec da oni oce konstitutivnost pa onda autonomiju u RH. zato i govore nama bih je vasa drzava sarajevo glavni grad tamo rijesavajte vase probleme bla bla. jer upravo to oce da cuju od srbije uvezi bh srba i rh srba. posto je RH vazalska drzava njemacke i njemacka tako prema nama postupa i tu je kraj price.

eh sad cu to ipak malo relativirat. njemacka je apsolutni broj jedan postala u EU. s time imamo prohrvatsku drzavu na celu EU. na balkanu pomalo turska kao jos bolji americki saveznik od EU-a trazi i dobiva sve veci utjecaj s blagoslovom SAD-a jer oni trenutno imaju veci problema. eh pa i rusi se tu njuskaju i sad je tek odzvonio sat njemacke tj. EU. njima nemere bit u interesu da 2 sile muckaju nesto po balkanu koji je interesna zona EU a da se nji nista ne pita. jedino ako se rusija i njemacka nekako sloze oko polozaja hrvata u BIH onda ce od toga nesto bit. ali opet tu je opasnost za RH od strane srb kao gori navedeno...

znaci mi lokalni tu necemo o niceme odlucivat nego vece sile... nazalost...

Ovo podcrtano ne da će vam doniti "nešto" nego su iscurile pouzdane obavještajne informacije da će novo sjedište Velike Rusije biti u Ljubuškome.

Izgleda da vijesti putuju do tamnog vilajeta na krilima goluba pismonoše, pa tako i ova sa 3-4 dana kašnjenja.

Ovo je dobro, s obzirom da EU kao i SAD podržavaju ili su to činile konstantno proteklih godina Bošnjake, sve mi se više čine naši političari državotvorni, dakle sve je jasno ako te netko ne podržava tražiš pomoć od onoga koji te je spreman podržati u nastojanju ostvarivanja ljudskih prava koja ti pripadaju, iako Njemačku tu valja ubaciti njihovi i Ruski odnosi su sasvim zadovoljavajući na globalnom planu.

Dašta je... Kao što su "velike sile" odlučivale kad si se morao braniti.

Bolje i to nego da neznamo za sebe ni koliko ih kod nas ima sjedište.

Nadam se da ti ne moram objašnjavati o kom se radi?

uvjeren sam da su i tada te velike sile odlucivale... naivno je mislit da svi ti ratovi nisu bili plan nekih vecih sila.. i sta onda? branio si se i opet su nas strpali i ********...

Nemoj se ljutiti ali nekakva sila je u meni odlucila da radi duhovne higijene ne bih trebao citati price o tome kako "mali Ivica vidi svijet oko sebe".

Prije nego krenes stopama nekih drugih samo da ti kazem - niko tebe ne moze potjerati sa tvoga a ako se odrzis, te "velike sile" ce doci i reci - mi to podrzavamo.

A sad CIAO BAO!