To je općina Tuzla, grad Tuzla je bio i 1991. manje brojan od grada Zenice. Svakako te komunističke spavaonice odoše k vragu. Mostar postaje treći grad u BiH jako brzo, ako već nije.

Uporedicu Rijeku (popis 2021.) i Tuzlu (ZZO podaci 2022.) po starosnim grupama.

Rijeka (31.08.2021):

Starosna grupa --- Ukupno --- 0-14 --- 15-19 --- 20-49 --- 50-64 --- 65+

M --------------- 50.453 --- 6.426 --- 2.210 --- 19.368 --- 10.814 --- 11.635
Z --------------- 57.511 --- 6.041 --- 2.026 --- 19.689 --- 12.746 --- 17.009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ukupno ---- 107.964 -- 12.467 -- 4.236 -- 39.057 -- 23.560 -- 28.644


Tuzla (30.06.2022):

Starosna grupa --- Ukupno --- 0-14 --- 15-19 --- 20-49 --- 50-64 --- 65+

M --------------- 47.039 --- 6.303 --- 1.883 --- 16.223 --- 11.187 --- 11.443
Z --------------- 55.831 --- 5.874 --- 1.837 --- 17.947 --- 13.184 --- 16.989
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ukupno ---- 102.870 -- 12.177 -- 3.720 -- 34.170 -- 24.371 -- 28.432


2022 --- Zivorodjeni --- Umrli --- PP --- Broj Zena (15 - 49) --- TFR*

Rijeka ----------- 697 --- 1.761 --- -1.064 --- 21.715 --- 1,12
Tuzla ------------ 809 --- 1.325 ------ -516 --- 19.784 --- 1,43


*Za TFR nemamo podatke koliko je zivorodjenih po starosnoj grupi majki, pa je moguca samo aproksimacija (verovatno je stvarni TFR nesto veci).

1. Stopa fertiliteta za Rijeku je niza. Delom je to zato sto je Rijeka samo grad, a Tuzla opstina, ali je svakako nizi fertilitet u Rijeci (mada ni u Tuzli nije dobar).

2. U Rijeci je mnogo vise umrlih, a slican broj ljudi u kategoriji 65+ (to je zato sto u podacima ZZO ima dosta dijaspore medju penzionerima, pa je stvarni broj ljudi 65+ u Tuzli manji).

3. Primetno je da Rijeka, sa manje rodjenih, ima vise ljudi u mladim starosnim grupama nego Tuzla (Rijeka ima imigraciju a Tuzla emigraciju, ali opet je velika razlika).

Šta ti je moć projekcije .
Vi šrwlovali , pa ko veliš i Srbi su .

https://www.vijesti.ba/clanak/637755/sv ... njih-skola

Evo ti razlog boljeg tfr-a
https://www.portal-udar.net/sve-veci-br ... m-kantonu/

https://www.vijesti.ba/clanak/637755/sv ... njih-skola

Zar ovo ne pokazuje 100 djece godišnje koja nestanu nakon rođenja. Umrli, rekao bi Nebula, ako je tako, porodilište u Tuzli je najgenocidniji objekt ikad napravljen.

Svaka čast na ovoj usporedbi.

Inace, jos nesto:

Tuzla ZZO 0 - 14 (30.06.2022) ----- 12.177
Tuzla Zivorodjeni (2007 - 2021) --- 14.917

Objavljeni su konacni podaci za osnovne skole 2023/2024:

https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/

Kanton --- Prvacici 2023/2024 --- Zivorodjeni 2017 --- (Razlika) --- (Razlika %)

USK ----- 1.582 --- 2.057 --- (-475) ---- (-23,09%)
PK --------- 123 ------ 154 ---- (-31) ---- (-20,13%)
TK ------- 3.680 --- 3.966 --- (-286) ----- (-7,21%)
ZDK ------ 3.311 --- 3.585 --- (-274) ----- (-7,64%)
BPK -------- 234 ------ 241 ------ (-7) ----- (-2,90%)
SBK ------ 1.968 --- 2.167 --- (-199) ----- (-9,18%)
HNK ----- 1.687 --- 1.712 ----- (-25) ----- (-1,46%)
ZHK -------- 802 ----- 709 ----- (+93) --- (+13,12%)
KS -------- 4.365 --- 4.856 --- (-491) --- (-10,11%)
HBK -------- 358 ----- 377 ----- (-19) ----- (-5,04%)
-----------------------------------------------------------
FBiH -- 18.110 -- 19.824 -- (-1.714) -- (-8,65%)




Podsetimo se proslogodisnjih procena, novinari su bili relativno tacni. Greska od oko 1% je sasvim u redu.
Dzek je procenio 18.050 i bio je jos precizniji.

Jadna djeca, koliko ih ne dozivi skolu.

Otprilike broj Hrvata je oko 0 što se tiče 5 županija,Usore i Žepča.
Sav minus onda otpada na Bošnjake i treba uzeti u obzir da sve više Roma kreće u školu.
Znači odlično osipanje

283500

I ova nebulina osiguranja kasne 5 godina, brojke su još 20% manje.

Sve veliki gradovi, nigdje nisu ni blizu većine.

Nova ogromna tvornica u Širokom, ne prestaju se otvarati nove.



Da se ovakvo što otvori u Tešnju, bilo bi 10 dana na Klixu, proglasili bi Trokut balkanskim ekonomskim tigrom i uspoređivali Tešanj sa Švicarskom.

Dijaspora bi 3 mjeseca jahala na ovoj tvornici u komentarima, puni novog elana, kurčevitosti, najava da će cijeli Balkan ekonomski poklopit.

U tome je razlika između djetinjaste, neozbiljne i nedorasle sirotinje, i onog tko zna znanje.

Zašto misliš da je 5 godina ?

Široki je svemirski brod za bilo koju općinu na 23% kukavelji.

Teškaška kategorija regionalne razine.

Nezaustavljiva Borgovska kocka, na granicama Mostara.

Ne bi me čudilo da Široki od Tajvana preuzme globalni monopol u industriji poluvodiča, i tako riješi taj geostrateški problem između Amerike i Kine.

Koliko je teška investicija, koliko novih ljudi zapošljava i kakav kadar?

Muslimanska sirotinja vjeruje da će Široki biti donji. Nula im je granica.

UN bi se trebao pozabaviti ovom misterijom, ovo je ozbiljan sindrom.

Ovaj vlasnik ima već 2 tvornice u sklopu jedne tako da je ovo više nekakvo otvaranje novog pogona u sklopu istih.
Trenutno ima oko 120 radnika sa jako lijepim plaćama

Iskreno mislim da Široki više nema kapaciteta za neku veću ekspanziju jer se već osjeti kroničan nedostatak radne snage.
Eventualno u slučaju masovnog uvoza nepalaca ili možda da krene veliki povratak naših iz Njemačke...

Zna li itko da li postoje takvi slučajevi?


A što se uvoza radne snage tiče...dobro bi možda bilo uvesti nešto Nepalaca, Filipinaca, Ukrajinaca i Maronita.

Svi oni imaju kulture koje su dosta slični našem te bi se nakon generacije-dvije stopili bez problema (ovi zadnji su i katolici ili su im crkve u uniji sa RKC-om).

Navodno se nešto sitno Filipinki udalo za naše u Ljubuškom i Imotskom.

Koliko sam jučer vidio na TV HercegBosna, 30 milijuna je investicija.
120 radnika, cilj je 200.

Ako fali radnika nek otvore u Stocu u poslovnoj zoni Hodovo.
Jak Stolac = jak Široki

Zato što mi rođak nakon 5 godina Irske i Njemačke nije odjavljen niti ga je itko ista pitao, isto tako i svi Muslimani ili bilo tko.
BiH nema pojma tko joj je uopće otišao, a Nebula stari takijaner nebi stavljao ovakve podatke da u stvarnosti nisu još lošiji.

Ajmo reći da je to moja procjena, ali minimum minimuma je 10% neodjavljenih al zariskirao bi 20%.
Opet i sami padovi ako ništa bar pokazuju neki trend.
I ti uvijek oduzimaš fzs-u fiktivne pa onda ću i ja.

Analiza broja ucenika u osnovnim skolama (svih 9 razreda) 2023/2024 i poredjenje sa zivorodjenima u periodu 2009 - 2017. Mislim da ovo dobro pokazuje prave razmere iseljavanja.

Opstina --- Broj ucenika 2023/2024 --- Zivorodjeni (2009 – 2017) --- (Razlika)

Prijedor --- 4.656 --- 5.118 --- (-462)
Kostajnica --- 278 --- 272 --- (+6)
Kozarska Dubica --- 1.150 --- 1.240 --- (-90)
Krupa na Uni --- 64 --- 71 --- (-7)
Novi Grad --- 1.391 --- 1.520 --- (-129)
Oštra Luka --- 151 --- 184 --- (-33)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Prijedor --- 7.690 --- 8.405 --- (-715)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Čelinac --- 1.161 --- 1.310 --- (-149)
Banja Luka --- 16.890 --- 18.170 --- (-1.280)
Gradiška --- 3.269 --- 3.573 --- (-304)
Istočni Drvar --- 0 --- 3 --- (-3)
Jezero --- 86 --- 69 --- (+17)
Kneževo --- 495 --- 679 --- (-184)
Kotor Varoš --- 1.284 --- 1.530 --- (-246)
Kupres (RS) --- 10 --- 12 --- (-2)
Laktaši --- 2.963 --- 2.845 --- (+118)
Mrkonjić Grad --- 1.016 --- 1.224 --- (-208)
Petrovac --- 83 --- 51 --- (+32)
Prnjavor --- 2.409 --- 2.795 --- (-386)
Ribnik --- 355 --- 360 --- (-5)
Srbac --- 1.316 --- 1.292 --- (+24)
Šipovo --- 650 --- 706 --- (-56)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Banja Luka --- 31.987 --- 34.619 --- (-2.632)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Brod --- 956 --- 916 --- (+40)
Donji Žabar --- 156 --- 16 --- (+140)
Derventa --- 1.862 --- 1.953 --- (-91)
Doboj --- 4.619 --- 4.904 --- (-285)
Modriča --- 1.606 --- 1.616 --- (-10)
Pelagićevo --- 196 --- 25 --- (+171)
Petrovo --- 382 --- 421 --- (-39)
Stanari --- 424 --- 392 --- (+32)
Šamac --- 841 --- 518 --- (+323)
Teslić --- 2.754 --- 3.129 --- (-375)
Vukosavlje --- 236 --- 279 --- (-43)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Doboj --- 14.032 --- 14.169 --- (-137)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bratunac --- 1.106 --- 1.121 --- (-15)
Bijeljina --- 8.291 --- 8.341 --- (-50)
Zvornik --- 3.374 --- 3.611 --- (-237)
Lopare --- 463 --- 524 --- (-61)
Milići --- 471 --- 551 --- (-80)
Osmaci --- 181 --- 221 --- (-40)
Srebrenica --- 437 --- 476 --- (-39)
Šekovići --- 327 --- 390 --- (-63)
Ugljevik --- 976 --- 984 --- (-8)
Vlasenica --- 622 --- 702 --- (-80)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Bijeljina --- 16.248 --- 16.921 --- (-673)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Istočno Sarajevo --- 5.173 --- 4.681 --- (+492)
Istočna Ilidža --- 1.395 --- 1.142 --- (+253)
Istočni Stari Grad --- 11 --- 90 --- (-79)
Istočno Novo Sarajevo --- 1.230 --- 948 --- (+282)
Pale --- 1.671 --- 1.607 --- (+64)
Sokolac --- 809 --- 839 --- (-30)
Trnovo --- 57 --- 55 --- (+2)
Han Pijesak --- 210 --- 227 --- (-17)
Rogatica --- 754 --- 806 --- (-52)
Rudo --- 241 --- 222 --- (+19)
Višegrad --- 552 --- 448 --- (+104)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Istocno Sarajevo --- 6.930 --- 6.384 --- (+546)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Berkovići --- 142 --- 133 --- (+9)
Bileća --- 822 --- 838 --- (-16)
Čajniče --- 237 --- 253 --- (-16)
Foča --- 1.094 --- 1.121 --- (-27)
Gacko --- 686 --- 704 --- (-18)
Trebinje --- 2.606 --- 2.483 --- (+123)
Istočni Mostar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2)
Kalinovik --- 53 --- 81 --- (-28)
Ljubinje --- 250 --- 263 --- (-13)
Nevesinje --- 861 --- 853 --- (+8)
Novo Goražde --- 70 --- 53 --- (+17)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Trebinje --- 6.821 --- 6.784 --- (+37)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Republika Srpska --- 83.708 --- 87.282 --- (-3.574)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Brcko Distrikt --- 5.818 --- 8.241 --- (-3.197)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosanski Petrovac --- 317 --- 336 --- (-19)
Bužim --- 1.515 --- 1.976 --- (-461)
Bosanska Krupa --- 1.554 --- 2.278 --- (-724)
Bihać --- 3.457 --- 4.610 --- (-1.153)
Cazin --- 3.747 --- 5.065 --- (-1.318)
Ključ --- 481 --- 682 --- (-201)
Sanski Most --- 1.170 --- 1.639 --- (-469)
Velika Kladuša --- 3.262 --- 4.362 --- (-1.100)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
USK --- 15.503 --- 20.948 --- (-5.445)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domaljevac-Šamac --- 121 --- 161 --- (-40)
Orašje --- 761 --- 964 --- (-203)
Odžak --- 601 --- 689 --- (-88)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PK --- 1.483 --- 1.814 --- (-331)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Banovići --- 1.878 --- 2.258 --- (-380)
Čelić --- 657 --- 633 --- (+24)
Doboj-Istok --- 862 --- 920 --- (-58)
Gračanica --- 4.140 --- 4.430 --- (-290)
Tuzla --- 8.276 --- 9.406 --- (-1.130)
Gradačac --- 3.319 --- 3.410 --- (-91)
Lukavac --- 2.873 --- 3.441 --- (-568)
Srebrenik --- 3.388 --- 3.554 --- (-166)
Živinice --- 4.875 --- 5.648 --- (-773)
Kalesija --- 2.704 --- 3.053 --- (-349)
Kladanj --- 815 --- 893 --- (-78)
Sapna --- 552 --- 746 --- (-194)
Teočak --- 336 --- 485 --- (-149)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TK --- 34.675 --- 38.877 --- (-4.202)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Breza --- 1.204 --- 932 --- (+272)
Doboj-Jug --- 330 --- 410 --- (-80)
Zenica --- 9.664 --- 10.844 --- (-1.180)
Kakanj --- 3.403 --- 3.694 --- (-291)
Maglaj --- 1.632 --- 1.903 --- (-271)
Olovo --- 646 --- 721 --- (-75)
Tešanj --- 4.460 --- 4.512 --- (-52)
Usora --- 194 --- 265 --- (-71)
Vareš --- 383 --- 457 --- (-74)
Visoko --- 3.641 --- 3.644 --- (-3)
Zavidovići --- 2.801 --- 3.178 --- (-377)
Žepče --- 2.182 --- 2.455 --- (-273)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ZDK --- 30.540 --- 33.015 --- (-2.475)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Foča (FBiH) --- 117 --- 95 --- (+22)
Goražde --- 1.843 --- 1.925 --- (-82)
Pale (FBiH) --- 48 --- 47 --- (+1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BPK --- 2.008 --- 2.067 --- (-59)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bugojno --- 2.201 --- 2.405 --- (-204)
Busovača --- 1.272 --- 1.563 --- (-291)
Dobretići --- 9 --- 28 --- (-19)
Donji Vakuf --- 1.078 --- 1.255 --- (-177)
Fojnica --- 822 --- 1.073 --- (-251)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje --- 1.131 --- 1.405 --- (-274)
Jajce --- 1.503 --- 1.757 --- (-254)
Kiseljak --- 1.801 --- 1.593 --- (+208)
Kreševo --- 241 --- 342 --- (-101)
Novi Travnik --- 1.788 --- 2.108 --- (-320)
Travnik --- 4.031 --- 4.474 --- (-443)
Vitez --- 2.026 --- 2.105 --- (-79)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SBK --- 17.903 --- 20.108 --- (-2.205)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Čapljina --- 1.629 --- 1.582 --- (+47)
Čitluk --- 1.380 --- 1.429 --- (-49)
Mostar --- 8.759 --- 9.222 --- (-463)
Jablanica --- 640 --- 710 --- (-70)
Konjic --- 1.664 --- 1.773 --- (-109)
Neum --- 309 --- 46 --- (+263)
Prozor --- 716 --- 895 --- (-179)
Ravno --- 18 --- 3 --- (+15)
Stolac --- 726 --- 793 --- (-67)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
HNK --- 15.841 --- 16.453 --- (-612)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Široki Brijeg --- 2.526 --- 2.731 --- (-205)
Grude --- 1.216 --- 963 --- (+253)
Ljubuški --- 1.799 --- 1.816 --- (-17)
Posušje --- 1.635 --- 1.312 --- (+323)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ZHK --- 7.176 --- 6.822 --- (+354)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Sarajevo --- 24.561 --- 27.613 --- (-3.052)
Centar Sarajevo --- 5.555 --- 5.672 --- (-117)
Novi Grad Sarajevo --- 11.212 --- 12.067 --- (-855)
Novo Sarajevo --- 5.661 --- 6.382 --- (-721)
Stari Grad Sarajevo --- 2.133 --- 3.492 --- (-1.359)
Hadžići --- 2.103 --- 2.259 --- (-156)
Ilidža --- 6.746 --- 6.727 --- (+19)
Ilijaš --- 1.971 --- 2.726 --- (-755)
Trnovo (FBiH) --- 48 --- 114 --- (-66)
Vogošća --- 2.964 --- 2.932 --- (32)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
KS --- 38.393 --- 42.371 --- (-3.978)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosansko Grahovo --- 31 --- 64 --- (-33)
Drvar --- 300 --- 304 --- (-4)
Glamoč --- 197 --- 243 --- (-46)
Livno --- 1,401 --- 1,714 --- (-313)
Kupres --- 171 --- 175 --- (-4)
Tomislavgrad --- 1.195 --- 1.389 --- (-194)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
HBK --- 3.295 --- 3.889 --- (-594)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FBiH --- 166.817 --- 186.364 --- (-19.547)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BiH --- 256.343 --- 281.887 --- (-26.318)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Za Brcko je stvarni minus manji jer se upisuju rodjeni u Republici Srpskoj i iz Federacije koji se ne skoluju u Brckom. Oko 600 - 700 iz opstina Samac, Pelagicevo i Donji Zabar u RS, a verovatno i vise od toga iz opstina Celic, Gradacac i Srebrenik (samo se ovde ne vidi plus kao u RS zbog velikog iseljavanja).
2. Za opstinu Stanari rodjeni 2009. i 2010. godine su ubrojani pod Doboj (najbolje je te dve opstine racunati zajedno).
3. Jedan deo minusa u Republici Srpskoj je od Bosnjaka. U opstinama Prijedor, Novi Grad, Gradiska, Kotor Varos, Doboj (+Stanari), Teslic, Vukosavlje, Bratunac, Bijeljina, Zvornik i Srebrenica rodjeno je 4.196 Bosnjaka, sto je 78% od ukupno 5.377 Bosnjaka rodjenih u RS 2009 – 2017. Te opstine imaju vece gubitke nego drugde (-2.153 od ukupno -3.574).

Ovo poredjenje otprilike pokazuje koliko dece u BiH emigrira u prosecnom periodu od 10-11 godina nakon rodjenja, jer je proecna starost osnovnoskolaca 10-11 godina. Kao sto je vec poznato, USK ima relativno najvece iseljavanje, vise od cele Republike Srpske.

https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/

https://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/6376/

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2024/BRC_05_2023_TB_1_BS.pdf