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Robbie MO

neretvanin je napisao/la:

Robbie MO je napisao/la:

Zašto misliš da je 5 godina ?

Zato što mi rođak nakon 5 godina Irske i Njemačke nije odjavljen niti ga je itko ista pitao, isto tako i svi Muslimani ili bilo tko.
BiH nema pojma tko joj je uopće otišao, a Nebula stari takijaner nebi stavljao ovakve podatke da u stvarnosti nisu još lošiji.

Ajmo reći da je to moja procjena, ali minimum minimuma je 10% neodjavljenih al zariskirao bi 20%.
Opet i sami padovi ako ništa bar pokazuju neki trend.
I ti uvijek oduzimaš fzs-u fiktivne :zubati

pa onda ću i ja.

Moguće je da postoji neka takva korekcija, samo moramo naći načina za procijeniti.

Evo recimo neko je stavio usporedbu prvašića, ili rođenih, kumulativnu kroz određeni broj godina, i usporedio s odgovarajućom dobnom skupinom ZZO.

Junuz Djipalo

Opet odlično.

Vide se i trendovi. Mostar ima više školaraca od Tuzle i ide prema tome da pretekne Zenicu.

Vjerojatno uskoro drugi grad u F.

Kiseljak postaje definitivno glavni grad Hrvata SB. Raste kao i Istočno Sarajevo. Vidi se uživo kako rastu.

Inače, sumnjam da je samo iseljavanje u pitanju. Mislim da ima jako puno upisivanja bošnjačke dijaspore u rođene, posebno u Sarajevu.

Revolucionar · **Pridružen/a:** 29 tra 2023, 16:20 **Postovi:** 768

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Kiseljak postaje definitivno glavni grad Hrvata SB. Raste kao i Istočno Sarajevo. Vidi se uživo kako rastu.

Da, Kiseljak je jedina opstina u plusu u SBK.

Inace me je iznenadio plus u Brezi, valjda se tamo skoluju neka deca iz Ilijasa. Mozda neko zna.

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Inače, sumnjam da je samo iseljavanje u pitanju. Mislim da ima jako puno upisivanja bošnjačke dijaspore u rođene, posebno u Sarajevu.

Vrlo moguce, ali na kraju krajeva nije mnogo bitno da li je upisana dijaspora ili iseljavanje. Broj ucenika u osnovnim skolama je stanje na terenu.

Robbie MO

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Opet odlično.

Vide se i trendovi. Mostar ima više školaraca od Tuzle i ide prema tome da pretekne Zenicu.

Vjerojatno uskoro drugi grad u F.

Kiseljak postaje definitivno glavni grad Hrvata SB. Raste kao i Istočno Sarajevo. Vidi se uživo kako rastu.

Inače, sumnjam da je samo iseljavanje u pitanju. Mislim da ima jako puno upisivanja bošnjačke dijaspore u rođene, posebno u Sarajevu.

A Mostar je odavno drugi najveći grad.

Kakva sela se ubrajaju pod naselje Tuzla i Zenica...

Da se isti kriterij koristio kod Mostara, Mostar bi dobio još 10 000 pod naselje. Ili 10 000 manje za Tuzlu i Zenicu.

Ali eto čak i uz taj hendikep Mostar će vremenom ići na 2. mjesto.

Dogodine ispred Tuzle po ZZO, rođenima i prvašićima.

Robbie MO

Revolucionar je napisao/la:

Analiza broja ucenika u osnovnim skolama (svih 9 razreda) 2023/2024 i poredjenje sa zivorodjenima u periodu 2009 - 2017. Mislim da ovo dobro pokazuje prave razmere iseljavanja.

Opstina --- Broj ucenika 2023/2024 --- Zivorodjeni (2009 – 2017) --- (Razlika)

Prijedor --- 4.656 --- 5.118 --- (-462)
Kostajnica --- 278 --- 272 --- (+6)
Kozarska Dubica --- 1.150 --- 1.240 --- (-90)
Krupa na Uni --- 64 --- 71 --- (-7)
Novi Grad --- 1.391 --- 1.520 --- (-129)
Oštra Luka --- 151 --- 184 --- (-33)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Prijedor --- 7.690 --- 8.405 --- (-715)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Čelinac --- 1.161 --- 1.310 --- (-149)
Banja Luka --- 16.890 --- 18.170 --- (-1.280)
Gradiška --- 3.269 --- 3.573 --- (-304)
Istočni Drvar --- 0 --- 3 --- (-3)
Jezero --- 86 --- 69 --- (+17)
Kneževo --- 495 --- 679 --- (-184)
Kotor Varoš --- 1.284 --- 1.530 --- (-246)
Kupres (RS) --- 10 --- 12 --- (-2)
Laktaši --- 2.963 --- 2.845 --- (+118)
Mrkonjić Grad --- 1.016 --- 1.224 --- (-208)
Petrovac --- 83 --- 51 --- (+32)
Prnjavor --- 2.409 --- 2.795 --- (-386)
Ribnik --- 355 --- 360 --- (-5)
Srbac --- 1.316 --- 1.292 --- (+24)
Šipovo --- 650 --- 706 --- (-56)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Banja Luka --- 31.987 --- 34.619 --- (-2.632)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Brod --- 956 --- 916 --- (+40)
Donji Žabar --- 156 --- 16 --- (+140)
Derventa --- 1.862 --- 1.953 --- (-91)
Doboj --- 4.619 --- 4.904 --- (-285)
Modriča --- 1.606 --- 1.616 --- (-10)
Pelagićevo --- 196 --- 25 --- (+171)
Petrovo --- 382 --- 421 --- (-39)
Stanari --- 424 --- 392 --- (+32)
Šamac --- 841 --- 518 --- (+323)
Teslić --- 2.754 --- 3.129 --- (-375)
Vukosavlje --- 236 --- 279 --- (-43)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Doboj --- 14.032 --- 14.169 --- (-137)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bratunac --- 1.106 --- 1.121 --- (-15)
Bijeljina --- 8.291 --- 8.341 --- (-50)
Zvornik --- 3.374 --- 3.611 --- (-237)
Lopare --- 463 --- 524 --- (-61)
Milići --- 471 --- 551 --- (-80)
Osmaci --- 181 --- 221 --- (-40)
Srebrenica --- 437 --- 476 --- (-39)
Šekovići --- 327 --- 390 --- (-63)
Ugljevik --- 976 --- 984 --- (-8)
Vlasenica --- 622 --- 702 --- (-80)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Bijeljina --- 16.248 --- 16.921 --- (-673)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Istočno Sarajevo --- 5.173 --- 4.681 --- (+492)
Istočna Ilidža --- 1.395 --- 1.142 --- (+253)
Istočni Stari Grad --- 11 --- 90 --- (-79)
Istočno Novo Sarajevo --- 1.230 --- 948 --- (+282)
Pale --- 1.671 --- 1.607 --- (+64)
Sokolac --- 809 --- 839 --- (-30)
Trnovo --- 57 --- 55 --- (+2)
Han Pijesak --- 210 --- 227 --- (-17)
Rogatica --- 754 --- 806 --- (-52)
Rudo --- 241 --- 222 --- (+19)
Višegrad --- 552 --- 448 --- (+104)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Istocno Sarajevo --- 6.930 --- 6.384 --- (+546)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Berkovići --- 142 --- 133 --- (+9)
Bileća --- 822 --- 838 --- (-16)
Čajniče --- 237 --- 253 --- (-16)
Foča --- 1.094 --- 1.121 --- (-27)
Gacko --- 686 --- 704 --- (-18)
Trebinje --- 2.606 --- 2.483 --- (+123)
Istočni Mostar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2)
Kalinovik --- 53 --- 81 --- (-28)
Ljubinje --- 250 --- 263 --- (-13)
Nevesinje --- 861 --- 853 --- (+8)
Novo Goražde --- 70 --- 53 --- (+17)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Trebinje --- 6.821 --- 6.784 --- (+37)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Republika Srpska --- 83.708 --- 87.282 --- (-3.574)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Brcko Distrikt --- 5.818 --- 8.241 --- (-3.197)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosanski Petrovac --- 317 --- 336 --- (-19)
Bužim --- 1.515 --- 1.976 --- (-461)
Bosanska Krupa --- 1.554 --- 2.278 --- (-724)
Bihać --- 3.457 --- 4.610 --- (-1.153)
Cazin --- 3.747 --- 5.065 --- (-1.318)
Ključ --- 481 --- 682 --- (-201)
Sanski Most --- 1.170 --- 1.639 --- (-469)
Velika Kladuša --- 3.262 --- 4.362 --- (-1.100)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
USK --- 15.503 --- 20.948 --- (-5.445)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Domaljevac-Šamac --- 121 --- 161 --- (-40)
Orašje --- 761 --- 964 --- (-203)
Odžak --- 601 --- 689 --- (-88)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PK --- 1.483 --- 1.814 --- (-331)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Banovići --- 1.878 --- 2.258 --- (-380)
Čelić --- 657 --- 633 --- (+24)
Doboj-Istok --- 862 --- 920 --- (-58)
Gračanica --- 4.140 --- 4.430 --- (-290)
Tuzla --- 8.276 --- 9.406 --- (-1.130)
Gradačac --- 3.319 --- 3.410 --- (-91)
Lukavac --- 2.873 --- 3.441 --- (-568)
Srebrenik --- 3.388 --- 3.554 --- (-166)
Živinice --- 4.875 --- 5.648 --- (-773)
Kalesija --- 2.704 --- 3.053 --- (-349)
Kladanj --- 815 --- 893 --- (-78)
Sapna --- 552 --- 746 --- (-194)
Teočak --- 336 --- 485 --- (-149)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
TK --- 34.675 --- 38.877 --- (-4.202)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Breza --- 1.204 --- 932 --- (+272)
Doboj-Jug --- 330 --- 410 --- (-80)
Zenica --- 9.664 --- 10.844 --- (-1.180)
Kakanj --- 3.403 --- 3.694 --- (-291)
Maglaj --- 1.632 --- 1.903 --- (-271)
Olovo --- 646 --- 721 --- (-75)
Tešanj --- 4.460 --- 4.512 --- (-52)
Usora --- 194 --- 265 --- (-71)
Vareš --- 383 --- 457 --- (-74)
Visoko --- 3.641 --- 3.644 --- (-3)
Zavidovići --- 2.801 --- 3.178 --- (-377)
Žepče --- 2.182 --- 2.455 --- (-273)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ZDK --- 30.540 --- 33.015 --- (-2.475)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Foča (FBiH) --- 117 --- 95 --- (+22)
Goražde --- 1.843 --- 1.925 --- (-82)
Pale (FBiH) --- 48 --- 47 --- (+1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BPK --- 2.008 --- 2.067 --- (-59)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bugojno --- 2.201 --- 2.405 --- (-204)
Busovača --- 1.272 --- 1.563 --- (-291)
Dobretići --- 9 --- 28 --- (-19)
Donji Vakuf --- 1.078 --- 1.255 --- (-177)
Fojnica --- 822 --- 1.073 --- (-251)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje --- 1.131 --- 1.405 --- (-274)
Jajce --- 1.503 --- 1.757 --- (-254)
Kiseljak --- 1.801 --- 1.593 --- (+208)
Kreševo --- 241 --- 342 --- (-101)
Novi Travnik --- 1.788 --- 2.108 --- (-320)
Travnik --- 4.031 --- 4.474 --- (-443)
Vitez --- 2.026 --- 2.105 --- (-79)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
SBK --- 17.903 --- 20.108 --- (-2.205)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Čapljina --- 1.629 --- 1.582 --- (+47)
Čitluk --- 1.380 --- 1.429 --- (-49)
Mostar --- 8.759 --- 9.222 --- (-463)
Jablanica --- 640 --- 710 --- (-70)
Konjic --- 1.664 --- 1.773 --- (-109)
Neum --- 309 --- 46 --- (+263)
Prozor --- 716 --- 895 --- (-179)
Ravno --- 18 --- 3 --- (+15)
Stolac --- 726 --- 793 --- (-67)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
HNK --- 15.841 --- 16.453 --- (-612)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Široki Brijeg --- 2.526 --- 2.731 --- (-205)
Grude --- 1.216 --- 963 --- (+253)
Ljubuški --- 1.799 --- 1.816 --- (-17)
Posušje --- 1.635 --- 1.312 --- (+323)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
ZHK --- 7.176 --- 6.822 --- (+354)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Sarajevo --- 24.561 --- 27.613 --- (-3.052)
Centar Sarajevo --- 5.555 --- 5.672 --- (-117)
Novi Grad Sarajevo --- 11.212 --- 12.067 --- (-855)
Novo Sarajevo --- 5.661 --- 6.382 --- (-721)
Stari Grad Sarajevo --- 2.133 --- 3.492 --- (-1.359)
Hadžići --- 2.103 --- 2.259 --- (-156)
Ilidža --- 6.746 --- 6.727 --- (+19)
Ilijaš --- 1.971 --- 2.726 --- (-755)
Trnovo (FBiH) --- 48 --- 114 --- (-66)
Vogošća --- 2.964 --- 2.932 --- (32)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
KS --- 38.393 --- 42.371 --- (-3.978)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosansko Grahovo --- 31 --- 64 --- (-33)
Drvar --- 300 --- 304 --- (-4)
Glamoč --- 197 --- 243 --- (-46)
Livno --- 1,401 --- 1,714 --- (-313)
Kupres --- 171 --- 175 --- (-4)
Tomislavgrad --- 1.195 --- 1.389 --- (-194)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
HBK --- 3.295 --- 3.889 --- (-594)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FBiH --- 166.817 --- 186.364 --- (-19.547)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BiH --- 256.343 --- 281.887 --- (-26.318)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Za Brcko je stvarni minus manji jer se upisuju rodjeni u Republici Srpskoj i iz Federacije koji se ne skoluju u Brckom. Oko 600 - 700 iz opstina Samac, Pelagicevo i Donji Zabar u RS, a verovatno i vise od toga iz opstina Celic, Gradacac i Srebrenik (samo se ovde ne vidi plus kao u RS zbog velikog iseljavanja).
2. Za opstinu Stanari rodjeni 2009. i 2010. godine su ubrojani pod Doboj (najbolje je te dve opstine racunati zajedno).
3. Jedan deo minusa u Republici Srpskoj je od Bosnjaka. U opstinama Prijedor, Novi Grad, Gradiska, Kotor Varos, Doboj (+Stanari), Teslic, Vukosavlje, Bratunac, Bijeljina, Zvornik i Srebrenica rodjeno je 4.196 Bosnjaka, sto je 78% od ukupno 5.377 Bosnjaka rodjenih u RS 2009 – 2017. Te opstine imaju vece gubitke nego drugde (-2.153 od ukupno -3.574).

Ovo poredjenje otprilike pokazuje koliko dece u BiH emigrira u prosecnom periodu od 10-11 godina nakon rodjenja, jer je proecna starost osnovnoskolaca 10-11 godina. Kao sto je vec poznato, USK ima relativno najvece iseljavanje, vise od cele Republike Srpske.

https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/

https://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/6376/

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2024/BRC_05_2023_TB_1_BS.pdf

U tablici se ništa ne vidi, dok ne izračunaš postotke.

Junuz Djipalo

Revolucionar je napisao/la:

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Kiseljak postaje definitivno glavni grad Hrvata SB. Raste kao i Istočno Sarajevo. Vidi se uživo kako rastu.

Da, Kiseljak je jedina opstina u plusu u SBK.

Inace me je iznenadio plus u Brezi, valjda se tamo skoluju neka deca iz Ilijasa. Mozda neko zna.

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Inače, sumnjam da je samo iseljavanje u pitanju. Mislim da ima jako puno upisivanja bošnjačke dijaspore u rođene, posebno u Sarajevu.

Vrlo moguce, ali na kraju krajeva nije mnogo bitno da li je upisana dijaspora ili iseljavanje. Broj ucenika u osnovnim skolama je stanje na terenu.

Pa, bilo je slučajeva i da su Bošnjaci lažirali i učenike. Broj učenika je jedan od kriterija za povlačenje novaca kantonu.
Tako da, stanje je lako moguće i gore.

Robbie MO

Junuz Djipalo je napisao/la:

Revolucionar je napisao/la:

Da, Kiseljak je jedina opstina u plusu u SBK.

Inace me je iznenadio plus u Brezi, valjda se tamo skoluju neka deca iz Ilijasa. Mozda neko zna.

Vrlo moguce, ali na kraju krajeva nije mnogo bitno da li je upisana dijaspora ili iseljavanje. Broj ucenika u osnovnim skolama je stanje na terenu.

Pa, bilo je slučajeva i da su Bošnjaci lažirali i učenike. Broj učenika je jedan od kriterija za povlačenje novaca kantonu.
Tako da, stanje je lako moguće i gore.

Da, i to u Mostaru je jedan direktor izmišljao učenike da ne gasi razred, postavljao sam vijest.

neretvanin

Po Nebuli KS pao u 8g samo 2000 osiguranika s 430 na 428k.
:zubati

Ima ih tu viška jedno 40k, ovi što idu u Njemačku se ne brišu.

zet · **Pridružen/a:** 03 vel 2024, 00:34 **Postovi:** 1003

RS pad od 4.1%
FBiH pad od 10.49%

Kad se usporede RS i FBiH to je kao da se usporedjuju dva razlicita svijeta.

Revolucionar · **Pridružen/a:** 29 tra 2023, 16:20 **Postovi:** 768

Robbie MO je napisao/la:

U tablici se ništa ne vidi, dok ne izračunaš postotke.

Evo, dodao sam ih:

Analiza broja ucenika u osnovnim skolama (svih 9 razreda) 2023/2024 i poredjenje sa zivorodjenima u periodu 2009 - 2017. Mislim da ovo dobro pokazuje prave razmere iseljavanja.

Opstina --- Broj ucenika 2023/2024 --- Zivorodjeni (2009 – 2017) --- (Razlika) --- (Razlika %)

Prijedor --- 4.656 --- 5.118 --- (-462) --- (-9,03%)
Kostajnica --- 278 --- 272 --- (+6) --- (+2,21%)
Kozarska Dubica --- 1.150 --- 1.240 --- (-90) --- (-7,26%)
Krupa na Uni --- 64 --- 71 --- (-7) --- (-9,86%)
Novi Grad --- 1.391 --- 1.520 --- (-129) --- (-8,49%)
Oštra Luka --- 151 --- 184 --- (-33) --- (-17,93%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Prijedor --- 7.690 --- 8.405 --- (-715) --- (-8,51%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Čelinac --- 1.161 --- 1.310 --- (-149) --- (-11,37%)
Banja Luka --- 16.890 --- 18.170 --- (-1.280) --- (-7,04%)
Gradiška --- 3.269 --- 3.573 --- (-304) --- (-8,51%)
Istočni Drvar --- 0 --- 3 --- (-3) --- (-100,00%)
Jezero --- 86 --- 69 --- (+17) --- (+24,64%)
Kneževo --- 495 --- 679 --- (-184) --- (-27,10%)
Kotor Varoš --- 1.284 --- 1.530 --- (-246) --- (-16,08%)
Kupres (RS) --- 10 --- 12 --- (-2) --- (-16,67%)
Laktaši --- 2.963 --- 2.845 --- (+118) --- (+4,15%)
Mrkonjić Grad --- 1.016 --- 1.224 --- (-208) --- (-16,99%)
Petrovac --- 83 --- 51 --- (+32) --- (+62,75%)
Prnjavor --- 2.409 --- 2.795 --- (-386) --- (-13,81%)
Ribnik --- 355 --- 360 --- (-5) --- (-1,39%)
Srbac --- 1.316 --- 1.292 --- (+24) --- (+1,86%)
Šipovo --- 650 --- 706 --- (-56) --- (-7,93%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Banja Luka --- 31.987 --- 34.619 --- (-2.632) --- (-7,60%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brod --- 956 --- 916 --- (+40) --- (+4,37%)
Donji Žabar --- 156 --- 16 --- (+140) --- (+875,00%)
Derventa --- 1.862 --- 1.953 --- (-91) --- (-4,66%)
Doboj --- 4.619 --- 4.904 --- (-285) --- (-5,81%)
Modriča --- 1.606 --- 1.616 --- (-10) --- (-0,62%)
Pelagićevo --- 196 --- 25 --- (+171) --- (+684,00%)
Petrovo --- 382 --- 421 --- (-39) --- (-9,26%)
Stanari --- 424 --- 392 --- (+32) --- (+8,16%)
Šamac --- 841 --- 518 --- (+323) --- (+62,36%)
Teslić --- 2.754 --- 3.129 --- (-375) --- (-11,98%)
Vukosavlje --- 236 --- 279 --- (-43) --- (-15,41%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Doboj --- 14.032 --- 14.169 --- (-137) --- (-0,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bratunac --- 1.106 --- 1.121 --- (-15) --- (-1,34%)
Bijeljina --- 8.291 --- 8.341 --- (-50) --- (-0,60%)
Zvornik --- 3.374 --- 3.611 --- (-237) --- (-6,56%)
Lopare --- 463 --- 524 --- (-61) --- (-11,64%)
Milići --- 471 --- 551 --- (-80) --- (-14,52%)
Osmaci --- 181 --- 221 --- (-40) --- (-18,10%)
Srebrenica --- 437 --- 476 --- (-39) --- (-8,19%)
Šekovići --- 327 --- 390 --- (-63) --- (-16,15%)
Ugljevik --- 976 --- 984 --- (-8) --- (-0,81%)
Vlasenica --- 622 --- 702 --- (-80) --- (-11,40%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Bijeljina --- 16.248 --- 16.921 --- (-673) --- (-3,98%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Istočno Sarajevo --- 5.173 --- 4.681 --- (+492) --- (+10,51%)
Istočna Ilidža --- 1.395 --- 1.142 --- (+253) --- (+22,15%)
Istočni Stari Grad --- 11 --- 90 --- (-79) --- (-87,78%)
Istočno Novo Sarajevo --- 1.230 --- 948 --- (+282) --- (+29,75%)
Pale --- 1.671 --- 1.607 --- (+64) --- (+3,98%)
Sokolac --- 809 --- 839 --- (-30) --- (-3,58%)
Trnovo --- 57 --- 55 --- (+2) --- (+3,64%)
Han Pijesak --- 210 --- 227 --- (-17) --- (-7,49%)
Rogatica --- 754 --- 806 --- (-52) --- (-6,45%)
Rudo --- 241 --- 222 --- (+19) --- (+8,56%)
Višegrad --- 552 --- 448 --- (+104) --- (+23,21%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Istočno Sarajevo --- 6.930 --- 6.384 --- (+546) --- (+8,55%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Berkovići --- 142 --- 133 --- (+9) --- (+6,77%)
Bileća --- 822 --- 838 --- (-16) --- (-1,91%)
Čajniče --- 237 --- 253 --- (-16) --- (-6,32%)
Foča --- 1.094 --- 1.121 --- (-27) --- (-2,41%)
Gacko --- 686 --- 704 --- (-18) --- (-2,56%)
Trebinje --- 2.606 --- 2.483 --- (+123) --- (+4,95%)
Istočni Mostar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2) --- (-100,00%)
Kalinovik --- 53 --- 81 --- (-28) --- (-34,57%)
Ljubinje --- 250 --- 263 --- (-13) --- (-4,94%)
Nevesinje --- 861 --- 853 --- (+8) --- (+0,94%)
Novo Goražde --- 70 --- 53 --- (+17) --- (+32,08%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Trebinje --- 6.821 --- 6.784 --- (+37) --- (+0,55%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Republika Srpska --- 83.708 --- 87.282 --- (-3.574) --- (-4,09%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brčko Distrikt --- 5.818 --- 8.241 --- (-2.423) --- (-29,40%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosanski Petrovac --- 317 --- 336 --- (-19) --- (-5,65%)
Bužim --- 1.515 --- 1.976 --- (-461) --- (-23,33%)
Bosanska Krupa --- 1.554 --- 2.278 --- (-724) --- (-31,78%)
Bihać --- 3.457 --- 4.610 --- (-1.153) --- (-25,01%)
Cazin --- 3.747 --- 5.065 --- (-1.318) --- (-26,02%)
Ključ --- 481 --- 682 --- (-201) --- (-29,47%)
Sanski Most --- 1.170 --- 1.639 --- (-469) --- (-28,62%)
Velika Kladuša --- 3.262 --- 4.362 --- (-1.100) --- (-25,22%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USK --- 15.503 --- 20.948 --- (-5.445) --- (-25,99%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Domaljevac-Šamac --- 121 --- 161 --- (-40) --- (-24,84%)
Orašje --- 761 --- 964 --- (-203) --- (-21,06%)
Odžak --- 601 --- 689 --- (-88) --- (-12,77%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PK --- 1.483 --- 1.814 --- (-331) --- (-18,25%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Banovići --- 1.878 --- 2.258 --- (-380) --- (-16,83%)
Čelić --- 657 --- 633 --- (+24) --- (+3,79%)
Doboj-Istok --- 862 --- 920 --- (-58) --- (-6,30%)
Gračanica --- 4.140 --- 4.430 --- (-290) --- (-6,55%)
Tuzla --- 8.276 --- 9.406 --- (-1.130) --- (-12,01%)
Gradačac --- 3.319 --- 3.410 --- (-91) --- (-2,67%)
Lukavac --- 2.873 --- 3.441 --- (-568) --- (-16,51%)
Srebrenik --- 3.388 --- 3.554 --- (-166) --- (-4,67%)
Živinice --- 4.875 --- 5.648 --- (-773) --- (-13,69%)
Kalesija --- 2.704 --- 3.053 --- (-349) --- (-11,43%)
Kladanj --- 815 --- 893 --- (-78) --- (-8,73%)
Sapna --- 552 --- 746 --- (-194) --- (-26,01%)
Teočak --- 336 --- 485 --- (-149) --- (-30,72%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK --- 34.675 --- 38.877 --- (-4.202) --- (-10,81%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Breza --- 1.204 --- 932 --- (+272) --- (+29,18%)
Doboj-Jug --- 330 --- 410 --- (-80) --- (-19,51%)
Zenica --- 9.664 --- 10.844 --- (-1.180) --- (-10,88%)
Kakanj --- 3.403 --- 3.694 --- (-291) --- (-7,88%)
Maglaj --- 1.632 --- 1.903 --- (-271) --- (-14,24%)
Olovo --- 646 --- 721 --- (-75) --- (-10,40%)
Tešanj --- 4.460 --- 4.512 --- (-52) --- (-1,15%)
Usora --- 194 --- 265 --- (-71) --- (-26,79%)
Vareš --- 383 --- 457 --- (-74) --- (-16,19%)
Visoko --- 3.641 --- 3.644 --- (-3) --- (-0,08%)
Zavidovići --- 2.801 --- 3.178 --- (-377) --- (-11,86%)
Žepče --- 2.182 --- 2.455 --- (-273) --- (-11,12%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZDK --- 30.540 --- 33.015 --- (-2.475) --- (-7,50%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Foča (FBiH) --- 117 --- 95 --- (+22) --- (+23,16%)
Goražde --- 1.843 --- 1.925 --- (-82) --- (-4,26%)
Pale (FBiH) --- 48 --- 47 --- (+1) --- (+2,13%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BPK --- 2.008 --- 2.067 --- (-59) --- (-2,85%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bugojno --- 2.201 --- 2.405 --- (-204) --- (-8,48%)
Busovača --- 1.272 --- 1.563 --- (-291) --- (-18,62%)
Dobretići --- 9 --- 28 --- (-19) --- (-67,86%)
Donji Vakuf --- 1.078 --- 1.255 --- (-177) --- (-14,10%)
Fojnica --- 822 --- 1.073 --- (-251) --- (-23,39%)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje --- 1.131 --- 1.405 --- (-274) --- (-19,50%)
Jajce --- 1.503 --- 1.757 --- (-254) --- (-14,46%)
Kiseljak --- 1.801 --- 1.593 --- (+208) --- (+13,06%)
Kreševo --- 241 --- 342 --- (-101) --- (-29,53%)
Novi Travnik --- 1.788 --- 2.108 --- (-320) --- (-15,18%)
Travnik --- 4.031 --- 4.474 --- (-443) --- (-9,90%)
Vitez --- 2.026 --- 2.105 --- (-79) --- (-3,75%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SBK --- 17.903 --- 20.108 --- (-2.205) --- (-10,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Čapljina --- 1.629 --- 1.582 --- (+47) --- (+2,97%)
Čitluk --- 1.380 --- 1.429 --- (-49) --- (-3,43%)
Mostar --- 8.759 --- 9.222 --- (-463) --- (-5,02%)
Jablanica --- 640 --- 710 --- (-70) --- (-9,86%)
Konjic --- 1.664 --- 1.773 --- (-109) --- (-6,15%)
Neum --- 309 --- 46 --- (+263) --- (+571,74%)
Prozor --- 716 --- 895 --- (-179) --- (-20,00%)
Ravno --- 18 --- 3 --- (+15) --- (+500,00%)
Stolac --- 726 --- 793 --- (-67) --- (-8,45%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HNK --- 15.841 --- 16.453 --- (-612) --- (-3,72%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Široki Brijeg --- 2.526 --- 2.731 --- (-205) --- (-7,51%)
Grude --- 1.216 --- 963 --- (+253) --- (+26,27%)
Ljubuški --- 1.799 --- 1.816 --- (-17) --- (-0,94%)
Posušje --- 1.635 --- 1.312 --- (+323) --- (+24,62%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZHK --- 7.176 --- 6.822 --- (+354) --- (+5,19%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Sarajevo --- 24.561 --- 27.613 --- (-3.052) --- (-11,05%)
Centar Sarajevo --- 5.555 --- 5.672 --- (-117) --- (-2,06%)
Novi Grad Sarajevo --- 11.212 --- 12.067 --- (-855) --- (-7,09%)
Novo Sarajevo --- 5.661 --- 6.382 --- (-721) --- (-11,30%)
Stari Grad Sarajevo --- 2.133 --- 3.492 --- (-1.359) --- (-38,92%)
Hadžići --- 2.103 --- 2.259 --- (-156) --- (-6,91%)
Ilidža --- 6.746 --- 6.727 --- (+19) --- (+0,28%)
Ilijaš --- 1.971 --- 2.726 --- (-755) --- (-27,70%)
Trnovo (FBiH) --- 48 --- 114 --- (-66) --- (-57,89%)
Vogošća --- 2.964 --- 2.932 --- (32) --- (+1,09%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KS --- 38.393 --- 42.371 --- (-3.978) --- (-9,39%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosansko Grahovo --- 31 --- 64 --- (-33) --- (-51,56%)
Drvar --- 300 --- 304 --- (-4) --- (-1,32%)
Glamoč --- 197 --- 243 --- (-46) --- (-18,93%)
Livno --- 1,401 --- 1,714 --- (-313) --- (-18,26%)
Kupres --- 171 --- 175 --- (-4) --- (-2,29%)
Tomislavgrad --- 1.195 --- 1.389 --- (-194) --- (-13,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HBK --- 3.295 --- 3.889 --- (-594) --- (-15,27%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FBiH --- 166.817 --- 186.364 --- (-19.547) --- (-10,49%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BiH --- 256.343 --- 281.887 --- (-25.544) --- (-9,06%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Za Brcko je stvarni minus manji jer se upisuju rodjeni u Republici Srpskoj i iz Federacije koji se ne skoluju u Brckom. Oko 600 - 700 iz opstina Samac, Pelagicevo i Donji Zabar u RS, a verovatno i vise od toga iz opstina Celic, Gradacac i Srebrenik (samo se ovde ne vidi plus kao u RS zbog velikog iseljavanja).
2. Za opstinu Stanari rodjeni 2009. i 2010. godine su ubrojani pod opstinu Doboj (najbolje je te dve opstine racunati zajedno).
3. Jedan deo minusa u Republici Srpskoj je od Bosnjaka. U opstinama Prijedor, Novi Grad, Gradiska, Kotor Varos, Doboj (+Stanari), Teslic, Vukosavlje, Bratunac, Bijeljina, Zvornik i Srebrenica rodjeno je 4.196 Bosnjaka, sto je 78% od ukupno 5.377 Bosnjaka rodjenih u RS 2009 – 2017. Te opstine imaju vece gubitke nego drugde (-2.153 od ukupno -3.574).

Ovo poredjenje otprilike pokazuje koliko dece u BiH emigrira u prosecnom periodu od 10-11 godina nakon rodjenja, jer je proecna starost osnovnoskolaca 10-11 godina. Kao sto je vec poznato, USK ima relativno najvece iseljavanje, vise od cele Republike Srpske.

https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/

https://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/6376/

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2024/BRC_05_2023_TB_1_BS.pdf

zet · **Pridružen/a:** 03 vel 2024, 00:34 **Postovi:** 1003

Sto se dogadja u Neumu?
A sto u Kiseljaku?

Revolucionar · **Pridružen/a:** 29 tra 2023, 16:20 **Postovi:** 768

zet je napisao/la:

Sto se dogadja u Neumu?
A sto u Kiseljaku?

U Neumu je plus zbog rodjenih u Hrvatskoj.

U Kiseljaku ima doseljavanja, a tamo se skoluju i neka deca iz okolnih opstina.

Rika sv Vida · **Pridružen/a:** 01 kol 2020, 12:37 **Postovi:** 15617

18 učenika u Ravnom :herceg_bosna

Svaka čast Revolucionar na ovoj analizi

Revolucionar · **Pridružen/a:** 29 tra 2023, 16:20 **Postovi:** 768

Rika sv Vida je napisao/la:

18 učenika u Ravnom :herceg_bosna

Svaka čast Revolucionar na ovoj analizi

dudu

U Kiseljaku je dijelom plus od Bošnjaka iz Kreševa jer nemaju svoju školu u Kreševu.

Rika sv Vida · **Pridružen/a:** 01 kol 2020, 12:37 **Postovi:** 15617

26% djece nestalo iz školi iz USK.
Ić će to još gore. Ove školske godine je upisalo preko 30% manje djece u prve razrede nego što je rođeno pred 6 godina.
Da podsjetim da u srednjoj školi u Bihaću na pitanje novinara tko planira otić iz zemlje kad završi školu svi u razredu digli ruku. Bez iznimke.
Dakle ovo su samo djeca koja su iselila s roditeljima ili koju su lažno upisali u FZSu. Većina ih planira selit samostalno kad završe škole.

Noname01 · **Pridružen/a:** 21 lip 2023, 14:22 **Postovi:** 3330

dudu je napisao/la:

U Kiseljaku je dijelom plus od Bošnjaka iz Kreševa jer nemaju svoju školu u Kreševu.

Ali BNPP ima i određen broj Roma.
Isto kao i u Vitezu.

https://www.vecernji.ba/vijesti/kiselja ... me-1760387

https://mozks-ksb.ba/wp-content/uploads ... VLADI.docx

Robbie MO

Rika sv Vida je napisao/la:

26% djece nestalo iz školi iz USK.
Ić će to još gore. Ove školske godine je upisalo preko 30% manje djece u prve razrede nego što je rođeno pred 6 godina.
Da podsjetim da u srednjoj školi u Bihaću na pitanje novinara tko planira otić iz zemlje kad završi školu svi u razredu digli ruku. Bez iznimke.
Dakle ovo su samo djeca koja su iselila s roditeljima ili koju su lažno upisali u FZSu. Većina ih planira selit samostalno kad završe škole.

Da, onaj tko ne ode s roditeljima otići će sam.

Sjećam se da je načelnik Bužima reko da im 30% mladih ode srednju školu pohađat u Sloveniju. :eek

zet · **Pridružen/a:** 03 vel 2024, 00:34 **Postovi:** 1003

Zapadna Hercegovina + Istocna Hercegovina (Regija Trebinje) prakticki na nuli.

Toliko o tome kako je to besperspektivni kamenjar :)

Robbie MO

Bužim je nekad bio glavni konkurent Posušju za titulu najmlađe općine u BiH, na drugu decimalu smo morali računati da vidimo tko je jači.

Tada smo također naivno vjerovali podacima ili procjeni da Bužim ima sličan broj stanovnika kao Posušje. :ucelo

U međuvremenu je propo ko muda kroz gaće. :zubati

Bužim ima nekih 11 100 osiguranika ZZO, pad sa 11 500 prije dvije godine.

Do 2030 cijela općina ispod 10k, tako da postaje irelevantna za spominjati, premalena da na bilo šta utječe.

Noname01 · **Pridružen/a:** 21 lip 2023, 14:22 **Postovi:** 3330

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/qypJCroRv1dmHDQS/

Trovanje djece i stvaranje budućih bolesnika.

Robbie MO

Ako se ne varam, Široki je sada po broju rođenih ispred svake općine u USK.

Ustvari, jedina moguća konkurencija su Bihać i Cazin.

Bili.

Robbie MO

Ove nebuline tablice su najrelevantniji demografski podatak, bitniji i od broja rođenih.

slika

Zašto?

Jer je iseljavanje postao jači proces od rađanja.

Prirodni priraštaj je manji minus u odnosu na saldo iseljenih.

I jasno je da iseljavanje daleko brže mijenja općine od spore prirodne demografske promjene.

Prema tome, od otvaranja Njemačke 2018 podaci o rođenjima ili prvašićima su postali DRUGORAZREDNI (hvataju tek jednu generaciju), i tko misli drugačije pregazilo ga je vrijeme.

Robbie MO

Je je slučajnost da u gornjoj tablici daleki najsporiji pad ima Tešanj?

Je li slučajnost da u TK Sapna i Teočak imaju najbrži pad?

Nije.

To su sve jake anegdotalne potvrde validnosti i smisla tablice.

Po gornjoj tablici barem Sanski Most i Ključ nemaju stopu nataliteta 3 promila, koliko se dobije ako se broj rođenih podijeli s popisanima 2013.

Iako se meni čini i ovdje Sanski Most precijenjen.

novem · **Pridružen/a:** 27 lis 2010, 16:06 **Postovi:** 29636

Tuzla i Zenica, nekad veliki industrijski gradovi, danas katastrofa.
Tešanj, svojevremeno zabit mahala, danas centar Bangladeš-industrije.

HercegBosna.org

1995.-2024. Demografska Santa Barbara

Online