RS pad od 4.1%
FBiH pad od 10.49%

Kad se usporede RS i FBiH to je kao da se usporedjuju dva razlicita svijeta.

Evo, dodao sam ih:

Analiza broja ucenika u osnovnim skolama (svih 9 razreda) 2023/2024 i poredjenje sa zivorodjenima u periodu 2009 - 2017. Mislim da ovo dobro pokazuje prave razmere iseljavanja.

Opstina --- Broj ucenika 2023/2024 --- Zivorodjeni (2009 – 2017) --- (Razlika) --- (Razlika %)

Prijedor --- 4.656 --- 5.118 --- (-462) --- (-9,03%)
Kostajnica --- 278 --- 272 --- (+6) --- (+2,21%)
Kozarska Dubica --- 1.150 --- 1.240 --- (-90) --- (-7,26%)
Krupa na Uni --- 64 --- 71 --- (-7) --- (-9,86%)
Novi Grad --- 1.391 --- 1.520 --- (-129) --- (-8,49%)
Oštra Luka --- 151 --- 184 --- (-33) --- (-17,93%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Prijedor --- 7.690 --- 8.405 --- (-715) --- (-8,51%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Čelinac --- 1.161 --- 1.310 --- (-149) --- (-11,37%)
Banja Luka --- 16.890 --- 18.170 --- (-1.280) --- (-7,04%)
Gradiška --- 3.269 --- 3.573 --- (-304) --- (-8,51%)
Istočni Drvar --- 0 --- 3 --- (-3) --- (-100,00%)
Jezero --- 86 --- 69 --- (+17) --- (+24,64%)
Kneževo --- 495 --- 679 --- (-184) --- (-27,10%)
Kotor Varoš --- 1.284 --- 1.530 --- (-246) --- (-16,08%)
Kupres (RS) --- 10 --- 12 --- (-2) --- (-16,67%)
Laktaši --- 2.963 --- 2.845 --- (+118) --- (+4,15%)
Mrkonjić Grad --- 1.016 --- 1.224 --- (-208) --- (-16,99%)
Petrovac --- 83 --- 51 --- (+32) --- (+62,75%)
Prnjavor --- 2.409 --- 2.795 --- (-386) --- (-13,81%)
Ribnik --- 355 --- 360 --- (-5) --- (-1,39%)
Srbac --- 1.316 --- 1.292 --- (+24) --- (+1,86%)
Šipovo --- 650 --- 706 --- (-56) --- (-7,93%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Banja Luka --- 31.987 --- 34.619 --- (-2.632) --- (-7,60%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brod --- 956 --- 916 --- (+40) --- (+4,37%)
Donji Žabar --- 156 --- 16 --- (+140) --- (+875,00%)
Derventa --- 1.862 --- 1.953 --- (-91) --- (-4,66%)
Doboj --- 4.619 --- 4.904 --- (-285) --- (-5,81%)
Modriča --- 1.606 --- 1.616 --- (-10) --- (-0,62%)
Pelagićevo --- 196 --- 25 --- (+171) --- (+684,00%)
Petrovo --- 382 --- 421 --- (-39) --- (-9,26%)
Stanari --- 424 --- 392 --- (+32) --- (+8,16%)
Šamac --- 841 --- 518 --- (+323) --- (+62,36%)
Teslić --- 2.754 --- 3.129 --- (-375) --- (-11,98%)
Vukosavlje --- 236 --- 279 --- (-43) --- (-15,41%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Doboj --- 14.032 --- 14.169 --- (-137) --- (-0,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bratunac --- 1.106 --- 1.121 --- (-15) --- (-1,34%)
Bijeljina --- 8.291 --- 8.341 --- (-50) --- (-0,60%)
Zvornik --- 3.374 --- 3.611 --- (-237) --- (-6,56%)
Lopare --- 463 --- 524 --- (-61) --- (-11,64%)
Milići --- 471 --- 551 --- (-80) --- (-14,52%)
Osmaci --- 181 --- 221 --- (-40) --- (-18,10%)
Srebrenica --- 437 --- 476 --- (-39) --- (-8,19%)
Šekovići --- 327 --- 390 --- (-63) --- (-16,15%)
Ugljevik --- 976 --- 984 --- (-8) --- (-0,81%)
Vlasenica --- 622 --- 702 --- (-80) --- (-11,40%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Bijeljina --- 16.248 --- 16.921 --- (-673) --- (-3,98%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Istočno Sarajevo --- 5.173 --- 4.681 --- (+492) --- (+10,51%)
Istočna Ilidža --- 1.395 --- 1.142 --- (+253) --- (+22,15%)
Istočni Stari Grad --- 11 --- 90 --- (-79) --- (-87,78%)
Istočno Novo Sarajevo --- 1.230 --- 948 --- (+282) --- (+29,75%)
Pale --- 1.671 --- 1.607 --- (+64) --- (+3,98%)
Sokolac --- 809 --- 839 --- (-30) --- (-3,58%)
Trnovo --- 57 --- 55 --- (+2) --- (+3,64%)
Han Pijesak --- 210 --- 227 --- (-17) --- (-7,49%)
Rogatica --- 754 --- 806 --- (-52) --- (-6,45%)
Rudo --- 241 --- 222 --- (+19) --- (+8,56%)
Višegrad --- 552 --- 448 --- (+104) --- (+23,21%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Istočno Sarajevo --- 6.930 --- 6.384 --- (+546) --- (+8,55%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Berkovići --- 142 --- 133 --- (+9) --- (+6,77%)
Bileća --- 822 --- 838 --- (-16) --- (-1,91%)
Čajniče --- 237 --- 253 --- (-16) --- (-6,32%)
Foča --- 1.094 --- 1.121 --- (-27) --- (-2,41%)
Gacko --- 686 --- 704 --- (-18) --- (-2,56%)
Trebinje --- 2.606 --- 2.483 --- (+123) --- (+4,95%)
Istočni Mostar --- 0 --- 2 --- (-2) --- (-100,00%)
Kalinovik --- 53 --- 81 --- (-28) --- (-34,57%)
Ljubinje --- 250 --- 263 --- (-13) --- (-4,94%)
Nevesinje --- 861 --- 853 --- (+8) --- (+0,94%)
Novo Goražde --- 70 --- 53 --- (+17) --- (+32,08%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regija Trebinje --- 6.821 --- 6.784 --- (+37) --- (+0,55%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Republika Srpska --- 83.708 --- 87.282 --- (-3.574) --- (-4,09%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Brčko Distrikt --- 5.818 --- 8.241 --- (-2.423) --- (-29,40%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosanski Petrovac --- 317 --- 336 --- (-19) --- (-5,65%)
Bužim --- 1.515 --- 1.976 --- (-461) --- (-23,33%)
Bosanska Krupa --- 1.554 --- 2.278 --- (-724) --- (-31,78%)
Bihać --- 3.457 --- 4.610 --- (-1.153) --- (-25,01%)
Cazin --- 3.747 --- 5.065 --- (-1.318) --- (-26,02%)
Ključ --- 481 --- 682 --- (-201) --- (-29,47%)
Sanski Most --- 1.170 --- 1.639 --- (-469) --- (-28,62%)
Velika Kladuša --- 3.262 --- 4.362 --- (-1.100) --- (-25,22%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USK --- 15.503 --- 20.948 --- (-5.445) --- (-25,99%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Domaljevac-Šamac --- 121 --- 161 --- (-40) --- (-24,84%)
Orašje --- 761 --- 964 --- (-203) --- (-21,06%)
Odžak --- 601 --- 689 --- (-88) --- (-12,77%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PK --- 1.483 --- 1.814 --- (-331) --- (-18,25%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Banovići --- 1.878 --- 2.258 --- (-380) --- (-16,83%)
Čelić --- 657 --- 633 --- (+24) --- (+3,79%)
Doboj-Istok --- 862 --- 920 --- (-58) --- (-6,30%)
Gračanica --- 4.140 --- 4.430 --- (-290) --- (-6,55%)
Tuzla --- 8.276 --- 9.406 --- (-1.130) --- (-12,01%)
Gradačac --- 3.319 --- 3.410 --- (-91) --- (-2,67%)
Lukavac --- 2.873 --- 3.441 --- (-568) --- (-16,51%)
Srebrenik --- 3.388 --- 3.554 --- (-166) --- (-4,67%)
Živinice --- 4.875 --- 5.648 --- (-773) --- (-13,69%)
Kalesija --- 2.704 --- 3.053 --- (-349) --- (-11,43%)
Kladanj --- 815 --- 893 --- (-78) --- (-8,73%)
Sapna --- 552 --- 746 --- (-194) --- (-26,01%)
Teočak --- 336 --- 485 --- (-149) --- (-30,72%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TK --- 34.675 --- 38.877 --- (-4.202) --- (-10,81%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Breza --- 1.204 --- 932 --- (+272) --- (+29,18%)
Doboj-Jug --- 330 --- 410 --- (-80) --- (-19,51%)
Zenica --- 9.664 --- 10.844 --- (-1.180) --- (-10,88%)
Kakanj --- 3.403 --- 3.694 --- (-291) --- (-7,88%)
Maglaj --- 1.632 --- 1.903 --- (-271) --- (-14,24%)
Olovo --- 646 --- 721 --- (-75) --- (-10,40%)
Tešanj --- 4.460 --- 4.512 --- (-52) --- (-1,15%)
Usora --- 194 --- 265 --- (-71) --- (-26,79%)
Vareš --- 383 --- 457 --- (-74) --- (-16,19%)
Visoko --- 3.641 --- 3.644 --- (-3) --- (-0,08%)
Zavidovići --- 2.801 --- 3.178 --- (-377) --- (-11,86%)
Žepče --- 2.182 --- 2.455 --- (-273) --- (-11,12%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZDK --- 30.540 --- 33.015 --- (-2.475) --- (-7,50%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Foča (FBiH) --- 117 --- 95 --- (+22) --- (+23,16%)
Goražde --- 1.843 --- 1.925 --- (-82) --- (-4,26%)
Pale (FBiH) --- 48 --- 47 --- (+1) --- (+2,13%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BPK --- 2.008 --- 2.067 --- (-59) --- (-2,85%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bugojno --- 2.201 --- 2.405 --- (-204) --- (-8,48%)
Busovača --- 1.272 --- 1.563 --- (-291) --- (-18,62%)
Dobretići --- 9 --- 28 --- (-19) --- (-67,86%)
Donji Vakuf --- 1.078 --- 1.255 --- (-177) --- (-14,10%)
Fojnica --- 822 --- 1.073 --- (-251) --- (-23,39%)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje --- 1.131 --- 1.405 --- (-274) --- (-19,50%)
Jajce --- 1.503 --- 1.757 --- (-254) --- (-14,46%)
Kiseljak --- 1.801 --- 1.593 --- (+208) --- (+13,06%)
Kreševo --- 241 --- 342 --- (-101) --- (-29,53%)
Novi Travnik --- 1.788 --- 2.108 --- (-320) --- (-15,18%)
Travnik --- 4.031 --- 4.474 --- (-443) --- (-9,90%)
Vitez --- 2.026 --- 2.105 --- (-79) --- (-3,75%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SBK --- 17.903 --- 20.108 --- (-2.205) --- (-10,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Čapljina --- 1.629 --- 1.582 --- (+47) --- (+2,97%)
Čitluk --- 1.380 --- 1.429 --- (-49) --- (-3,43%)
Mostar --- 8.759 --- 9.222 --- (-463) --- (-5,02%)
Jablanica --- 640 --- 710 --- (-70) --- (-9,86%)
Konjic --- 1.664 --- 1.773 --- (-109) --- (-6,15%)
Neum --- 309 --- 46 --- (+263) --- (+571,74%)
Prozor --- 716 --- 895 --- (-179) --- (-20,00%)
Ravno --- 18 --- 3 --- (+15) --- (+500,00%)
Stolac --- 726 --- 793 --- (-67) --- (-8,45%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HNK --- 15.841 --- 16.453 --- (-612) --- (-3,72%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Široki Brijeg --- 2.526 --- 2.731 --- (-205) --- (-7,51%)
Grude --- 1.216 --- 963 --- (+253) --- (+26,27%)
Ljubuški --- 1.799 --- 1.816 --- (-17) --- (-0,94%)
Posušje --- 1.635 --- 1.312 --- (+323) --- (+24,62%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ZHK --- 7.176 --- 6.822 --- (+354) --- (+5,19%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grad Sarajevo --- 24.561 --- 27.613 --- (-3.052) --- (-11,05%)
Centar Sarajevo --- 5.555 --- 5.672 --- (-117) --- (-2,06%)
Novi Grad Sarajevo --- 11.212 --- 12.067 --- (-855) --- (-7,09%)
Novo Sarajevo --- 5.661 --- 6.382 --- (-721) --- (-11,30%)
Stari Grad Sarajevo --- 2.133 --- 3.492 --- (-1.359) --- (-38,92%)
Hadžići --- 2.103 --- 2.259 --- (-156) --- (-6,91%)
Ilidža --- 6.746 --- 6.727 --- (+19) --- (+0,28%)
Ilijaš --- 1.971 --- 2.726 --- (-755) --- (-27,70%)
Trnovo (FBiH) --- 48 --- 114 --- (-66) --- (-57,89%)
Vogošća --- 2.964 --- 2.932 --- (32) --- (+1,09%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KS --- 38.393 --- 42.371 --- (-3.978) --- (-9,39%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bosansko Grahovo --- 31 --- 64 --- (-33) --- (-51,56%)
Drvar --- 300 --- 304 --- (-4) --- (-1,32%)
Glamoč --- 197 --- 243 --- (-46) --- (-18,93%)
Livno --- 1,401 --- 1,714 --- (-313) --- (-18,26%)
Kupres --- 171 --- 175 --- (-4) --- (-2,29%)
Tomislavgrad --- 1.195 --- 1.389 --- (-194) --- (-13,97%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HBK --- 3.295 --- 3.889 --- (-594) --- (-15,27%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FBiH --- 166.817 --- 186.364 --- (-19.547) --- (-10,49%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BiH --- 256.343 --- 281.887 --- (-25.544) --- (-9,06%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Za Brcko je stvarni minus manji jer se upisuju rodjeni u Republici Srpskoj i iz Federacije koji se ne skoluju u Brckom. Oko 600 - 700 iz opstina Samac, Pelagicevo i Donji Zabar u RS, a verovatno i vise od toga iz opstina Celic, Gradacac i Srebrenik (samo se ovde ne vidi plus kao u RS zbog velikog iseljavanja).
2. Za opstinu Stanari rodjeni 2009. i 2010. godine su ubrojani pod opstinu Doboj (najbolje je te dve opstine racunati zajedno).
3. Jedan deo minusa u Republici Srpskoj je od Bosnjaka. U opstinama Prijedor, Novi Grad, Gradiska, Kotor Varos, Doboj (+Stanari), Teslic, Vukosavlje, Bratunac, Bijeljina, Zvornik i Srebrenica rodjeno je 4.196 Bosnjaka, sto je 78% od ukupno 5.377 Bosnjaka rodjenih u RS 2009 – 2017. Te opstine imaju vece gubitke nego drugde (-2.153 od ukupno -3.574).

Ovo poredjenje otprilike pokazuje koliko dece u BiH emigrira u prosecnom periodu od 10-11 godina nakon rodjenja, jer je proecna starost osnovnoskolaca 10-11 godina. Kao sto je vec poznato, USK ima relativno najvece iseljavanje, vise od cele Republike Srpske.

https://fzs.ba/index.php/bosanski-bilteni/obrazovanje/

https://www.rzs.rs.ba/front/article/6376/

https://bhas.gov.ba/data/Publikacije/Bilteni/2024/BRC_05_2023_TB_1_BS.pdf

Sto se dogadja u Neumu?
A sto u Kiseljaku?

U Neumu je plus zbog rodjenih u Hrvatskoj.

U Kiseljaku ima doseljavanja, a tamo se skoluju i neka deca iz okolnih opstina.

18 učenika u Ravnom

Svaka čast Revolucionar na ovoj analizi

U Kiseljaku je dijelom plus od Bošnjaka iz Kreševa jer nemaju svoju školu u Kreševu.

26% djece nestalo iz školi iz USK.
Ić će to još gore. Ove školske godine je upisalo preko 30% manje djece u prve razrede nego što je rođeno pred 6 godina.
Da podsjetim da u srednjoj školi u Bihaću na pitanje novinara tko planira otić iz zemlje kad završi školu svi u razredu digli ruku. Bez iznimke.
Dakle ovo su samo djeca koja su iselila s roditeljima ili koju su lažno upisali u FZSu. Većina ih planira selit samostalno kad završe škole.

Ali BNPP ima i određen broj Roma.
Isto kao i u Vitezu.

https://www.vecernji.ba/vijesti/kiselja ... me-1760387


https://mozks-ksb.ba/wp-content/uploads ... VLADI.docx

Da, onaj tko ne ode s roditeljima otići će sam.

Sjećam se da je načelnik Bužima reko da im 30% mladih ode srednju školu pohađat u Sloveniju.

Zapadna Hercegovina + Istocna Hercegovina (Regija Trebinje) prakticki na nuli.

Toliko o tome kako je to besperspektivni kamenjar :)

Bužim je nekad bio glavni konkurent Posušju za titulu najmlađe općine u BiH, na drugu decimalu smo morali računati da vidimo tko je jači.

Tada smo također naivno vjerovali podacima ili procjeni da Bužim ima sličan broj stanovnika kao Posušje.

U međuvremenu je propo ko muda kroz gaće.

Bužim ima nekih 11 100 osiguranika ZZO, pad sa 11 500 prije dvije godine.

Do 2030 cijela općina ispod 10k, tako da postaje irelevantna za spominjati, premalena da na bilo šta utječe.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/qypJCroRv1dmHDQS/

Trovanje djece i stvaranje budućih bolesnika.

Ako se ne varam, Široki je sada po broju rođenih ispred svake općine u USK.

Ustvari, jedina moguća konkurencija su Bihać i Cazin.

Bili.

Ove nebuline tablice su najrelevantniji demografski podatak, bitniji i od broja rođenih.



Zašto?

Jer je iseljavanje postao jači proces od rađanja.

Prirodni priraštaj je manji minus u odnosu na saldo iseljenih.

I jasno je da iseljavanje daleko brže mijenja općine od spore prirodne demografske promjene.

Prema tome, od otvaranja Njemačke 2018 podaci o rođenjima ili prvašićima su postali DRUGORAZREDNI (hvataju tek jednu generaciju), i tko misli drugačije pregazilo ga je vrijeme.

Je je slučajnost da u gornjoj tablici daleki najsporiji pad ima Tešanj?

Je li slučajnost da u TK Sapna i Teočak imaju najbrži pad?

Nije.

To su sve jake anegdotalne potvrde validnosti i smisla tablice.

Po gornjoj tablici barem Sanski Most i Ključ nemaju stopu nataliteta 3 promila, koliko se dobije ako se broj rođenih podijeli s popisanima 2013.

Iako se meni čini i ovdje Sanski Most precijenjen.

Tuzla i Zenica, nekad veliki industrijski gradovi, danas katastrofa.
Tešanj, svojevremeno zabit mahala, danas centar Bangladeš-industrije.

Sapna i Teočak su dno. Mislim da tamo ima dosta Roma.
Dok je bio vizni režim EU s BiH tamo su najviše vraćali lažne azilatne.

Sistemska greska sa njegovim podacima su penzioneri, ali oni ionako ne iseljavaju.

Promene broja osiguranika iz godine u godinu mogu biti posledica emigracije, a mogu biti i zbog azuriranja baze podataka.

Revolucionar, koja je tvoja procjena s obzirom na sve navedeno, ukupno stanovnika u BiH trenutno?

Usporedi samo tip industrije u Širokom s tipom industrije u Tešnju.

U Širokom rukovanje sa strojevima, pritiskanje dugmadi, nadzor.

U Tešnju šivanje, štrikanje, lijepljenje, manualni rad golim rukama. Takva industrija ne pripada u Europu i na par sati vožnje do Njemačke, neodržive su plaće vjerojatno 2-3 puta manje nego u Širokom.

E da. Ali upravo se suniti diče s Tešnjem, što ti zapravo sve kaže.
Daj šta daš, pa neka je i 800 maraka ako je i toliko. Tekstilna i obućarska
industrija su uvijek najlošije plaćali.

Tešanj je privremena anomalija, kao smilje.

Počiva na pretpostavci da će vječno biti radne snage za 400 eura, pored žive i otvorene Njemačke.

To je tek privremeni vremenski prozor gdje još ima ljudi koji su to spremni prihvatit.


Proizvodnja kakva se radi u Tešnju ne diže plaću za 50%. Nego se zatvara i seli u siromašnije dijelove Azije.

Tu su vjerojatno najviše ti od 40-60 g. koji nigdje nisu prispjeli. Moraju, nemaju izbora.
Evo u RS-u je u toj grani minimalac 750 KM.

https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/vijesti/bih ... nak-909431

Oko 2,8 miliona (RS oko milion, DB 65k, FBiH 1,75 miliona).

Ima dosta starih ljudi koji se ne iseljavaju. Ovi minusi u osnovnim skolama u odnosu na rodjene daju nam neku procenu emigracije u periodu od 10 godina, ali za mladje kohorte stanovnistva.