KUHNER: The coming Balkan war

The Washington Times

Jeffrey T. Kuhner

April 19, 2011


Croatia is headed toward another war. The Balkans - again - will explode with violence. It is only a matter of time. And the so-called “international community” has been pivotal in stoking the flames of ethnic conflict.

Recently, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) based in The Hague, Netherlands, sentenced Croatian Gen. Ante Gotovina to 24 years in prison. The ICTY’s ruling rightly has sparked angry protests across Croatia.

Gen. Gotovina has been convicted for having “command responsibility” over an August 1995 military campaign, known as Operation Storm, that effectively ended the Croat-Serbian war. The ICTY alleges that the Croatian general oversaw the expulsion of 100,000 ethnic Serbs and the murder of hundreds of civilians. According to the United Nations war crimes court, the campaign constituted a “joint criminal enterprise.”

The ICTY’s verdict is preposterous and outrageous. Gen. Gotovina is not a war criminal; rather, he is a Croatian patriot and hero whose campaign restored Croatia’s territorial integrity. Moreover, it delivered a decisive blow to the late Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic’s dream of a “Greater Serbia.”

From 1991 until 1995, Milosevic’s marauders rampaged across the region. He used the disintegration of Yugoslavia - a synthetic multinational state - to advance his goal of establishing a Great Serbian empire stretching from the Danube to the Adriatic. In Croatia, Serbian paramilitaries - aided and abetted by the Yugoslav army - waged a brutal war of aggression. The result: A third of Croatia’s territory was annexed, more than 180,000 Croatians were ethnically cleansed, and nearly 20,000 civilians were murdered. Milosevic’s aim was to unite the truncated parts of Croatia with the nearly 70 percent of territory his forces had carved out in neighboring Bosnia. Call it state-building through genocidal partition.

Operation Storm put a stop to all of this. Gen. Gotovina’s army launched a U.S.-backed offensive that was a stunning success: Civilian casualties were minimized, the campaign lasted just three days, and the crushing defeat of the rebel Serbs eventually paved the way for the signing of the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.

Moreover, numerous media outlets - The Washington Times, the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek and the Jerusalem Post - have investigated Operation Storm and have concluded that Gen. Gotovina is innocent of any wrongdoing. He never personally ordered or tolerated the commission of any crimes. In fact, the ICTY’s prosecution was dismal on this point. It failed to show any kind of proof that Gen. Gotovina was responsible for orchestrating a criminal conspiracy. The reason is a simple one: He couldn’t have.

The orders to evacuate the Serbian population from the so-called “Krajina” zone of occupation came from Belgrade several days before the commencement of Operation Storm. Milosevic, realizing he was facing a military humiliation, ordered Croatia’s Serbs transferred to Bosnia and Kosovo to consolidate his revanchist gains there. This was done before Croatian forces even launched their campaign. Hence, the entire Gotovina conviction and prosecution rests on a giant fraud: The removal of the Serbian population occurred under the explicit command of local Serb authorities acting under the authority of Belgrade. Therefore, Croatian forces could not have committed “ethnic cleansing.” The ICTY verdict is a sham.

The U.N. court is a politicized vehicle that aspires to render history’s final judgment on the Balkan wars of the 1990s. And its verdict is clear: All sides were guilty of atrocities; no party - or nation - was more responsible than the other. This is what Serbia has been demanding for years. It has sought to cover its genocidal culpability and national shame with moral equivalence.

Hence, the Gotovina conviction is a major triumph for Belgrade. Already, Serbian revanchists are claiming that the ICTY’s ruling enables Croatia’s international borders to be altered. Led by the odious Tomislav Nikolic, Belgrade’s nationalists are surging in the polls. They are demanding the restoration of a Greater Serbia. The ICTY has shown them the way forward: If Croatia’s war for independence was a “joint criminal enterprise,” then the entire Croatian state - by that twisted logic - is founded upon war crimes and ethnic cleansing.

This is why Croatia’s ruling party, the HDZ, should never have sent Gen. Gotovina to The Hague. That it was a precondition for Zagreb’s entry into the European Union only underscores how reckless and contrary to Croatia’s national interests fast-track European Union membership is. The HDZ claims it will help Gen. Gotovina’s legal team with the verdict’s appeal. This is a dollar short and a day late. The ICTY is a kangaroo court determined to make an example out of the Croatian general. His fate is sealed no matter what the Croatian government does - and HDZ leaders know this.

The HDZ regime is fundamentally treasonous. After having won the war, Zagreb is losing the peace. The HDZ has betrayed Gen. Gotovina, the country’s veterans and Croatia’s hard-won independence. It has sold Croatia down the river in a mad dash to appease Brussels. The HDZ must be defeated, swept into the dustbin of history and replaced with a new conservative party - one that will provide voters with a real patriotic-populist option.

Croatians must demand that Zagreb end its unconditional cooperation with the ICTY, withdraw its bid to join the EU, free Gen. Gotovina, have all cases at The Hague transferred to domestic courts and insist that the ICTY stop its assault on Croatia’s territorial legitimacy. In short, it is time to put Croatia first.

The ICTY’s ruling has given ultranationalist Serbs what they want: another shot at splintering Croatia. The winds of war are blowing. Handing over Gen. Gotovina to The Hague was a colossal mistake. Zagreb will rue the day.

Jeffrey T. Kuhner is a columnist at The Washington Times and president of the Edmund Burke Institute.

Kuhner is engaging in a bit of hyperbole here, but he does it to draw attention to his position. It is however interesting to note that Davor Butkovic is now begging the EU to speed up Croatia's entry because he fears that "nationalists will again dominate Croatia" if the process is held up even longer. He goes further and says that any more delays will only embolden nationalists in both Croatia and Serbia to partition Bosnia as Nikolic looks ascedant across the Danube.

Does anyone know if Sacic is looking to set up a new party? He has been very visible lately and seems to be laying the groundwork to do so.

I think its exaggeration. Gotovina case and reactions (primarily serbian) can not affect and will not lead to new conflicts. Its meter of daily politics.
New war will come to Balkan one day, but probably not so soon and probably for other reasons. Serbia have no enough strength to attack Croatia, but both, Croatia and Serbia have enough strength to resolve the "Bosnian issue", which is very painful and topical in these days.

Max

I don't know if Sacic is setting up a new party but I agree he has been getting a lot of press. I think the powers that be in Zagreb are scared of him. There is a short piece on HRSvijet that talks about this.

http://www.hrsvijet.net/index.php?optio ... a&Itemid=9

I was surprised that Kuhner's piece was posted all over the place and maybe it is because of how he makes his points.

The rise of nationalism is not just a concern to the left in Croatia but for parts of the EU as the recent elections in Finland demonstrated. Not to mention the problems with Belgium and the rise of the Hungarian nationalists last year.

IIRC, there was talk of Sacic being implicated in the events at Grubori in August 1995 as part of an attempted coverup. That may just be the press up to their usual shit.



Kuhner is tied into several organizations that are just outside of the mainstream on the American right, but not too far away from the establishment. He therefore has access and his writings will be picked up widely, particularly if they engage in a bit of sensationalism.



Have you read about the new Magyar Constitution? It's quite amazing. There is now a hard right band stretching from Switzerland through Northern Italy, Austria, and into Hungary.

Max

I was unaware that the Hungarians had been working on a new draft for their constitution. So I started digging around and found a complete translation of the new draft constitution. It was too long to read in one sitting, but some of the stuff I read I like and I pointed it out below:

You can read the entire draft here: http://tasz.hu/files/tasz/imce/alternat ... ituion.pdf

Article D
Hungary, guided by the notion of a single Hungarian nation, shall bear responsibility for the
fate of Hungarians living outside its borders, shall foster the survival and development of their
communities, shall support their endeavours to preserve their Hungarian identity, and shall
promote their cooperation with each other and with Hungary.

Article E
For the authorisation to recognise the binding force of an international treaty referred to in
Paragraph (2), the votes of two-thirds of all Members of Parliament shall be required.

Article G
(1) The child of a Hungarian citizen shall be a Hungarian citizen by birth. A cardinal Act of
Parliament may specify other grounds for the origin or acquisition of Hungarian citizenship.
(2) Hungary shall defend its citizens.
(3) No person may be deprived of his or her Hungarian citizenship, provided it was legitimately
acquired at birth or in any other lawful manner.
(4) The detailed rules relating to citizenship shall be laid down in a cardinal Act of Parliament.

Article O
(2) Natural resources, especially arable land and the stock of drinking water, as well as biological
diversity and cultural values shall be the nation’s common heritage; the State and every
individual shall be duty-bound to preserve them for future generations.

It's no longer a draft. It's been approved by the Parliament.

I've been making some notes. Start here.

Max I was reading the notes and I was surprised that the Hungarians wanted to keep the Forint.

I had assumed that the countries in Central Europe had ditched their currencies a few years back. I was mistaken after I poked around and saw that those countries have not adopted the Euro as their sole currency.

So as I read the new Hungarian constitution, it is reinforcing something that I am starting to believe will be a real issue for nations as we move deeper into the 21st century and that will be resource management on a national scale.

The fact that the Hungarian constitution specifically mentions it in Article O as a duty to preserve resources combined with the continued use of the Forint, which presumably acts as a hedge against any possible collapse of the Euro seems to support my thoughts. Not to mention Article D where the Hungarians want to take a proactive role in helping Hungarians outside of Hungary - people are also a resource no?

Energy Policy is simply another form of National Security as scarcity increases in respect to traditional forms such as oil and gas. We've seen how wars start due to the need for it and how large suppliers will use their supply as leverage from those who require it. As demand increases globally, energy politics become more important and smart leaders will devise means to ensure a steady and reliable supply to prevent local shocks.

As oil and gas get scarcer, the big fish will be the ones fighting for it. The little fish will probably be without it sooner or get "leveraged" into something they don't want because of their dependence to it.

This is where I think Croatia should really look at building a new grid powered by renewable energy, so that they can be independent of the availability of gas and oil.

Being in the renewable energy sector, I'm hoping to line up some meetings in HR when I visit this summer. I'll be touring the Solaris plant in Novigrad up in Istra. I met with the owner from Italy and the plant manager at their factory opening in Mississauga earlier this week.

I'd like to set up some solar farms in Dalmacija and some wind farms in Dalmatinska Zagora. We will see.

Ja isto mislim, to je pravi put!
Dalmacija i Hercegovina su idealne za solarnu energiju!
Zelim vam puno uspjeha!

Probat cemo. Ako Bog da, bice nesto :)

Kuhner is a strange cat. He took a real interest in Croatia for some bizarre reason, I think he tore Sanader a new one a few years back (turned out to be spot on), in an editorial in WT. Not sure what his agenda, is, but Wash Times is a neocon paper, generally favourable to Croatia.

Kuhner is very close to Ivic Pasalic.

From his website:

Prevod na Hrvatskom je na kraju.

KUHNER: NADOLAZECI BALKANSKI RAT
Haaska presuda protiv hrvatskog generala poziva na stvaranje 'Velike Srbije'
By Jeffrey T. Kuhner - Washington Times

Hrvatska je krenula prema jednom drugom ratu. Balkan će opet eksplodirati s nasiljem. To je samo pitanje vremena.A takozvana "međunarodna zajednica" je bila u sredistu potpaljivanja vatre i poticanja sukoba
Nedavno je Međunarodni kazneni sud za bivšu Jugoslaviju (ICTY) sa sjedištem u Haagu, u Nizozemskoj, osudio hrvatskog generala Antu Gotovinu na 24 godina zatvora. ICTY presude su s pravom izazvale ljutnju i prosvjede diljem Hrvatske.
General Gotovina je osuđen zbog "zapovjedne odgovornosti" tijekom vojne akcije u kolovozu 1995, poznatom kao "Oluja", kojom je učinkovito okončan hrvatsko-srpski rat. ICTY navodi da je hrvatski general nadzirao protjerivanje 100.000 Srba i ubojstva stotina civila. Prema sudu za ratne zločine Ujedinjenih naroda, borba za oslobodjenje Hrvatske predstavlja "udruženi zločinački poduhvat."
ICTY-jeva presuda je apsurdna i pretjerana. General Gotovina nije ratni zločinac, nego hrvatski domoljub i heroj pod cijim je zapovjednistvom obnovljena hrvatska teritorijalna cjelovitost. Štoviše, zadao je odlučujući udarac preminulom srpskom diktatoru Slobodanu Miloševiću i njegovom snu o "Velikoj Srbiji".
Od 1991 do 1995, Miloševićeve ubojice harale su u cijeloj regiji. On je iskoristio raspad Jugoslavije - sintetički višenacionalne države – kako bi ostvario svoj cilj tj. stvorio Veliko srpsko carstvo koje bi se protezalo od Dunava do Jadrana. U Hrvatskoj, srpske paravojne postrojbe su pomagane i podržavane od strane JNA te upravljao ratnim razaranjima tokom agresije.
Rezultat: trećina hrvatskog teritorija je okupirano, više od 180.000 Hrvata etnički očišćeno, a gotovo 20.000 civila ubijeno. Milošević je imao za cilj da se ujedine okupirani dijelovi Hrvatske sa gotovo 70 posto teritorija u susjednoj Bosni koje su njegove snage tamo okupirali. To mozemo nazvati stvaranje države kroz genocidnu particiju.
„Oluja“ je zaustavila sve ovo. Vojska generala Gotovine pokrenula je ofenzivu sa američkom pomoci i bila je zapanjujući uspjeh: civilne žrtve su minimizirane, borbe su trajale samo tri dana, i porazeni pobunjeni Srbi su morali potpisati Daytonski mirovni sporazum 1995.
Štoviše, za brojne medije - Washington Times, Wall Street Journal, Newsweek i Jeruzalem Post gen. Gotovina je nevin od bilo kakvih zlocina i kriminalnih radnji i nepravedno je osudjen. On nikada nije osobno naredio ili tolerirao bilo koji zločin. U stvari, ICTY-a tužiteljstvo je jadno po tom pitanju. Nisu uspjeli dokazati da je general Gotovina bio odgovoran za udruzene kriminalne radnje. Razlog je jednostavan: nije odgovoran i zato nema dokaza.
- Istraživanjem akcije Oluja zakljuceno je:
Nalog za evakuaciju srpskog stanovništva iz tzv "Krajine" u zonu okupacije došla iz Beograda nekoliko dana prije početka Oluje. Milošević je, shvativši da je pred vojnim porazom, naredio hrvatskim Srbima evakuaciju u BiH i Kosovo i da tako ostvare svoje osvetničke ciljeve tamo. To je učinjeno prije nego što su hrvatske snage čak i pokrenule svoju vojnu akciju.
Dakle, cijeli kazneni progon,optuznica i presuda protiv gen Gotovine počiva na divovskoj prijevari: evakuacija srpskog stanovništva došlo pod izričitom zapovjedi lokalnim srpskim vlastima iz Beograda. Dakle, hrvatske snage nisu mogli počiniti "etničko čišćenje". ICT -jeva presuda je prijevara.
UN-a sud je politicko vozilo koje teži pružiti povijesnu konačnu presudu o balkanskim ratovima iz 1990-ih. A njegova presuda je jasna: Sve strane su bili krivi za zlodjela, niti jedna stranka, ili nacija , nije više odgovorna od ostalih. To je ono što je Srbija zahtjevala godinama. Trudili su se da pokriju svoju genocidnu odgovornost i nacionalnu sramotu s moralnom ekvivalencijom.
Dakle, presuda protiv gen Gotovine je veliki trijumf za Beograd. Srpski revansisti tvrde da ICTY-jeva presuda omogućava promjenu hrvatskih međunarodnih granica. Predvođeni odvratanim Tomislavom Nikolićem, beogradski nacionalisti su u porastu popularnosti u anketama. Traze obnovu Velike Srbije. ICTY im je pokazao put : Ako je hrvatski rat za neovisnost bio je "udruzeni zločinački poduhvat", onda je cijela država Hrvatska – po toj ludoj logici - utemeljena na ratnim zločinima i etničkom čišćenju.
To je razlog zašto hrvatska vladajuća stranka, HDZ, nije smjela poslati generala Gotovinu u Haag. To je bio preduvjet za zagrebacki ulazak u Europsku uniju sto naglašava kako su bezobzirno i suprotno nacionalnim interesima ubrzavali hrvatsko članstvo u Europskoj uniji. HDZ tvrdi da će pomoći odvjetničkom timu generala Gotovine sa žalbom na presudu. Vec su za dolar kratki a za dan kasne. Haaski kengurski sud nastoji da na hrvatskom generalu napravi primjer. Njegova sudbina je zapečaćena, bez obzira što hrvatska Vlada pokusa učiniti - i HDZ vođe to znaju.
HDZ-ov režim je fundamentalno izdajnički. Nakon što je dobio rat, Zagreb gubi mir. HDZ je izdao generala Gotovinu, branitelje i hrvatsku tesko stecenu neovisnost. Prodao je Hrvatsku u svom ludilu kako bi se dodvorili Bruxellesu. HDZ mora biti poražen i biti pometen u prasinu povijesti i zamijenjen s novom konzervativnom strankom - onom koja će pružiti biračima prave domoljubne-populističke opcije.
Hrvati moraju zahtijevati da Zagreb prekine bezuvjetnu suradnju s Haškim sudom, te povuce svoju ponudu da se pridruži EU, osloboditi generala Gotovinu, sve slučajeve iz Haagu prebaciti na domaće sudove i inzistirati na tome da ICTY zaustavi svoje napade na hrvatski teritorijalni legitimitet. Ukratko, vrijeme je da se Hrvatska postavi na prvo mjesto.
ICTY presude su dali ultranacionalističkim Srbima ono što oni žele: još jedan metak u rascijepljenu Hrvatsku. Vjetrovi rata pušu. Predaja generala Gotovine u Haag bila je ogromna greška.
Jeffrey T. Kuhner je kolumnista u Washington Timesu i predsjednik Edmund Burke Instituta.
Copyright © 2011 The Washington Times, LLC.
prijevod sa engleskog jezika - Ivica Grgic

Makes sense. No one goes that in-depth unless they have some real ties to the country.