Today, September 4, 2012, is election day in Canada's province of Québec. The unpopular and corrupt Liberals are set to lose and possibly finish a historic worst third place. The nationalist Parti Québecois are poised to win the election and possibly finish with the majority of the seats. Because we use the British first-past-the-post electoral system, the PQ could win a majority with as little as 33% of the vote because of splits. If the PQ has a majority, then it is simply a question of when the next referendum on independence will take place.
After winning in 1976, the PQ held a referendum on beginning negotiations in 1980, but only 40% said yes. In 1995, another referendum was held on sovereignty association and the Yes side almost won, getting 49.42%.

I live in Ottawa, the capital of Canada, which is across the river from Quebec.

Would a hypothetical referendum require a 50%+1, and a greater than 50% turnout to pass (if the question was YES/NO to independence of Quebec)?

There is no minimum turnout required.
As for what % is necessary, Quebecois tend to see 50%+1 as the benchmark. But the federal government had the Supreme Court decide that a clear question on the ballot and a clear majority are needed. No one knows what a 'clear majority' would be. It depends on what Canada would decide to accept.

In 1995, since it was going to be so close, the First Nation Cree in northern Quebec, and other natives were buying guns to defend their land and stay within Canada if Quebec separated.

I haven't looked at the ethnic structure of Quebec for some time, but it looks like you can count on 100% of English speakers, first generation immigrants, and Indians (First nations) to be against independence, which means that any split among the French speakers would be fatal for the YES vote.

The Cree in Northern Quebec number around 11,000. Any thoughts on separation would be unConstitutional since any border changes between the provinces require the assent of all 10 provinces (I think the Territories' assent isn't necessary).

If Separation would come about, which it won't, negotiations would take care of the outstanding issues but would leave Canada paralyzed and broken into two as any land corridor between Ontario and the Maritime provinces would run right through French-speaking territory, the Separatiste heartland.

One of Quebec's major sources of income comes from its hydro power in Northern Quebec, which it sells downstream to New England and New York state. The regime definitely wants to protect his lucrative income stream.

Separation has long been a hard sell but they almost pulled it off in 1995. The problem is the changing demographics in Quebec thanks to a low birthrate and a high number of new immigrants who aren't integrated into Quebecois culture, much less its nation. However Quebec still does seek to extract maximal concessions from the Federal Goverment to the point where they are quasi-independent in many affairs. They would like to gain control over immigration into their own province as a next step.

Furthermore, Quebec has been shut out of the Federal Government in terms of representation since the 90s. Also, Canada has become further decentralized with the rise of Alberta and its oil. Common binding institutions have always been weak in Canada, but they've never been weaker than they are now. Canada barely exists in Quebec and Quebec/French-speaking Canada barely registers on the radar in the rest of the country.

At present it's simply a marriage in which the two partners barely speak to one another but because the economy is doing well in relative terms, the incentive to split still doesn't exist.

It's dysfunctional.

The lesson for us to be learned here is how self-rule within a clearly-defined entity protects our interests and how the larger body will be willing to compromise to protect the existence of the whole until that existence becomes impossible.

That is why we need a 3rd Entity.

Wow this was totally not on my radar. My guess is PQ won't push for independence unless they can muster the votes or totally dominate this election. My question is if it does would any of the other provinces follow suit? IIRC there were some separatist movements in other regions of Canada but I don't know what the level of support is for them.

Regarding the Cree and entities I came across this while reading about Quebec.... Maybe they bought off the Cree?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ ... -2012.html

PQ minority government. Pauline Marois is set to become Quebec's first woman premier. Outgoing premier Jean Charest lost his own seat!

Seats (63 needed for majority)
PQ 56
PLQ 48
CAQ 19
QS 2

Vote %
PQ 32.04%
PLQ 30.92%
CAQ 27.20%
QS 6.03%

27.20% = 19 Seats
32.04% = 56 Seats

what a stupid System!

I heard there was some terrorist attack on PQ members? What happened?

Final Results
Seats
PQ 54
PLQ 50
CAQ 19
QS 2

Vote %
PQ 31.94%
PLQ 31.21%
CAQ 27.06%
QS 6.03%

You can see the map of the constituency results here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebecvotes2012/


Yes, there was a gunman who entered the back of the club where the PQ were celebrating and he shot two men. One has died, the other is still in critical condition. The guy then set fire to the building, but it was soon put out. Marois was rushed away from the stage for her own safety.
The gunman was arrested shortly after. He may have been aiming for Marois. He had a rifle and an AK-47.

So it seems that PQ gets it's votes from rural areas of Quebec while PLQ gets most of the urban voters.
Is there any projections about voters demographics like in USA (Republicans do indeed have more kids etc....)? Because if the rural areas in Quebec have good TFR and natality rate than PQ apsolute majority and independence is only a matter of time .

Quebec's population is basically staying the same, only marginally increasing because of immigration. And while the immigrants to Quebec often speak French, they do not share the vision of independence.
In a referendum, the sovereignists would need to get 2/3 of francophones on side for the YES vote to win.

Well then you shoudn't fear that independence will happen.
At least not soon.

I think until PQ and related parties can muster the votes I don't think we'll see Quebec independent. I do share Max's thoughts that they will try and negotiate more concessions from Ottawa to the point where they are quasi independent. At some point after that I imagine independence would be a formality.

For the record I'd hate to see Canada break up.

The term thrown around by Quebecois Nationalists is "Sovereignty-Association" in which they gain maximal autonomy while retaining some benefits from Canada like the dollar, for example.



Personally I don't care either way.

Can anyone give me a precise answer why are First Nation Cree against the independence of Quebec? Is it maybe because their territory will then be splitted in two different countries, not only in different administrative divisions in same country?

Pessimus dux: I have no idea and I decided to look around and why the Cree would want to separate here's what Wikipedia says, and it isn't muc...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sov ... separation

There was a feeling amongst the Cree of Northern Quebec, that should the province separate, they would remain part of Canada, and would force the province to return to its pre-1912 boundaries, and re-establish the Ungava district of the Northwest Territories, or a new territory or province created in its place.

My guesses are that the Cree are probably more anglophone, they probably don't like the fact that they were included in Quebec, the area they live in probably has resources they want to control, and if they can get more autonomy by siding with Canada why not?

This is why I am intrigued by the agreement that Quebec signed with the Cree in July: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ ... -2012.html

It raises the questions "Has Quebec bought off the Cree?" or "Will this be a problem if Quebec declares independence?"

If the agreement gives the Cree a political role in the region and to be a partner in the economic development in the region. It is mentioned here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cree_language that Cree "...is also one of two principal languages of the new regional government of James Bay in Quebec, the other being French." So you could argue that the Cree now have eveything that they want and it would really make no difference to them if Quebec becomes independent or not.

On the other hand you could have a situation where you now have a Cree entity that would be opposed to Quebec's independence and since there is an entity alread in place on the ground, could they demand additional powers from Ottawa if they side with Canada? Could the Cree try to elevate themselves to a territory like Nunavut or try for some kind of province to cement their control of the region?

I guess anything is possible...

I consider they are against the independence for the same reason like immigrants; they are afraid of change. Other national groups enjoy their rights in Canada, and they are scared to lose it when Quebec become an independent country.

This is precisely the case. The past two decades have been very, very kind to natives in Canada and they would fear the loss of rights/privileges that would come with an independent Quebec plus the loss in collective negotiating power that would result from being cut off from the natives remaining in Canada.

In short, they'd be sitting ducks due to their small number and would be an easy target should anyone seek to take away their enshrined status as a First Nation.