The topic of this discussion is central to the existence of this forum and is front and centre on a daily basis. I for one read about it not just here but elsewhere like I'm sure that most of you do as well. What I would like to do here is have an English-language discussion on the topic for those that can't read Croatian but do visit here with the intent that some good material can come out of this to be used online elsewhere to get a Croatian point of view across since we seem to be more often than not drowned out or altogether ignored whenever the media discusses the political stalemate in BiH.

Now, instead of starting with the basics what I would like to do is to discuss the minimalist-median-maximalist goals of BiH Croats and the positives and negatives and probabilities of each position. These are of course entirely subjective, but that's what discussion forums are all about :)

Minimalist
-cultural autonomy within the Federation or within a centralized state devoid of entities

Median
-3rd entity either de facto or de jure carved out of Federation territory or even through land-swaps with RS, the Mostar question and its effects on other cities like Travnik, territorial continuity vs. discontinuity

Maximalist
-secession and annexation by RH (in a SHTF scenario where the state collapses and the global leaders allow for it to fall apart) with respect to what should be secured and what should be left out

I look forward to your input.

Annexation is not the option...

I agree, independent republic of herzeg-bosnia is what most of us want...for multiple reasons.

It is the option, but not fully real.

This goes without saying which is why I used the term SHTF (when the shit hits the fan). All of us here are cognizant of the fact that such a condition at present or in the near future is simply not on the table in light of the present international order that is in place.

Max this is a great idea. Here are some thoughts I have on this...

Minimalist
-cultural autonomy within the Federation or within a centralized state devoid of entities

On paper this sounds like a good option. In theory Croatians would be able to organize schools, media, etc. If it is a centralized state well we might have eliminated an obstacle (the RS) that keeps Croats from returning to their pre-war homes.

Having said this, I do believe there are dangers present with this minimalist plan and that these dangers outweigh the benefits that this plan would have for Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Cultural autonomy does not equate to political autonomy. Minimal for Croats is maximalist for Sarajevo especially if it involves centralizing the government structures of either the Federation or the whole country.

I would even go so far as to argue that out of the three options given this is the one most appealing to Sarajevo and the one that they are trying to implement in their own image right now. We see that with the loophole in the election rules that let non-Croatians elect people like Željko Komšić. Then they can say “look the Croatians have rejected nationalism,” etc and try to have the SDP (and Sarajevo) set the agenda, and not the Croatian people themselves.

I also cite as evidence the recent discussion of a Croatian language television channel. The response out of Sarajevo was something like “they don’t have that many journalists” which basically for us translates into “the Croats are illiterate goat herders living up in the mountains and must nurtured by the highly educated and cultured people of Sarajevo”.

The result of this would be, at least according to Sarajevo should this somehow succeed would be that they would choose the leaders of the Croatian people and try to erode anything that resembles Croatian identity in Bosnia and Herzegovina and then parade around “Bosnian Catholics” for Easter and Christmas and say “see we’re tolerant of everyone”.

Finally, considering that the “highly educated and cultured people of Sarajevo” were dumb enough to get themselves surrounded in the war, to me means that they are not competent enough to run the country, much less to decide what is in the best interest of the Croatian people in the country.


Median
-3rd entity either de facto or de jure carved out of Federation territory or even through land-swaps with RS, the Mostar question and its effects on other cities like Travnik, territorial continuity vs. discontinuity

This is the one I most favor and I favor a model of discontinuity, because it takes into account that Croatians in Bosnia and Herzegovina are not concentrated in one area. The pros with this model are that we can be surgical with what can be a part of it and not worry if it is connected. If land swaps can be made with the Republika Srpska we can get certain areas that we feel are important for the development of the entity, either by the potential for returnees or for strategic value.

- This model works well in other places like Switzerland. Several cantons within the country are not contiguous like the Canton of Solothurn:



- This model works well in Moldova where the ethnic Gagauz people were given a wide range of political autonomy and the territory is not contiguous and is majority Gagauz:



- Finally this concept is not exactly new to Bosnia and Herzegovina either. The Federation is not contiguous, and the Posavina Canton is both separated from the rest of the Federation, and it is made up of two pieces. Technically neither is the Republika Srpska as the Brčko district cuts it into two pieces.



The big issue here is that this plan doesn’t happen in a vacuum and your big issues would be trying to sell it to Sarajevo which wants to be more centralized, and would not like to see any form of Croatian self rule, especially in areas like Soli, Travnik, Kraljeva Sutjeska, etc. Territorial swaps would be a tough sell, but not impossible with the Republika Srpska. I think they would be OK with offloading areas like Stjepan Krst or Komušina, but would be leery of ceding areas of Posavina because it might endanger their aspirations for independence and or if SHTF…

Maximalist
-secession and annexation by RH (in a SHTF scenario where the state collapses and the global leaders allow for it to fall apart) with respect to what should be secured and what should be left out

I think in a SHTF scenario all bets are off. I know what I would do, but I think in this scenario Croatia needs to be mindful of its own security as well. I do think a collapse in Bosnia would impact Croatia as well. I think Croatia's southern flank is a security concern especially if I am correct in thinking that if Montenegro were pulled in the Serbs might make a grab for Boka Kotorska...

Something like this ?

Stop being a hypocrit, ceha! If you are going to fragmentize, Bosniaks will too!

I have no problem with that. New bosniak/muslim municipalities are not economicly viable in existant municipalities with croatian majority. Eastern Mostar could be only exception which in reality confirms the rule.

I thought I would post this because, although the article is unfortunately behind a paywall you can read the comments, which are similar to this discussion.

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article ... a-s-croats

Minimalist: cultural autonomy within the Federation or within a centralized state devoid of entities

This would be the best option in a centralized state with guaranteed minority rights and cultural autonomy. There would be a balance between all constituent peoples since any two constituent groups would make a majority. Additionally, it would allow for better representation of minority communities throughout BiH (such as Croats in central Bosnia, especially in areas where they are no longer the majority). That being said, it is highly unlikely that Republika Srpska will give up their semi-state in favor of a centralized BiH. Furthermore, the plight of Croats within the Federation has been well documented in these forums and with the Croat population declining, there is little reason to believe this will change.

Median: 3rd entity either de facto or de jure carved out of Federation territory or even through land-swaps with RS, the Mostar question and its effects on other cities like Travnik, territorial continuity vs. discontinuity

Realistically, a third Croat entity in BiH is the best option to ensure that Croat rights and culture are preserved. It would allow a more equitable distribution of funds (i.e. more funds generated from Croat areas would be invested in Croat areas) and should reduce (or stop) the exodus of Croats from BiH. If a third entity is established, it should be a discontinuous entity in order to encompass as many Croat areas as possible (thereby ensuring the majority of Croats are represented), however, there should be a minimum size restriction (land or population) for feasibility. Also minority Serb and Bosniak rights must be included (same as Croat rights in non-Croat areas) including separate school boards. On the aside, I still do not understand the protests of separate schools or two schools under one roof. I am Canadian and we have a separate school board in Ontario for French language and for the Catholic faith.

Mostar is a tricky situation, ideally as it stands it should be part of any Croat entity. After 20 years Mostar is still divided and all attempts to unify the city have met fierce opposition (mainly by the SDA). For that reason I would say that in the case of a third entity, Mostar would be divided into West and East as it now stands. Similar practices may lend itself to Travnik and other areas, although, less likely since those are currently unified.

Maximalist: secession and annexation by RH (in a SHTF scenario where the state collapses and the global leaders allow for it to fall apart) with respect to what should be secured and what should be left out

This option would only be possible if BiH dissolves and Republika Srpska either joins Serbia or gains its independence. The Bosniaks would proclaim an Islamic republic of Bosnia and there would be a high probability of fighting between the Serbs and Bosniaks since many areas of Republika Srpska were originally taken by force. The Croats in central Bosnia would not be culturally protected (or at the very least they would no longer be a constituent people) and fighting may be renewed among Croats and Bosniaks. There is also the possibility that Croatia would not recognize or annex Hercegovina and Western Bosnia for political or economic reasons. It would negatively affect most Croats in BiH and likely result in emigration to EU countries in areas that are not annexed.