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GAME 29: Nigeria (Ranked 44th) vs Bosnia (21st)

Nigeria $4.60
Bosnia $1.94
Draw $3.57

Nigeria were held to a 0-0 draw against Iran in their opening match while Bosnia were unlucky to be beaten by Argentina 2-1.

Nigeria (P37/W16/D15/L6) has been competitive in recent matches. They draw a lot of games. In qualifying (P8/W5/D3/L0) they only conceded once in the first half and scored in the second stanza of every match. There recent form (P16/W8/D6/L2) is solid, if not spectacular. They have drawn with Iran, Greece (0-0 of course), Mexico, Ghana and Scotland and suffered a close loss to the USA. Over the recent period their matched have averaged 2.65 goals per game, boosted by some large wins against awful African opponents. If we look at their recent form against sides of some pedigree their matches are averaging a total of 1.40 goals per game. A P15 Index of 0.612 indicates early goals will be most unlikely. Our model has them at $7.14.


Bosnia (P17/W11/D1/L5) and in qualifying (P10/W8/D1/L1) are a good side as their ranking would suggest. They qualified via a group including Greece, Latvia, and Liechtenstein et al; hardly blue chip opposition. They did however qualify in style. Their recent form (P7/3W/0D/4L) has seen indifferent with close losses to USA, Egypt and Argentina (twice) and good wins against Mexico, Ivory Coast and Slovenia. 65% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, but this does include the four qualifying matches against Lativa and Liechtenstein where 24 goals were scored. Remove these games and 50% of games go over 2.5 goals. Digging a bit deeper by removing those games that have 3rd goals after the 80th minute and only 25% of matches have over 2.5 goals. They keep it tight for a long time. Their P15 Index rating of 0.375 is very low, indicating a tight, defensive start to most of their matches. Over the form period they have conceded only four goals in the first half. Their defence, combined with the lack of potency in the Nigerian line up means we rate Bosnia as firm favourites ($1.72). We would have had them as short as $1.55 but have been cautious of the propensity of draws that Nigeria take part in (41%).

The Draw is rated a 28% chance ($3.57).

We think it will be a slow burning match. It will be tight early and over the course of the match Bosnia will gain the ascendancy and win. Nigeria will struggle to score. This leads us to multiple available trades.

TRADING:
1. BACK Bosnia @ $1.90 or above or for the more conservative who want the Draw on side, LAY Nigeria @ $5.00 or less.
2. Back Under 2.5 goals @$1.95 or above. Look to trade out after the anticipated slow start.

BACKING:
1. Bosnia to keep a clean sheet @ $2.66
2. Bosnia to win 1-0 ($9), 2-0 ($10)

Komentar ishlapjelog metuzalema Osima. Ne znam je li ovo samo pohvala Hrvatskoj ili kritika Džeke i napadača BiH:

Sjećam se Nigerije sa SP 1998, čak navijao za njih (nakon Hrvatske), kakva ekipa i milina za gledanje: Babayaro, Kanu, Finidi George, Taribo West, Jay Jay Okocha, Babangida, Amokachi. Ne znam šta im se dogodilo u međuvremenu.

Velik broj novih članaka na upit "why is African football going backwards?"

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jun/21/world-cup-2014-africa-england-brazil

http://www.dailynews.co.zw/articles/2014/06/21/africa-s-embarrassing-2014-wc-reps

http://www.goal.com/en/news/1717/editorial/2013/01/23/3691589/poor-coaching-and-talent-development-is-sending-african-football-

Komentar ishlapjelog metuzalema Osima. Ne znam je li ovo samo pohvala Hrvatskoj ili kritika Džeke i napadača BiH:

Ibišević je po meni predobar da ne igra u prvoj postavi reprezentacije kao što je BiH, nebitno hoće li biti kao drugi napadač ili nešto povučeniji na poziciji koju inače ne igra.

himna nema rijeci.