Ma je li? A što fali Urugvaju?

24th JUNE DAY 13: GAMES 37-40

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We are getting towards the end of the Group stage, which means we are facing some dead rubbers. Subsequently this needs to be factored into any potential trades as winning matches may or may not be the primary goal of the combatants.

BEST TRADES FOR DAY 13

GAME 37: Back Under 2.5 goals @$1.99 or above (hoping for a drift). Look to trade out with a bias to 2nd half goals after the anticipated slow start.

GAME 37: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

GAME 38: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

GAME 39: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

GAME 40: LAY Greece @ $4.00 or less

GAME 40: Back Under 2.5 goals @$1.90 or above (hoping for a drift). Look to trade out with a bias to 2nd half goals after the anticipated slow start.

GAME 40: LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00
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GAME 37: Italy (Ranked 9th) vs Uruguay (7th)

Italy $2.80
Uruguay $2.84
Draw $3.40

Under 2.5 Goals $1.80
Over 2.5 Goals $2.22

Italy needs a draw, Uruguay needs a win; the perfect scenario for Italy. They love to play for draws in knock out matches (and this effectively is one) and this could be the perfect warm up for them as they look to qualify. The H2H form between the two sides reads: Played 9/Italy 2W/4D/Uruguay 3W. They last met in the Confederations Cup last year, Uruguay twice coming from behind to record a 2-2 draw.

Italy (P27/W10/D13/L4) is a big tournament performer. They are very hard to beat as is clearly shown on their form card; the three defeats prior to the 1-0 shock to Costa Rica coming to Spain, Argentina and Brazil. They were unbeaten in qualifying (P10/W7/D3/L0). Perhaps surprisingly their games have averaged almost three goals with almost 60% going over 2.5 goals. There are no clear biases towards first and second half goals. The Italian P15 Index is low at 0.623 meaning that the likelihood of goals in the first 15 minutes is lower than average (a P15 Index of 1.00 is standard).

Uruguay opened their campaign by being smashed by Costa Rica (3-1). They then secured a 2-1 win against England with a late winner. We have not rated Uruguay from the start and opposed them to qualify top of Group D. Nothing much has changed.

Uruguay’s recent record (P31/W15/D9/L7) includes a very wobbly start to qualifying. In more recent times however they have been dominant (P16/W9/D3/L4) with their only losses to Spain twice, Brazil and Costa Rica. 58% of their games go Over 2.5 goals with a strong bias to second half goals.

Much of their attack will again centre on Luis Suarez who did the job on England; he bit the hand that feeds him!! They have good form around Argentina, Spain, France and Japan. Interestingly in their last 16 games they have only scored twice before the 20th minute, scoring the majority of their goals in the latter parts of games. Their P15 Index of 0.667 confirms their propensity for slow starts to matches. Only twice in their last 30 games has there been no goals in the second half.

Based on the common form lines; Italy was more impressive against England than Uruguay and less unimpressive against Costa Rica than Uruguay…we cannot oppose Italy. The fact that Italy only needs a draw will mean they can set up for a tight, low scoring affair as is seen so often in their domestic Serie A league. They will look to frustrate the Uruguayans and with that will come opportunities to break. The chances of a Uruguayan red card will also increase as time passes.

Italy ($2.70) Uruguay ($3.33) Draw ($3.03)

The Match Odds market overrates Uruguay compared to our ratings. Despite both sides having over 58% of games go Over 2.5 goals the perceived dynamics of the match have seen the Under 2.5 goals open up at $1.80. This is a little too short to get involved so we will wait for a drift even though all the analysis indicates that a tight start to the game is likely. We will also look to second half goals as the match opens up to secure some profit.

TRADING:
1. Back Under 2.5 goals @$1.99 or above (hoping for a drift). Look to trade out with a bias to 2nd half goals after the anticipated slow start.

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00






GAME 38: Costa Rica (Ranked 28th) vs England (10th)

Costa Rica $2.70
England $2.78
Draw $3.65

Under 2.5 Goals $2.24
Over 2.5 Goals $1.80

Costa Rica have surprised and qualified. They will probably qualify top of Group D unless they get beaten easily by England and either Uruguay or Italy win very comfortably in the other match. Qualifying first or second is probably inconsequential to Costa Rica as they will be outsiders in the next game regardless. Winning the Group probably avoids Colombia, which should be enough incentive for them to try in this match and not rest too many players. England is going home and the reception they receive at Heathrow will go from icy cold to lukewarm should they manage to win this last Group match.

Costa Rica (P35/W19/D6/L10) started their qualifying campaign strong but spluttered along before the Cup (P13/W6/D2/L5). Losses in the more recent period have included heavy defeats to Chile & Japan, and narrow losses to South Korea, USA & Honduras. Since the Cup started however they have been sublime, mixing good attack with stout defence; a complete form reversal. Over 65% of recent games have finished Under 2.5 goals. Additionally, over the review period they have only once conceded before the 15-minute mark. The P15 Index is 0.857. There is a bias towards second half goals in games involving Costa Rica.

The only thing we have got right about England in this tournament is that they are “the perennial underachiever.” They have disappointed again despite playing some very good football. Their form card (P22/W10/D8/L4) looks solid enough on paper but the fact that two of the losses have come back to back means that for the purposes of this match it can probably be disregarded. Their games are averaging three goals and there is a propensity for the second half to have more goals than the first stanza. They have conceded eight goals over the form period in the first half indicated by a below average P15 Index (0.727). Which England turns up here is the key? It is too hard to ascertain what this game will look like in terms of dynamics and as such it is a low confidence play. For the purposes of our ratings we have assumed that each side will be at their best and be trying. Clearly this is a qualitative factor that no one will know the answer to until kick off.

Costa Rica ($4.60) England ($2.00) Draw ($3.57)

The market has England as odds on favourite. This is clearly based on potential form as opposed to current form. We can’t have them so short, despite the fact that they have played some good football and “should” win. We can only assume that the second half will have some goals as England look to go out with a bang. Small, low confidence play.

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00



GAME 39: Japan (Ranked 46th) vs Colombia (8th)

Japan $3.70
Colombia $2.10
Draw $3.80

Under 2.5 Goals $2.14
Over 2.5 Goals $1.85

Japan need to win and hope Greece does a number on Ivory Coast. Colombia has qualified. A draw here will mean that they qualify top of Group C and play the runner up of Group D (probably Italy or Uruguay, unless England smash Costa Rica). There are some merits in finishing runner up in Group C as that will almost certainly mean a next round match against Costa Rica – a preferred option. Does Colombia get beaten badly so as to avoid Italy or Uruguay? There are many permutations.

Japan has been disappointing in this tournament. The difference between Japan’s best and worst is frustrating. They are technically brilliant and a strong case can be made here. Their form guide reads well (P36/W21/D6/L9). Included in this run have been wins against Italy, Mexico and Belgium and an unlucky draw against Netherlands. They should have beaten Ivory Coast in the first match and joined the long list of teams to draw 0-0 with a 10 man Greece in the second. Notwithstanding the Greece match there has been no shortage of goals scored, with Japan’s games averaging over 3.10 goals per game. Similarly over 60% of games have over 2.5 goals. There has been a second half goal in all but three of their last 36 games. There is a strong bias on their form card for second half goals.

Colombia opened their campaign with a routine win against Greece 3-0, and then followed that up with a solid 2-1 win against Ivory Coast. All things being equal this should be a routine win for them.

The opening two wins have extended Colombia’s recent record to: P25/W15/D6/L4. If we look a little deeper into the form two of the losses were tight affairs against Argentina and Uruguay. In the win column they have the scalps of Uruguay and Belgium whilst also having solid draws with Argentina and Netherlands. Their form is excellent. Importantly, they have only failed to score in five of the recent matches and have kept clean sheets in 12 of those games. They have scored 40 goals and conceded 17. Their games are more prolific in the second half, with the majority of goals scored in that stanza.

Japan ($5.00) Columbia ($1.92) Draw ($3.85)

We cannot oppose Colombia in this match despite the fact that they do not have to win and in reality would probably benefit from a 6-0 loss!! We can’t model these factors so have to go with what we know and amend our trading accordingly. Japan need to win and win well so we can expect them to attack. There should be goal-scoring opportunities at both ends for the full 90 minutes.

TRADING:
1. Back Over 2.5 goals @$1.90 or above. Look for a drift before trading. If there is an early goal then leave the trade alone.

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00


GAME 40: Greece (Ranked 12th) vs Ivory Coast (23rd)

Greece $4.20
Ivory Coast $2.04
Draw $3.60

Under 2.5 Goals $1.84
Over 2.5 Goals $2.16

If Ivory Coast wins, they qualify. If Ivory Coast draws, they have to hope that Japan does not win a by a space against Colombia. If Ivory Coast loses they are going home. Greece needs to win and hope Colombia does not lose to Japan. The dynamics of this match are such that we can trade with more confidence, as a win to both teams is the preferred option.

On face value the recent form of Greece reads well: P20/W11/D6/L3. During this run they have kept 14 clean sheets, scored 21 goals and even with the drubbing by Colombia (3-0) have conceded just 11. Additionally, they have had five 0-0 draws and five 1-0 wins. They are a boring side that struggles to score, but also makes it tough for the opposition. Their matches have averaged 1.60 goals. Almost 80% of their games end below 2.5 goals. If we look at the pedigree of the teams they have met in recent matches it is not great. They scraped through qualification, beating Romania in a play off and since then their best results have been against Portugal, Switzerland and Nigeria, all of which finished 0-0 (of course). They are yet to score at this World Cup but need to find their boots in this match, as only a win will do. Their P15 Index is low at 0.563, which is expected, given their struggles to score and ability to keep it tight.

Ivory Coast (P23/W13/D5/L5) qualified through Africa and has had no problems scoring in recent times, averaging over 2.00 goals per game. During this period 73% of games have gone over 2.5 goals as they have also conceded, on average one goal per game. They are talented & enigmatic, as was shown in the opening match where they were behind for long periods before scoring twice in three minutes. They were a little unlucky against Colombia in the second round 2-1 defeat. There is a strong bias towards second half goals.

Greece will struggle to score but will keep it tight for a long period. They will be happy with a 1-0 win, as goal difference is immaterial to them. Ivory Coast will most likely get through with a draw, but a win makes it certain. Ivory Coast will most likely score at least one goal, making it very tough for Greece. The second half should open up as both sides will chase a win and we can expect some goals.

Greece ($4.17) Ivory Coast ($2.08) Draw ($3.57)

We will keep the draw on side by LAYING Greece at the current quote.

TRADING:
1. LAY GREECE @$4.00 or less
2. Back Under 2.5 goals @$1.90 or above (hoping for a drift). Look to trade out with a bias to 2nd half goals after the anticipated slow start.

BACKING:
1. LAY the HT score in the Correct Score Market if <@$5.00

navijam za Europljane, da ovi koji ostanu pometu konkurenciju i sacuvaju nam 13 mjesta i za Argentinu zbog Messija, iako mi se ostatak ekipe uglavnom gadi.

Italija i Engleska kuci, Urugvaj i Kostarika u osminu finalu, tko bi se na to kladio prije SP?

Definitivno najzanimljivija skupina, a meni se razvoj situacije osobito sviđa

Savezne države Maroka i Tunisa zvane Francuska su stvarno gadljive. Kakvu su nakaradu napravili od svoje nekad ponosne države.

Jeste primjetili da još jedna reprezentacija penzića ide doma. Nije to slučajno.

Moji favoriti su definitivno Njemačka, Nizozemska, SAD, Argentina i Čile, a bilo bi mi drago i da Urugvaj prođe. Jedino čemu se nadam jest da ne ću vidjeti Brazilce, Francuze ili Talijane na postolju.

Ja se nadam da Amerika neće uspjeti i u nogometu. Bili bi nepodnošljivi.

Zapravo me i ovaj napredak doboko pogodio.