Vahid izgleda k'o pravi Alžirac, jedva sam ga prepoznao Pravo dobro su ga asimilirali, izgleda da i on misli; Bosnia is out!

Drago mi je. Još od Eura 2008.g. mi se sviđa njihova igra i simpatizirao sam ih, no na ovom prvenstvu se nisu uopće pokazali. Vahin Alžir zasluženo dalje.

'Gospodin' Chiellini: Kazna za Suareza je pretjerana!

Treba stavit koju marku na Grke kao svjetske prvake dok je kvota dobra

FIFA WORLD CUP
BRAZIL 2014

Before we look at each team that has qualified for the knock out phase and highlight some Futures Trades there are a couple of macro views for this phase of the tournament that will form the basis of the hypotheses we will use to find value trades.

Match Dynamics
Unlike the group stage where a loss is permitted there are no more chances for the vanquished as we reach the knock out stage. Additionally, goal difference is immaterial as we head towards the pointy end of the tournament. This changes the match dynamics considerably. Draws are no longer an option as extra time and penalties come into play to decide who progresses.

Many teams will sit back and look to profit from counter attacking based upon the theory of keeping it 0-0 for as long as possible. The sides that are usually very offensively focused will have to stay patient, seek alternative routes to goal and be very careful not to open themselves up at the back. The sides that are still in the R16 that are best suited to the perceived dynamics of this stage are; Algeria, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Colombia, Greece, Mexico and Switzerland. Brazil and Argentina are noteworthy exclusions from this list as they are principally set up to attack and as was shown in the group stage they can be kept tight for long periods of time and offer little by way of routes to goal (other than their main ones). For success, both these sides will need early goals, as the match then has to open up as their opposition chases the game.

Where we have an offensive side matched against a counter attacking (or defensive) side look for slow starts to these matches, meaning the Under 2.5 goal trade can be a profitable one. Where we have two offensively set up teams (ie. Brazil vs Chile) we can expect an open match to start with.

Regardless of the structure of the side there will be a tendency to sit on a 1-0 lead as opposed to chase hard for the second goal. Additionally, if a side goes 1-0 down early they will tighten up so as to not go two goals behind immediately. This offers nice potential trading opportunities. Should there be an early goal the Under 2.5 goals will drift immediately to $4.00+. Given the game will tighten up thereafter it will be back towards $2.75 within 15 minutes; perfect for a BACK to LAY trade.

Second Half Goals
The warm conditions, the use of replacements and the need to chase goals in the second half will see the games open up after the 65-minute mark. Subsequently, the second half will be where the majority of goals are scored. Laying the Correct Score at the 60-minute mark will be a profitable trade in most instances.


ROUND OF 16 REPORT CARD & FUTURES UPDATE

We are into the knock out phase of the FIFA World Cup. We have tracked every minute of every game thus far, compiling all the key statistics around passing efficiency, possession, attacking and defensive capabilities and weaknesses. We use these to continually update our models. Below we have summarised qualitatively what we have ascertained about each team and how this can be manifested by way of trading strategies.

ALGERIA - $330
Have surprised many by making it through to the last 16. They qualified on the back of a 4-2 win against Korea and a 1-1 draw to Russia in the last match. They were competitive in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium. They are defensively sound but lack the killer punch in attack. They put three past Korea very early in that match. That was a misnomer. Don’t expect them to progress past the next match versus Germany. They will keep it tight but do not create enough chances to pose any threat. They rely too heavily on set pieces for their goals and this will be found out as they come up against sides with better defensive capabilities. Their best chance would be to somehow salvage a draw and win on penalties – highly unlikely though.

Next Match: vs Germany

ARGENTINA - $5.50
Tournament 2nd favourites; will be happy with the offensive side of their game as they head into the knock out phase. The defence is still a big query. Three wins in the Group stage mask the fact that they were lucky against both Bosnia and Iran. In their final match against Nigeria they improved, creating many chances but also being found out at the back. They won 3-2 but were perhaps a little lucky in the end. They are still too reliant on Messi and with Aguero set to miss the next match this will be even more so. Iran tagged Messi and it worked for 94 minutes. Better sides will look to nullify him, and this dries up their other attacking options. They will also need to tighten things up at the back as they start to face sides with better defensive credentials who like to counter attack. To progress to the final they will have to beat Switzerland, Belgium (?), Netherlands/Mexico (?). They have a tough draw and unless they stop the goals they wont be getting too far. Their draw however is more favourable than Brazil’s so if you like a South American team to win the tournament, given their draw they are probably the ones.

Next Match: vs Switzerland

BELGIUM - $24
Got through the Group stage undefeated, scoring four goals, conceding one. Their defence has been excellent, topped off nicely in their last match against Korea where they still won, keeping a clean sheet despite being reduced to 10 men before half time. Importantly, this was with a second string team as they rested the majority of their stars. They will now be fresh for the next stage. Their excellence in defence it yet to be matched in attack – despite clearly having the capability. There is no reason to expect them to start leaking goals; if they can start scoring more &/or finishing the many opportunities that they create they will prove a handful. The match against the USA should pose few problems (won their last two matches against them) for them allowing them to progress to a QF versus either Argentina or Switzerland.

Next Match: vs USA

BRAZIL - $4.20
The tournament favourites (albeit easing) cruised through their Group stage unbeaten, but not the way they were supposed to. It was meant to be a procession. The results masked a few issues, as they were lucky to beat Croatia, were held scoreless against Mexico and were not up against much in their romp over Cameroon. They are yet to click and even though they put four past Cameroon, they still managed to leak a goal and probably should have conceded more. Their path to goal is getting a little predictable and was countered well by Mexico. They will need to be more creative in this facet. Chile, Colombia, France/Germany await if they are to make it to the final. They will need to make the most of their opportunities as each of these teams have been in goal scoring form and as such can be expected to get on the board against them. They play Chile next who will look to attack them down the LHS and will provide a good litmus test to their favouritism. If they are to win the tournament they will have to earn it as the dynamics of this stage of the tournament will test their patience.

Next Match: vs Chile

CHILE - $38
Promised a lot early with good wins against Australia and Spain. They created many chances and looked good both in defence and then attack. In the final group match against Netherlands they were defeated 2-0 in a game that they were trying to win so as to avoid Brazil in the next match. They were found out badly. They are best suited when the opposition takes the match to them (as Australia and Spain did and Brazil will do) but when a team sets up to counter attack them (as did Netherlands) they struggle. They will need to improve offensively before the next match, as it is hard to see them keeping a clean sheet against Brazil. They have drawn and lost via a late goal to Brazil in their last two matches so they are a chance but will need to find the form they showed in their first two group matches. The advantage of playing Brazil is that they will come at them and this will create openings. If they get past Brazil they still have Colombia, France/Germany waiting for them (most likely) so the current quote looks about right.

Next Match: vs Brazil

COLOMBIA - $20
They were undefeated in the group matches and looked strong; scoring nine goals and conceded two. Importantly, they showed the ability to win even when sides set up defensively against them – a rare capability for South American teams who are best when sides come at them, allowing a quick, open match. They were ruthless against Greece in the opener, winning 3-0 (only the second time Greece had three put past them in their last 22 matches) and a second string XI smashed Japan 4-1 in the final group match. They have been very effective attacking, but the most impressive aspect has been in their defence. They have been rock solid, keeping opposition opportunities to a minimum. The potential heat will not be a problem and the removal of Suarez from Uruguay, their next opponents, means they can confidently be looking at a QF against Brazil (or Chile). They will not fear facing South American opponents in the next few matches. James Rodriguez is still a strong chance for the Golden Boot award.

Next Match: vs Uruguay


COSTA RICA - $60
Qualified by beating Uruguay, Italy and settling for a 0-0 draw against England. They have been good, both offensively and defensively and have been rewarded by being matched with Greece in the upcoming R16 match. They have some real pace up front with Joel Campbell being the primary target. There next match against Greece will allow them to dictate the pace of play as Greece will be looking for a 0-0 draw and penalties or at best a 1-0 win. They lack the class to go a long way in the tournament and will not trouble either Mexico or Netherlands if they get through the next match, as we assume.

Next Match: vs Greece

FRANCE - $10
Apart from the final group match, where their second XI was held to a 0-0 draw against Ecuador they have been imperious. They have been scoring goals, creating opportunities, and importantly for a French side they have been frugal in defence conceding just the two goals (when they were already well ahead against the Swiss). The last match against Ecuador was a training run, allowing all members of the squad to get a run. Their first XI will be fit and ready for the next match and we can confidently predict that they will cruise into the QFs where they will face Germany.

Next Match: vs Nigeria

GERMANY - $5.50
Along with France and Netherlands, have been playing the best football in the tournament. They set up qualification with a 4-0 romp against Portugal and followed that with a flat display in drawing 2-2 with Ghana. Their final match was a 1-0 win against the USA but they dominated and could have been out of sight by half time. They have been awesome going forward and have been solid in defence. They are good things to be lining up against France in the QFs and if they win that they will face a South American opponent for the first time in the semi-final (a big bonus). Their key strength, as has been borne out from the statistics is their ability to change their game style at will. They can sit back and counter attack or they can take the game on. This will hold them in good stead as the matches tighten up towards the business end of the tournament.

Next Match: vs Algeria

GREECE - $130
Qualified by scoring a penalty with the last kick of their group match with Ivory Coast. In winning 2-1, they took their goal scoring over the last 10 games to eight. They don’t score many, but importantly, neither do they concede easily. They lack the killer punch up front to progress very deep into the tournament. They would never have thought it possible to draw Costa Rica in the next match and they will believe they are a good chance to get a win, be it by a single goal or through penalties. They are rightfully amongst the outsiders left in the tournament. They are the perfect candidates for the Under 2.5 goal trade.

Next Match: vs Costa Rica

MEXICO - $36
The Mexicans have been excellent so far. If not for some glaring refereeing mistakes in their first match against Cameroon they would have won that match by three of more goals as opposed to 1-0 and possibly could have finished first in the group. They held Brazil to a 0-0 draw and were emphatic in beating Croatia in the final match. Their attacking qualities are sublime; they are quick and their transition statistics are the equal of any other team in the tournament. Their defence has held strong as well, and this makes them a formidable foe, as they have been able to absorb pressure as well as any of the South American sides. It is a pity they are playing Netherlands in the first knock out match as both sides have the credentials to go far in the tournament. They have been competitive against all of the top South American sides over the form period considered and wont fear anyone. The next match is the big one for them as if they can get through that they will face Costa Rica or Greece. A semi-final looms large.

Next Match: vs Netherlands

NETHERLANDS - $9.40
Much has been spoken of their attacking prowess with Robben and Van Persie holding all the headlines. They were unbeaten in the group phase, scoring 10 and conceding three. It is worth noting that the goals they conceded included two penalties and Tim Cahill’s fluke volley. They are very good defensively and this makes them a strong chance to progress in this phase of the tournament. They can keep it tight, and they can score goals on the counter attack. This is a perfect combination for the dynamics of matches that they will face in the next phase. They have drawn Mexico first up and this will be the toughest test. If they get through this match a semi-final is assured.

Next Match: vs Mexico

NIGERIA - $270
Sadly for Africa, they like Algeria are making up the numbers. They are in turmoil in camp; striking over pay etc and that is not the ideal lead up to a match against France. Their defence is not good enough, and nor is their attack. Look for France to get past them with relative ease, in what is one of the mismatches in the R16.

Next Match: vs France

SWITZERLAND - $150
Apart from the aberration against France where they lost 5-2 they have been good so far. There are still some issues in defence but these have been largely offset by their ability to score goals, scoring seven in three games. If they can keep it tight for long periods of the game, and frustrate the opposition they are a decent chance of getting through. The problem they face is that Argentina are first up and unless they have fixed the defensive issues they might be torn apart. Argentina will come at them. They will score against Argentina, but will probably concede as well, meaning a victory will be tough, as is reflected by the odds. If they can get past Argentina, the draw will open up and they are a strong chance to get to the final.

Next Match: vs Argentina

URUGUAY - $55
No Suarez, not Uruguay? They are a difficult team to assess as we can’t quantify the effect Suarez missing will have on them. Regardless, of the short-term future, they cannot win the tournament. They are leaking goals, and without Suarez they lose one of the focal points for their attack. They face Colombia in the first match and that should see them joining Luis back in Montevideo.

Next Match: vs Colombia

USA - $100
Surprised by getting this far. Unfortunately for them this will be the end of the road. They have leaked goals in each match and were lucky not to get thumped by Germany in the final round of the group stage. They only managed a draw against Portugal who was clearly out of sorts. Their only win was against Ghana and that will not provide a strong enough form line to get through. Belgium thumped them last time they met and with Belgium being the fresh team they will be outclassed.

Next Match: vs Belgium

BEST EARLY TRADES FOR THE R16

Match 50: Colombia vs Uruguay
Colombia to win.

Match 52: Costa Rica vs Greece
Under 2.5 goals.

Match 53: France vs Nigeria
France to win. France to keep a clean sheet. Over 2.5 goals.

Match 54: Germany vs Algeria
Germany to win. Germany to keep a clean sheet. Over 2.5 goals.

Match 56: Belgium vs USA
Belgium to win.


FUTURES TRADES

WORLD CUP WINNING REGION
We like the look of the draw for the European sides. Additionally, we like the match dynamics and how these will probably suit them more.

Of the South American sides Brazil and Argentina are understandable favourites. Uruguay will struggle without Luis Suarez and whilst we like Colombia, they are getting into a part of a tournament that they are not familiar with. We are not keen on Chile. The way the draw has fallen means only one of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Colombia can make the semi-final.

Greece and Switzerland cannot win, but Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands can. Additionally, the draw is favourable as three of those four could make the semi-finals.

TRADE: UEFA to win the World Cup @ $2.50




WINNERS MARKET
With the favourites too tight in the market there is an opportunity to trade some other teams. As per our opening Futures Trades we are still in with both Germany and France. We will hold those trades until they meet in the QF. Others to include at this point are:

BACK to LAY COLUMBIA @$20.00

BACK to LAY NETHERLANDS @$12.00

BACK to LAY MEXICO @$36.00 (as insurance for Netherlands)


GOLDEN BOOT AWARD

NEYMAR: SELL
CURRENT PRICE $5.20 LAST PRICE $6.80
Brazil has a very tough draw. They may not make the final and he will need all of these games to win the Golden Boot.

VAN PERSIE: SPECULATIVE BUY
CURRENT PRICE $14.00 LAST PRICE $36.00
If Netherlands can get past Mexico they are almost assured a semi final place. Such a run will give him a few games to score. He is a speculative BUY.

MESSI: BUY
CURRENT PRICE $3.90 LAST PRICE $8.40
He was a BUY on at $8.40. Lock in the profits now.

MUELLER: HOLD
CURRENT PRICE $5.10 LAST PRICE $5.10
He was a BUY at the start of the tournament. Take the profits and run. He will score a couple more goals but the price is gone.

BENZEMA: BUY
CURRENT PRICE $11.00 OPENING PRICE $30.00
An easy opening match against Nigeria. Look for him to score and shorten.

World Cup turns Americans on to football

When President Barack Obama watched the US play Germany in the World Cup, he joined millions of Americans who have displayed a newfound interest in football, raising hopes that a game popular with students and Hispanic communities may finally be gaining nationwide appeal.

“Americans are watching this time around and going, ‘OK, now I get it’,” said Richard Luker, a social psychologist. Not since the 1980 Olympics, when the US ice hockey team beat the Soviet Union in the “Miracle on Ice”, has a national sports team’s progress generated this much enthusiasm, Mr Luker added.

Nearly 25m viewers watched the US’s previous game against Portugal, the country’s highest-ever audience for a televised football match and more than the number who watched the professional basketball finals this month. Although interest in football has peaked at previous World Cups, “these blips just seem to be getting bigger,” said the sports writer Beau Dure.



It is true that certain aspects of the game have taken some acclimatisation for US audiences.

When Portugal scored an equaliser in injury time to make it 2-2, some newer fans questioned why the referee alone could decide how long the game lasts. Others wondered why the US progressed to the knockout stages on Thursday despite losing 1-0 to Germany – going through as the “winningest loser” from conference G, as the spoof twitter account Soccer Guy put it.

“There’s no other American sport where it’s OK to lose,” said Charlie Chappell, a fan watching the game near New York’s financial district. “The haters of soccer will say, ‘this is why we hate the sport’.”

Even so, in absolute terms television audiences have been larger than in the UK, where 18.5m people watched England lose to Uruguay. That has revived hopes that the US might be develop a stronger domestic league, which can attract more star players from Europe and lure domestic viewers away from American football, basketball and baseball.

“I think this might be the launching point,” said bank employee David Elizandro, who became a football fan after spending two years in London.

The World Cup’s success – which has been most pronounced in cosmopolitan cities such as New York and Washington DC – is partly a matter of timing.

For one thing, since the tournament is being held in Brazil they are being played in a convenient timezone. Furthermore, the US domestic basketball and hockey seasons have finished; there are relatively few high-profile US tennis players competing at Wimbledon; and golf’s only superstar, Tiger Woods, is recovering from injury.

“There are not that many other sports on,” said Solomon Rozental, a university student. “What’s on? Baseball?” In fact, this has always been football’s biggest problem in the US. It is not so much that Americans hate or don’t understand it – it is that they love other sports more.

Nearly one-third of Americans consider themselves football fans, a survey by Washington Post-ABC News found. But only 2 per cent of US sports fans say that football is their favourite sport, according to another poll from Harris Interactive.
Millions play the game as youngsters but do not become committed spectators. “It hard watching football on TV because it’s slow – not like hockey,” said Erika Koop, a photographer.

The domestic league, Major League Soccer, now attracts over 18,000 spectators per game but its television audiences have been mediocre. Only 16 US cities have teams so many fans lack a local allegiance. The success of the US national team may benefit viewing of European leagues, where most of the stars play, rather than the MLS.



“The World Cup is the only place where all the fans come together – the Premier League fans, the MLS fans, the Mexican fans,” said Mr Dure.

US brands are also uncertain about how to invest in a sport which, unlike American football, does not offer regular commercial breaks. “Right now there’s probably a lot of advertisers scratching their heads saying, I wish we’d done something around the World Cup,” said Jeff Gagne, a sports expert at media agency Havas Media. “But [soccer advertising] is not the standard model.”

Nonetheless, football does stand to benefit from longer term trends.

The Hispanic population has risen by 1m in the past three years and now accounts for one in six Americans. The growth of the suburban middle class and of college soccer will also propel football’s profile, said Andy Markovits, a professor at the University of Michigan

Americans under the age of 25 are unlikely to remember a time when the country did not have a domestic football league. “It’s a matter of time,” said Mr Markovits. “In 15-20 years, it’ll be on the level of hockey.”

Brazil tu pokazuje svoju lošu igru. Možda budemo uživali u jedanaestercima.

Čileanci zasluženo ispali. Ovako se ne pucaju jedanesterci.

Po meni Brazil zasluženo jer je poništen čisti gol Hulka u 55.