https://syria.liveuamap.com/

na ovom linku imaš sve.

HV je za 84 sata preorao 3 puta veći teritorij, a Turska će puževim korakom taman do nove godine.

Afrinski kanton je malo manji od dvostruke površine općine Gračac (1800km2 naspram 957 km2). HV je u 84 sata oslobodio 10,400 km2 sa tehnikom koja je nemjerljivo lošija od današnje ili tadašnje turske tehnike i uz nepovoljne oklopničke odnose (oklopništvo je bilo otprilike ujednačeno). Dakle HV je u 84 sata oslobodio otprilike 6 puta većeg područja sa daleko boljim obrambenim rasporedom za neprijatelja, ali i sposobnijim neprijateljem (Srbe u vojničkom smislu držim efikasnijima od bilo kojeg bliskoistočnog naroda, uključujući tu i Kurde).

Turci imaju :
1. Apsolutnu dominaciju u zraku sa modernim napadačkim zrakoplovima i helikopterima.
2. Apsolutnu dominaciju u oklopništvu (ne znam jeli Kurdi raspolažu uopće tenkovima u Afrinu, ako da opet se radi o starim sovjetskim tenkovima koje su zaplijenili iz vojarni s početka rata, naspram modernim njemačkim tenkovima Leopardima u turskim rukama)
3. Apsolutnu dominaciju u brojnosti ljudstva. Napada ne samo čitava jedna turska armija već i pobunjeničke proxy grupe uključujući i HTS (zapravo se radi o ogranku Al-Qaide prije znanoj kao Al-Nusra) i sve "umjerene"

Kurdi s druge strane imaju samo volju i donekle obučen časnički i dočasnički kadar. Jedino čime se mogu usporediti donekle sa Turcima je topništvo.

Ovo je po turskim izvorima trenutno stanje (od jutros):


Osvojili su u 5 dana prostor veličine dvije mjesne zajednice.

Zašto? Vrlo vjerojatno isti razlog zašto je Crvena armija gubila ljude i sredstva na početku Barbarose 1941.g. Staljin je počistio sve sposobne kadrove od dočasnika pa naviše i doveo lojalne. Ista stvar koju je i Erdogan napravio nakon pokušaja puča. Operacijom trenutno rukovodi "general" kojeg je on nakon puča imenovao generalom. Taj general je čitav život proveo u žandarmeriji, bez ikakvog vojničkog iskustva ili škole.

Kakav drugi rezultat očekivati?

Pravi problem Erdoganu nastaje ako Kurdi krenu u protuofenzivu širih razmjera duž cijele granice s Turskom što bi se moglo dogoditi jer se čini da Erdoganu Afrin nije dovoljan pa gomila snage i naspram Manbiju, Ras Al Aynu i Qamishlu. Ako pokrene ofenzivu širih razmjera to mu ne će ostati neodgovoreno. U kakvom je trenutno stanju turska vojska ona ne može štititi cijelu granicu te bi se dijelovi turske države mogli naći pod kurskom okupacijom.

Inače ovo je bitno i za naš izborni zakon. Jedina podrška Bakiru dolazi upravo iz Ankare. Ako se Erdoganu zakomplicira situacija kao što se sada to događa on ne će imati snage kojom bi mogao iskazati odlučniju podršku Bakiru. U prijevodu, ako mu se stanje zakomplicira što se sada događa svi turski proxyi sjeverno od Instanbula bivaju pušteni niz vodu.

Pa konačno možda i BiH postane normalna država.

Gradonačelnik Sarajeva hadžija Svraka podržao agresiju Turske na Siriju.
Zanimljivo da je to Muslimani nazvao legalnom antiterorističkom operacijom.
Dobro da znamo kad sutra Hrvatska i Srbija budu provodili antiterorističke akcije u susjedstvu.

UZP protiv muslimana je medal of honor, čuj štete što smo kokali muslimane.

De ti švecki tiću nama reci jel ovo agresija Turske ili šta?

Samo jedan u nizu certifikata profesionalnih kebab removera, s ovim će se tići Hrvati moći ponositi Europljanima kad i sami počnu s čišćenjem islamističkog smeća.
Mi čak imamo i certifikat za razliku od Srba, dakle sljedeći put nek se potrude da dostignu standard profi kebab removera

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump had a long talk with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The telephone call came in the wake of Erdogan’s most recent demonstration of the fact that under his leadership, the Turkish-American alliance has become an empty shell.
Over his 15 years in power, Erdogan has gutted what had been a substantive, mutually beneficial and strategic alliance between the two countries since the dawn of the Cold War.

Last Saturday, Erdogan sent his forces over Turkey’s southern border to invade the Afrin region of Syria. The U.S.-allied Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) have controlled the area, northwest of Aleppo, since 2012.

There are no U.S. forces in Afrin. But the area is predominantly populated by non-Arab minorities, including Yazidis, Armenians, and Kurds — all of whom are pro-American.

The Turks say their objective in “Operation Olive Branch” is to seize a 20-mile wide buffer zone on the Syrian side of their border. That includes the town of Manbij, located a few hundred miles east of Afrin, also controlled by the YPG.

Unlike Afrin, there are many U.S. forces in that city. A contingent of U.S. Special Forces charged with training YPG forces are stationed there. On Tuesday, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu threatened those forces. “Terrorists in Manbij are constantly firing provocation shots,” he said, according to Reuters. “If the United States doesn’t stop this, we will stop this.”

Cavusoglu added, “The future of our relations depends on the step the United States will take next.”

The Turks’ pretext for the Afrin operation is as anti-American as it is anti-Kurdish.

On January 14, Col. Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the U.S.-led military coalition in Baghdad said that the U.S. is training a Kurdish border patrol force in Syria that will eventually number some 30,000 troops. On January 17, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. has no timetable for removing its forces from Syria.

In response, Erdogan vowed to “drown” the border protection force “before it is even born.”

Erdogan then threatened the U.S.

“This is what we have to say to all our allies: Don’t get in between us and terrorist organizations, or we will not be responsible for the unwanted consequences.”

The Trump administration’s immediate response to Turkey’s aggression against its Kurdish allies was deferential, to say the least.

Tillerson disavowed Dillon’s statement, saying the plan to train a border fence was never approved. “That entire situation has been misportrayed, misdescribed. Some people misspoke. We are not creating a border security force at all.”

A senior White House official told the New York Times that senior White House and National Security Council officials had never seriously considered the 30,000-man border force.

These statements are consistent with the U.S.’s general practice for the past 15 years, as Erdogan has gradually transformed Turkey from a Westernized democracy and a core member of NATO into an Islamist tyranny whose values and goals have brought it into alliance with U.S. foes Iran and Russia and into cahoots with Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and ISIS. The U.S. has met ever more extreme behavior from Ankara with a combination of denial and obsequiousness.

For example, the U.S. never sanctioned Turkey for its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The U.S. didn’t penalize Turkey for its effective sponsorship of ISIS. For years, the Turks permitted ISIS to use their territory as its logistical base. ISIS’s foreign recruits entered Syria through Turkey. Its terrorists received medical care in Turkey. Turkey was the main purchaser of oil from ISI- controlled territory and there were repeated allegations that ISIS was receiving arms from Turkey.

And the U.S. turned a blind eye.

While many have expressed alarm over Turkey’s decision to purchase an S-400 surface to air missile system from Moscow, particularly given that Turkey has ordered 100 F-35s, all of which are endangered by the S-400, no U.S. official has taken any steps to expel Turkey from NATO.

The report of Trump’s conversation with Erdogan can be read in several ways. On the one hand, Trump urged Erdogan to “de-escalate” the operation in Afrin. Trump argued that the Turkish operation is harming the broader coalition campaign against ISIS in Syria.

Trump reportedly urged “Turkey to de-escalate, limit its military actions and avoid civilian casualties and increases to displaced persons and refugees,” as well as to “exercise caution and to avoid any actions that might risk conflict between Turkish and American forces.”

On the other hand, Trump was respectful of Turkey’s claim that the U.S.-supported YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey, which Turkey says is a terror group, and which the State Department has listed as a terror group.

The YPG has been the US’s most loyal and effective partner in the battle against ISIS in Syria. The US rejects Turkey’s allegation that the militia is a terror group. Still, Trump reportedly agreed that the PKK is a terror group and the White House’s statement regarding the two men’s conversation said the US seeks “regional stability and combating terrorism in all its forms,” including ISIS, al Qaeda, Iranian-sponsored terrorism and the PKK.

So what was Trump’s message?

Trump’s conversation with Erdogan appeared to be an attempt to bridge the yawning gap between the US’s policy of supporting and working with the Kurds in Syria and its deference for Erdogan and his regime.

The read-out of their conversation also reflected the distinct possibility that the Trump administration is implementing a sophisticated strategy for contending with Erdogan’s Turkey and its open and growing hostility to the US and its allies.

To understand that strategy it is first imperative to understand the present state of Turkey’s military.

While it is true that Turkey’s military is second only to the U.S. in size among NATO allies, the state of the Turkish military is atrocious. As former Pentagon official Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute wrote this week in the Washington Examiner, Erdogan has gutted his armed forces in the wake of the failed military coup against his regime in July 2016.

Forty percent of Turkey’s senior officer corps has been purged. A quarter of Turkish pilots are in prison. Turkey has twice as many F-16s as trained pilots.

Turkey’s performance in combat in Syria has been abysmal, from the very earliest stages of the war. Rubin noted that in 2012 Syrian forces downed a Turkish F-4, and Kurds have downed Turkish helicopters.

Syria has been a prime killing ground for Turkish tanks. Kurds, ISIS and Syrian regime forces have all destroyed Turkish tanks. The Kurds have nabbed Turkish intelligence officers. Turkey’s power projection capabilities are weak.

None of this has escaped the Pentagon’s notice.

Last summer, as the U.S. launched its campaign to oust ISIS from its self-declared capital in Raqqa, Erdogan told the Americans that he would deploy his forces to fight alongside U.S. forces in Raqqa if the U.S. agreed to ditch the Kurdish YPG. The U.S. refused. Washington opted to side with the Kurds.

According to a report in the Washington Examiner, the Pentagon has a low opinion of Turkish capabilities. Turkish troops lack “the training, logistics and weaponry to successfully launch the siege of a fortified and well-defended city.”

On the other hand, the Pentagon assessed that the YPG were up to the task of assaulting and destroying ISIS forces in Raqqa. And as the battle of Raqqa demonstrated, they were right.

Rubin wrote that the Kurds in Afrin may well defeat the Turks.
(LOL ako se zapravo dogodi, koja bruka bi to bila)
So far, the Turks initial push has been unsuccessful.

While the U.S. has consistently treated Erdogan with respect, it has also sought to diminish U.S. dependence on Turkey.

Consider the issue of the NATO airbase at Incirlik, Turkey.

The Turks view Incirlik as their insurance policy. NATO air operations in Syria are coordinated from Incirlik. Most of the anti-ISIS coalition warplanes are based there. So long as NATO is dependent on Incirlik, so the thinking goes, Turkey can behave as abominably as it wishes.

So it was that following the failed coup in July 2016, Erdogan shut down Incirlik and paralyzed the coalition campaign against ISIS.

Erdogan failed to realize that his actions forced NATO allies to reconsider Turkey’s role in the alliance.

The U.S. responded to Erdogan’s move against Incirlik by expanding its air operations in Romania. And last summer, Germany’s Die Welt reported that the German military had identified eight alternatives to Incirlik, including three sites each in Kuwait and Jordan and two in Cyprus.

So while the stated policy of the U.S. towards Turkey is to continue to treat Turkey as an ally, the unstated U.S. policy is to bypass Turkey and render it irrelevant militarily while diminishing its capacity to harm either the U.S. or its allies.

This unstated policy is evidenced by the way the Pentagon responded to Turkey’s invasion of Afrin. Rather than disavow the plan to build a Kurdish border protection force, the Pentagon doubled down, and simply relabled it a “local security force.”

Pentagon and Central Command spokesmen and commanders also praised the Kurds for their key role in the campaign against ISIS.

“Our [Kurdish] partners are still making daily progress and sacrifices, and together we are still finding, targeting and killing ISIS errorists intent on keeping their extremist hold on the region,” Major General James Jarrard, the commander of Special Operations forces in Iraq and Syria, said in a statement.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis, for his part, has been the most outspoken in his criticism of the Turkish operation. Mattis told reporters Tuesday that the Turkish operation helps ISIS and al Qaeda.

It “distracts from the international efforts to ensure the defeat of ISIS. This could be exploited by ISIS and Al-Qaeda obviously, that we’re not staying focused on them right now,” Mattis said.

The U.S. has no interest in an open breach with Turkey. Any such breach will only strengthen Erdogan’s position at home and in the wider region. And given Turkey’s military weakness and the Kurds’ military power, America’s best bet is to keep its head down as Turkey insults it, while supporting the Kurds on the ground as they supplant the Turks as America’s partners in the field.

Rather than express dismay as Turkey moves further and further into the Russian-Iranian camp and away from the U.S., the administration can simply shrug its shoulders and let the chips fall. In this context, it makes sense that the administration did not try to prevent Turkey from purchasing the S-400 anti-aircraft system, which endangers the F-35 program.

Rather than trying to convince Erdogan not to walk out of NATO by rendering his weapons systems incompatible with NATO systems, last November, Assistant Undersecretary of Defense for International Affairs Heidi Grant simply let it be known that Turkey’s decision would have consequences for its planned purchase of 100 F-35s.

Speaking to Defense News, Grant said that the Turks “are a sovereign nation. They can choose to go with other partners. But I have made it very clear that it makes it a little more difficult for our partnership as a coalition because we will not be interoperable. As of right now, our current policies are, we would not be interoperable with Russian equipment.”

Turkey’s invasion of Afrin, like so many of its other actions in recent months and years, make it clear that it can no longer be considered a U.S. ally.

And a close examination of the Trump administration’s actions and statements indicate that not only is the U.S. no longer treating Turkey like an ally. It is also taking steps to neutralize the threat Turkey poses to American interests while cultivating a new alliance with the Kurds that will survive Turkey’s current slide into irrelevance and grow stronger in the coming years.

Caroline Glick is a world-renowned journalist and commentator on the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy, and the author of The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in the Middle East. Read more at www.CarolineGlick.com.

To ima smisla očito dio US administracije podržava Tursku jer ih barem u svemu tome vide kao dio NATO produžene ruke u Siriji koja može biti proturuski balans.
Sad kad su Ameri doživjeli kolaps podržavajući i naoružavajući islamističe grupice koje su preko noći prelazili u redove isila polaže se nade u Turke.

nema ništa od ove ofenzive, izgubili su momentum, ako su ga uopće i imali. prvi dan su digli u zrak sve što su mogli, bombardirali, napadali, a osvojili par seoca, koja su kasnije izgubili. Turci više nisu narod kakav su nekad bili, oni su danas mentalno zapadnjaci, samo je bitan biznis. gdje će Turci motivirati svoju vojsku ili stanovništvo za nekakva osvajanja i to u zemlji koja je 7 godina u ratu, gdje život ne vrijedi ništa i u kojoj su svi dosad preživjeli prekaljeni ratnici.

Turci se nadaju da će SAA ući u Afrin i da se mogu časno povući, sve drugo ih vodi u blamažu.

“Uzvišeni pomozi one koji se na Tvom putu bore kako bi donijeli mir među napaćene muslimane Šama. Bože, zaštiti obespravljene i nemoćne. Zaštiti tamošnje narode od terora i onih skupina koje se ne drže Tvojih propisa. Uzvišeni Allahu Tvoj poslanik Te je molio da nam blagosloviš Šam i govorio nam je da Tvoji meleki svoja krila pružaju nad Šamu. I mi Te iz ove zemlje, koja zna za težinu iskušenja ratom i strahom, molimo da spustiš svoj smiraj na sve ljude Šama. Bože, Ti si jedino utočište, protjeranim, ucviljenim i obesravljenim, pa im budi na pomoći. Bože naš, sačuvaj ovu našu zemlju od svakog zla. Sačuvaj od zla i sve zemlje svijeta. Učini da mir zavlada u srcima ljudi i pomozi našoj braći u Turskoj, Siriji, Palestini i na svakom mjestu”.