Ima li borbe oko Darae? Je li se čeka na predaju ili se ofenziva tek priprema na zadnju veliku neklavu prije Idliba?

Koliko vidim da mapi, nisu pozicije u Darai uopće promijenjene zadnjih mjeseci.

Sirijski Tito opet ih maltretira plinom? Razumljivo, broj žrtava u ofenzivi je značajno manji kada se prethodno unese panika i strah kemijskim napadima i civili se pokupe.

Iako koliko sam čitao većinom koriste klor, koji i nije nešto posebno opasan plin, najčešće nije smrtonosan. Ali dovoljno je to što se čovjek od njega guši, suze mu oči, iritacija kože, svrbež. I najgore od svega - ne znaš kad će sljedeći put opet. Možda dok spavaš.

Bolton is a big fan of WW3 but now he has a personal stake in making sure the meeting happens and produces results

On a gestalt basis it seems to me from all the bits and pieces of information and rumor that DJT is attempting "The Deal of the Century!" (an episode or two of his soon to be award winning series on the subject of "The Greatest President.")

Russian cooperation in this is clearly needed. Trump is blessedly lacking in ideological fervor. His Deplorable base is also a bit short on ideology being focused on wages, prices, taxes and other everyday living issues. Their patriotism expresses itself in devotion to the flag and the anthem and a willingness to serve in the armed forces, something increasingly absent in the "resistance."

Trump has a free hand from his base to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Russia, but he nevertheless must successfully deal with the passion of the neocon wing of the Borg (foreign policy establishment). They still swoon at the thought of the ongoing renewal of the Cold War.

John Bolton is an arch-neocon, a neocon's neocon. Trump has sent him to Moscow to arrange an agenda, date and location for a meeting with Vladimir Putin. IMO this is a stroke of genius. What it does is put an enemy of good US-Russia relations in charge of arranging the schedule for discussions to improve US-Russia relations. In LBJ's vulgarism, Bolton is going to be inside the tent peeing out rather than outside peeing in. Having arranged the meeting, he will be personally invested in its success. How sweet that is!

Trumps is IMO trying for a grand ME bargain to be achieved with Russian help:

1. Peace in Syria in the context of abandonment of regime change. Trump the pragmatist recognizes that the R+6 forces have won the civil war and, therefore he wishes to accept the sunk costs of previous American ineptitude in Syria and to walk away. US Embassy Amman has signaled to the FSA rebels in SW Syria that they should not expect the US to defend them. This is a traditional American stab in the back for guerrilla allies but the warning indicates to me that some group in the US Government (probably the CIA) has enough conscience to want to give warning. As soon as that warning was issued the rate of surrenders to the SAA rose.

2. The US has thus made it clear that the SAA and Russian forces in Syria have a free hand in the SW and it seems that Israeli air and missile attacks are unlikely against the SW offensive. This has been insured through a Russian mandate that Hizbullah and IRGC dominated Shia militias stay out of the fight in Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

3. The Egyptians have been talking to Hamas about their willingness to enter into a hudna (religiously sanctioned truce) with Israel. Hamas has frequently offered this before. Such truces are renewable and are often for 10 years. Kushner's team thinks it has attained Natanyahhu's support for this. The deal would supposedly include; a Gaza-Egyptian industrial zone in the area of Raffa, an airport, a seaport. In return Hamas would be expected to police the truce from their side of the border. People on SST who have deep access in Israel doubt the sincerity of apparent Israeli assent, but there is little doubt I think that DJT considers this part of the Grand Bargain he is attempting to forge.

Nowhere in any of this is anything concerning Iran and I assume that regime change remains the policy. Nor is there anything about Saudi Arabia and the UAE's mercenary manned war in Yemen. Ah, well, pilgrims, everything in its time.

Predali se islamisti na jugu Sirije. Zeleni busevi jure prepuni kozojebaca.

Ostali su još samo jadni ostaci ostataka koji su možda u momentu ovog pisanja već pali.

Assad je sada mnogo rasterećeniji i može povući mnogo više snaga na zadnji bastion islamista - Idlib.

Ovaj crni dio se neće predati.

Zapamtite ovo što vam kažem. Sve to religioznih manijaka koji su završili u Idlib provinciji ubijati će ljude u Turskoj i tamo praviti terorističke napade. I to serijski i masovno.
Jer ti majmuni nered prave tamo gdje mogu, ne gdje žele.

Ovaj crni dio se neće predati.

A sto sprjecava Sirijce da na prvim postenim izborima izaberu ove zelene?

Teoretski ništa.

Pa ako izgubi izbore i mirno preda vlast, ne verujem da ce se to desiti. Najviše zbog nove vlasti koja to nece dozvoliti zbog legitimiteta i zbog uspostave tradicije da se to sutra i njima ne desi.

Po meni su diktature (tj prosvećeni apsolutizam) najbolji izbor za sve, ali to je samo moje mišljenje.

Što se tiče "njihovog stanja svesti", u Iraku su pre par meseci bili izbori, pobedio je Moktada Al Sadr i vlast je prenešena sasvim mirno. Dosuše, Irak ima mnogo homogenije stanovništvo od Sirije. Ali mislim da, ako Bešar izgubi (a to mi nije previše verovatno, s obzirom da su većinu pobunjenika činili stranci), i mirno prihvati poraz, ništa mu se neće desiti jer će svih pet članica Saveta bezbednosti jasno poručiti da ne prave pokolje jer će snositi žestoke posledice. A i kao što rekoh, to se ne isplati eventualnim zelenim pobednicima i zato što rizikuju da i oni prođu tako u budućnosti.

I tvrdnja da Arapi nisu zreli za demokratiju je malo rasistička. Mi smo kao bili zreli 1990., pa gledaj šta smo napravili.

The collapse of the Turkish Lira is also affecting opposition held Syria.

I just got a message from a source in Euphrates Shield area saying that people there are worried since rebels and civil servants get paid in Turkish Lira.

@realDonaldTrump
12h12 hours ago
The United States has ended the ridiculous 230 Million Dollar yearly development payment to Syria. Saudi Arabia and other rich countries in the Middle East will start making payments instead of the U.S. I want to develop the U.S., our military and countries that help us!