Ja sam napravio ovakav scenarij u glavi.

Za republikanskog kandidata biti će izabran netko umjeren, na koga republikanci računaju da može odnijeti velik broj glasova kod neodlučnih, pa i od demokrata. To je vjerojatno Jeb Bush ili John Kasich. Iako je Donald Trump vrlo popularan, smatram da on nikako ne može biti republikanski kandidat, jer će osigurati isključivo glasove 'desnice'. Nakon što Bush ili Kasich budu izabrani kao republikanski kandidat, Trump, koji je snažan igrač i poduzetnik, će voditi neovisnu predsjedničku utrku.

Trump će republikancima oduzeti 'sigurne' glasove 'desnice', i olakšati demokratskom kandidatu izbornu pobjedu. Vjerojatno će se radit o Hillary Clinton.

Ne staje to samo na tome, Donald je i jedan od većih donatora Hilarine kampanje.

Ne staje to samo na tome, Donald je i jedan od većih donatora Hilarine kampanje.

Mislim da je ovo nemoguć scenarij. Nešto tako očito bi mogao uraditi samo idiot.
Shvaćam poantu i argumenti su tu, prognoza je fina. No, jednostavno bi na taj način napravio stotine milijuna budala.
Nije to način na koji ovo funkcionira, iako sigurno postoji neka matrica koju dosad nitko nije odgonetnuo, bar ovdje na forumu.

Hillary Rodham Clinton, seeking to halt the momentum of her insurgent challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, aggressively questioned his values, positions and voting history Tuesday night in the first Democratic presidential debate, turning a showdown that had been expected to scrutinize her character into a forceful critique of his record.

In a series of sometimes biting exchanges, Mrs. Clinton declared that Mr. Sanders was mistaken in his handling of crucial votes on gun control and misguided in his grasp of the essentialness of capitalism to the American identity. Mocking Mr. Sanders’s admiration for the health care system of Denmark, she interrupted a moderator to offer a stinging assessment of his logic, suggesting he was unprepared to grapple with the realities of governing a superpower.

“We are not Denmark,” Mrs. Clinton said, adding with a sly smile, “I love Denmark. We are the United States of America.”
The crowd erupted in applause.

A few moments later, Mrs. Clinton took aim at what may be Mr. Sanders’s greatest vulnerability with the Democratic left, asking why he had voted to shield gun makers and dealers from liability lawsuits. Mr. Sanders, who linked his record on gun control to his representation of a rural state, called the bill “large and complicated.”

“I was in the Senate at the same time,” Mrs. Clinton replied. “It wasn’t that complicated to me. It was pretty straightforward.”

Asked if Mr. Sanders had been tough enough on guns during his decades-long career in Congress, Mrs. Clinton offered a sharp reply: “No. Not at all.”

“I think that we have to look at the fact that we lose 90 people a day from gun violence,” she said. “This has gone on too long, and it’s time the entire country stood up against the N.R.A.”

It was a dominant performance that showcased Mrs. Clinton’s political arsenal: a long record of appearances in presidential debates, intense and diligent preparation, and a nimbleness and humor largely lacking in her male counterparts. She let no opportunity pass her by. When Mr. Sanders described the conflict in Syria as “a quagmire within a quagmire” but said he did not support sending American ground troops there, Mrs. Clinton interjected energetically: “Nobody does. Nobody does, Senator Sanders.”

For Mr. Sanders, the gathering in Las Vegas provided an evening of unexpectedly forceful challenges, both from Mrs. Clinton and from the moderator, Anderson Cooper of CNN. At times, he seemed somewhat exasperated and unsure about how to match Mrs. Clinton’s agility. Perhaps his most memorable moment occurred when he zestfully defended Mrs. Clinton from criticism of her email practices.

“Let me say something that may not be great politics,” he said. “But I think the secretary is right, and that is that the American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails.”

Mrs. Clinton flashed a wide smile and shook her rival’s hand. “Thank you, Bernie,” she said, setting off huge applause in the auditorium.

Mr. Sanders regained his footing when the debate turned to one of his signature issues: Wall Street and its excesses.

Mrs. Clinton said that her plan to crack down on wrongdoers on Wall Street “would have the potential of actually sending the executives to jail,” but that Mr. Sanders’s proposal to break up banks was naïve. Mr. Sanders grew animated.

“Congress does not regulate Wall Street,” he said, setting off roars from the crowd. “Wall Street regulates Congress.”

He suggested that the real naïveté was Mrs. Clinton’s notion that reaching out to Wall Street was part of the solution. “ ‘Please do the right thing,’ ” he said, “is kind of naïve.”

And there were reminders of the tendencies that have made the left wing of the Democratic party suspicious of Mrs. Clinton. Prodded about her history of changing positions on major issues, she inelegantly explained why it took her so long to come out against the proposed Canadian American oil pipeline that so many of her rivals already oppose. “I never took a position on Keystone until I took a position on Keystone.”

Mrs. Clinton benefited for much of the night from the tentativeness of her rivals, who appeared wary of directly attacking the figure who represents their party’s best chance at electing a woman president. Instead, they offered oblique criticisms and diplomatic dismissals. In his opening statement, Lincoln Chafee, the former senator and governor of Rhode Island, told the audience: “What I’m most proud of is that, in 30 years of public service, I have had no scandals. I have high ethical standards.”

Jim Webb, the former senator from Virginia, seemed to take a swipe at Mrs. Clinton’s decades in public life and her closeness to Democratic Party insiders, saying the country was looking for somebody “who understands how the system works, who has not been co-opted by it.”

There were exceptions, of course. Former Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, when asked whether Mrs. Clinton would be too quick to use American military force, scolded her for her 2002 Senate vote to authorize military action in Iraq, saying the vote had been carried out “under false pretenses” and calling the war “one of the worst blunders in modern American history.”

Srećom, Trump se ovaj tjedan vratio na čelo. Iako tako ne izgleda, ovaj Carson je jako opasan lik, ultrakonzervativan sektaš koji recimo smatra da je planirano roditeljstvo usmjereno protiv Crnaca, da je problematično što su Kinezi orodali džipove Assadu, koji bi zabranio pobačaj i vjerojatno homoseksualizam, vjeruje u biblijsku sliku stvaranja svijeta i ona Markanova apokaliptična sranja o Izraelu. Osvojio Bible belt svojom "pristojnošću" no kada liberalni mediji smetnu s uma činjenocu da je Crnac ide na dno.

Koliko je GOP multirasniji u ovim predizborima, fascinantno

Srećom, Trump se ovaj tjedan vratio na čelo. Iako tako ne izgleda, ovaj Carson je jako opasan lik, ultrakonzervativan sektaš koji recimo smatra da je planirano roditeljstvo usmjereno protiv Crnaca, da je problematično što su Kinezi orodali džipove Assadu, koji bi zabranio pobačaj i vjerojatno homoseksualizam, vjeruje u biblijsku sliku stvaranja svijeta i ona Markanova apokaliptična sranja o Izraelu. Osvojio Bible belt svojom "pristojnošću" no kada liberalni mediji smetnu s uma činjenocu da je Crnac ide na dno.

Držeći govor u Nešvilu, on je izjavio da ne vjeruje u evoluciju.

“Kažu mi: ‘Karsone, kako možeš da budeš kirurg, neurokirutg i da vjeruješ u to da je Bog stvorio Zemlju, a ne vjeruješ u evoluciju, koja je osnova svih znanja i nauke ’”, rekao je kandidat.

“Znate, to je na neki način smiješno. Vjerujem da nas je Bog stvorio i nisam zbog toga imao nikakvih problema. Što više poznajete Boga i što imate dublju vezu s Njim, znanje o tome kako stvari funkcionišu, uključujući i ljudsko tijelo postaje sve jasnije”.

Ipak, zašto Karson, ljekar, ne vjeruje u evoluciju? Evo nekoliko citata iz njegovog govora koji daju odgovor na to pitanje:

“Priznajem da se promjene u okviru neke vrste dešavaju. Međutim, da li je to znak evolucije, ili znak postojanja inteligentnog tvorca koji je stvorenjima dao sposobnost adaptiranja okruženju, kako ne bi morao da počinje ispočetka na svakih 50 godina? Znate, to zvuči inteligentnije, od bilo čega drugog”.

***

“Niko nikad nije demonstrirao kako se jedna vrsta menja u drugu. Teorija evolucije, ako je točna, podrazumijeva kontinuirano evoluiranje. Dakle, mi bismo morali da nađemo prijelazne vrste u nekom trenutku”.

***

“Darvin je rekao da njegova kompletna teorija ovisi od fosilnih ostataka. On je rekao da bismo mogli da poredamo sve fosile – od jednoćelijskih vrsta do čovjeka – u liniju dugačku nekoliko kilometara i samo prolazimo tom stazom fosila, kako bismo vidjeli kako je sve evoluiralo. On je rekao da je jedini razlog zbog kog još nemamo sve te fosile, nedostatak geološke opreme, ali da ćemo do njih moći da dođemo u narednih 50 ili 100 godina. Evo, to je bilo prije 150 godina. Još ih nismo našli. Gdje su? Gdje su fosilni ostaci?”

***

“Kad pitate evolucionistu o tome, on vam kaže: ‘Ne znam gdje su. Negdje su sigurno, samo ih još nismo našli’. To je bijedan izgovor”.

Karson je inače nedavno izjavio da smatra da je piramide u Egiptu napravio biblijski lik prorok Josip i to kao neku vrstu ambara.

Srećom, Trump se ovaj tjedan vratio na čelo. Iako tako ne izgleda, ovaj Carson je jako opasan lik, ultrakonzervativan sektaš koji recimo smatra da je planirano roditeljstvo usmjereno protiv Crnaca, da je problematično što su Kinezi orodali džipove Assadu, koji bi zabranio pobačaj i vjerojatno homoseksualizam, vjeruje u biblijsku sliku stvaranja svijeta i ona Markanova apokaliptična sranja o Izraelu. Osvojio Bible belt svojom "pristojnošću" no kada liberalni mediji smetnu s uma činjenocu da je Crnac ide na dno.

"In the class of 1968 at Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow, Mahmoud Abbas was one of the members of that class, and so was Ali Khamenei. And that's where they first established relationships with the young Vladimir Putin."

Izjava Bena Carsona. Vjerojatno vjeruje u neku zavjeru protiv Izraela od strane Rusa, Iranaca i Palestinaca. Uz to je i izrazito anti-kineski raspoložen. Bilo tko tko dolazi iz miljea nedominantnog protestantizma ima čudne ideje vezane uz Izrael i nastavio bi lizati šupak SA ako bi mu Bibi to napomenuo. Ne mislim da treba napustiti Izrael, no evangelisti su bolesno opsjednuti istim. Dobro je rekla jedna konzervativna novinarka u SAD-u, zašto se GOP toliko bavi Židovima i pozicijom prema Izraelu kada oni čine jebenih 2 posto populacije i ne glasaju za njih. Realno, ove izbore GOP može dobiti jer crnci neće žuriti na birališta zbog Hillary, a kombinacija Rubio-Kasich bi čak privukla centraše i Latinose.

Democrats See Rubio and Kasich as 2016 Threats
By Hope Yen & Stephen Ohlemacher
November 15, 2015
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bring on Donald Trump, and Ben Carson, too.

That's what Democratic insiders are saying about the Republican outsiders who sit solidly atop preference polls in the race for the GOP nomination for president.


They are far more worried about GOP candidates who have experience in office, with Marco Rubio cited most often as the strongest potential competition for their overwhelming choice for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"As a Democrat, I'd love to see a Trump-Carson ticket," said Bob Mulholland, a member of the Democratic National Committee from California. "We'd probably win back the Senate and pick up the House as well."

The Associated Press contacted all 712 superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention next summer, and asked them which Republican they thought would be their party's strongest opponent in the general election.

Offering a window into how the Democratic establishment is sizing up the competition, most superdelegates declined to name a candidate, expressing bewilderment at a Republican field in which billionaire Trump and retired neurosurgeon Carson are leading in polls while Jeb Bush, the son and brother of presidents, struggles.

Of the 176 superdelegates who answered the question, 65 said Rubio, the first-term senator from Florida, would be the Democrats' strongest opponent.

"Rubio speaks well and he could generate appeal among Latino voters," said Chris Wicker, vice chairman of the Nevada Democratic Party, referring to Rubio's background as a Cuban-American raised by working-class parents. "He doesn't say some of the crazy stuff that the other leaders have said."

The other candidates, along with the number of Democratic insiders who said they would be the strongest opponent:

Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 45.

Bush: 36.

Trump: 16.

Carson: 4.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 4.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 2.

Businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former New York Gov. George Pataki each got a vote. So did Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the race, and Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee.

Democratic superdelegates can support the candidate of their choice at the party's summer national convention, regardless of whom voters choose in the primaries and caucuses. They are members of Congress and other elected officials, party leaders and members of the Democratic National Committee.

They are the ultimate party insiders. With 712 votes at the convention, superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.

Rubio, 44, has done well in preference polls lately, but he still lags behind Trump and Carson. Some Democratic insiders worry that Rubio's candidacy could resonate in the general election, particularly among non-white and young voters who helped propel Democrat Barack Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012.

"I think Rubio would give us a tough time," conceded Cecil Benjamin, state Democratic chairman of the Virgin Islands.

In an interview, Rubio played down his status among Democratic insiders.

"You never know what these people are thinking when they say these things to reporters," Rubio said. "I do believe, and I've believed this through this campaign, that if I'm our nominee, we're going to be viewed as the party of the future and the Democrats are going to be viewed as the party of the past."

In the AP survey, many Democrats were dismissive of Trump. Some said his sharp rhetoric on issues like immigration, which is playing well among some Republican primary voters, won't fly in a general election.

"He's a loose cannon," Missouri superdelegate Sandra Querry said of Trump.

"Like everybody else in America," Georgia Democrat Dan Halpern said, he's "just wondering when the wind is going to come out from under the sails of both Carson and Trump."

In the last GOP presidential debate, Bush criticized Trump's call for mass deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally, calling it an impractical plan that would benefit Democrats with Hispanic voters.

"They're doing high-fives in the Clinton campaign right now when they hear this," Bush said.

Indeed, Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon responded to the exchange by tweeting: "We actually are doing high-fives right now."

The Clinton campaign said it had no comment on the strength of individual GOP candidates, saying they were all equally "out of touch" with voters.

About one-fifth of Democratic superdelegates who answered the survey said they believe Bush, who is fighting to stem a slide in GOP polls, could bounce back and pose a threat to Clinton, given his name recognition and early fundraising.

Even more superdelegates praised Kasich, a two-term Ohio governor who served 18 years in the House. Some Democrats described Kasich as the "adult" in the field who could campaign from the center and win his home state, a key battleground.

The last candidate to win the White House without Ohio was Democrat John F. Kennedy in 1960.

"A Democratic nightmare would begin and end with a Rubio-Kasich ticket," said former state Rep. Boyd Brown of South Carolina.

The AP results come as Clinton is solidifying her support among the superdelegates. More than two months before the first primaries and caucuses, Clinton has public endorsements from 359 superdelegates, while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has 8 and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has 2.

A few Clinton supporters warned against dismissing Trump too quickly, given today's political climate.

Joe Rugola, a labor union leader in Ohio, said Trump and Carson might be written off in a normal political year, but "I don't think there's anything normal about politics in America right now."

Donald Trump has hit a new milestone in national polling, garnering 41% of the Republican vote in a new national poll.

Trump is at 41% in a Monmouth University poll out Monday, holding a wide advantage over his GOP challengers. His support was up from 28% in October.

In second was the rising Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, at 14%; followed by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, at 10%. Ben Carson was at 9%, down 9 points from October, and all other candidates were in the low single digits.

Cruz and Rubio both were up 4 points since October's poll, a shift within the poll's margin of sampling error.

The candidates are heading into their next Republican debate on Tuesday in Las Vegas, hosted by CNN.

Trump has led in nearly every national poll for months, though his solid lead in the key early state of Iowa is being threatened by Cruz -- who recently topped Trump in an Iowa poll out this weekend.

Monmouth surveyed 385 Republican and Republican-leaning voters by telephone from December 10-13 for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points