Junker odbio razgovarati sa Ciprasom

Predsjednik Europske komisije Jean-Klod Junker odbio je da razgovara telefonom sa grčkim premijerom Aleksisom Ciprasom zbog konstatacije da nema napretka u pregovorima o dugu Atene, izjavio je dužnosnik blizak Europskoj komisiji.

“Grčki premijer je prije podne tražio da telefonom razgovora sa predsjednikom Europske komisije, ali je Junker odbio, jer nema napretka u pregovorima i s obzirom da prijedlozi, koje je grčka strana obećala da će ispuniti, nisu realizirani “, izjavio je neimenovani dužnosnik.

On je dodao da je Junker rekao da nema napretka, dakle nema o čemu da se razgovara, prenio je AFP.

It is the current doomsday scenario for Europe.

Greece’s bailout talks break down for good, and the country defaults. The European authorities sever life support to Greece’s banking sector, forcing the country to take drastic steps to stem an exodus of capital. Greece decides to drop the euro as its currency.

Greece’s unwinding sends shock waves through the global markets. Investors and policy makers have to quickly assess whether the storm is going to pass or gather strength.

While Europe is better positioned to deal with a crisis than it was a few years ago, when Greece last teetered, there is simply no precedent for a country’s leaving the eurozone. And the big test may be only weeks away.

Relations between Greece and its lenders have descended into a bitter standoff, with country’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, saying on Tuesday that its creditors “want to humiliate the Greek people.” The impasse is increasing the chances that Greece and its creditors will fail to forge a deal by the end of the month, when a pile of debt comes due and its current bailout expires.

Many in Europe still believe that some sort of agreement will be reached at the last minute, unlocking fresh aid for the debt-burdened country and preventing a painful default.

But the war of words — and the apparent distance between both sides’ positions — is reducing hopes for a breakthrough. Instead, global financial firms and policy makers are asking what else might break down if Greece pulls out of the eurozone.

Many analysts agree that a Greek shock, for a few days, would stoke the sort of confusion and fear that prompts investors to pare back holdings of riskier stocks and bonds and instead pile into assets they see as havens. “U.S. Treasuries will explode in price as people flee to safety there,” said John M. De Clue, a chief investment officer at U.S. Bank. “It will be the largest risk-off trade that we’ve seen in some time.”

But there is less agreement over how bad things might then get.
Optimistic analysts contend that markets would soon steady themselves after the initial shock of Greece’s crashing out of the euro. Much has changed, they say, since 2011 and 2012, when Greece’s problems spilled over into other countries.

Back then, the fears surrounding Greece’s debt load caused the government bonds of countries like Italy and Spain to plunge in value and helped push the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 2,000 points in a few months. Europe’s problems even contributed to the crash of MF Global, a United States financial firm.

“It is more manageable now,” said Frank Oland Hansen, chief strategist at Danske Bank’s private bank. “I am not so concerned that we will have major contagion through the bond market.”

There are grounds for such confidence.

Private investors and banks no longer have large holdings of Greek government debt, meaning their losses would be minimal if the country defaulted. Instead, Greece’s debt is now mostly owed to other governments and official entities.

Analysts also point out that in comparison with 2011, Europe’s banks are on steadier ground, after the regulatory stress tests of last year and efforts to bolster their capital. In their stronger state, the banks are more likely to keep lending through the sort of stress that might follow an event like a Greek default.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the last Greek crisis and now is the stance of the European Central Bank. It has a huge bond-buying program in place that appears to be stimulating growth across the Continent. Mario Draghi, the central bank’s president, suggested on Monday that it was ready to step in if declines in bond prices were undermining its stimulus efforts.

GRČKE banke su pred kolapsom nakon što je jučerašnji sastanak ministara financija eurozone prošao bez dogovora.

Zbog ekonomske nesigurnosti i straha od uvođenja nove valute, Grci masovno povlače novac iz banaka.

"Ekstremna ekonomska neisgurnost u kombinaciji sa strahom od promjene valute potaknula je povlačenje novca neočekivanih razmjera, te je u samo četiri dana iz banaka otišlo oko tri milijarde eura", kaže Nicholas Economides, profesor ekonomije sa Sveučilišta u New Yorku.

Pesimističan je i predsjednik Eurogrupe i nizozemski ministar financija Jeroen Dijsselbloem, koji je na pitanje može li zamisliti da Grčka napusti euro odgovorio: "Kako sada stvari stoje, idemo u tom smjeru."

Europska središnja banka održat će danas izvanredni sastanak na kojem će biti razmotren zahtjev grčke središnje banke za povećanje pomoći kojom bi se održala likvidnost bankovnog sustava, doznaje Bloomberg iz neimenovanih izvora.

Ako napuste euro slijedi snažan pad gospodarstva

Prema prognozama ekonomista Saxo Banke nakon napuštanja monetarne unije, Grčka bi mogla uvesti monetarnu devaluaciju između 50 i 70 posto te bi uslijedila teška recesija. Nakon sličnih događaja, Argentina je imala recesiju od 11 posto i izvjesno je očekivati slične brojke i u Grčkoj.

"Suprotno razmišljanjima podržavatelja Grexita, monetarna devaluacija je samo iluzija i neće omogućiti poboljšanje konkurentnosti. Devaluacija bi eventualno bila učinkovita da slika grčkog dugovanja nije zasnovana na deficitu. Uvoz je primjerice tri puta veći od izvoza. U tom kontekstu, devaluacija je samo simbol umiruće ekonomije i samo može dovesti do humanitarne krize koju nismo svjedočili još od 1945. godine u Europi", smatraju u Saxo Banci.

Problem je i što sudeći prema anketama - Grci nisu skloni prihvaćanju nove valute. Najgori scenarij dugoročno je sigurno situacija s većim brojem valuta u opticaju, a što je također moguća situacija s obzirom da je oko 100 milijardi eura povučeno iz banaka od kraja 2009. i stanovnici ih drže 'u čarapama'. Isto kao i u Argentini ili Venecueli, moglo bi se razviti crno tržište valuta. Grci će se sigurno prikloniti euru kao jakoj valuti i nastojat će što manje posjedovati hipotetsku novu valutu, što će opet dovesti do 'eurizacije' gospodarstva, procjenjuje Saxo Banka

But although Germany will have to write down huge losses in absolute terms in the event of Grexit, the country will not be among the biggest losers.

Fellow eurozone countries like Slovenia, Malta, Spain, Italy and Estonia face losses amounting to some 2.8 to 3 percent of their respective economic output, according to Bloomberg. The analysts estimate this to be 2.37 percent of GDP in the case of Germany.

Even if Greece fails to make a payment to the International Monetary Fund due at the end of June, ratings firms likely won’t describe the country as “in default.”

And, if Greece tells the market it intends to honor all privately-held debt, but not the 72 % held by the IMF, ECB and eurozone governments, the value of its bonds might appreciate—even if the country is forced out of the euro, said Tom Elliott, international investment strategist at deVere Group.

“While treating creditors of the same bonds differently raises legal problems, it will [prevent] Greece [from] being labelled as ‘in default’ by some of the credit agencies, such as Standard and Poor’s, who only look at the risk of default on privately-held debt in their calculations,” Elliott said in a note to clients published over the weekend.

Greece is scheduled to repay €1.54 billion ($1.8 billion) in debt service to the IMF on June 30.

A representative for Standard & Poor’s confirmed that missing the payment to the IMF wouldn't trigger a ratings downgrade to “selective default.”

“The Greek government has repeatedly committed itself to excluding private-sector creditors from any further debt reprofiling,” a representative for Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said in an email.

Earlier in June, S&P lowered Greece’s long-term credit further into junk territory, cutting its rating one notch to “CCC” from “CCC+,” saying that the country could default on its commercially held debt during the next 12 months if Greece and its creditors can’t agree on a deal.

Greece’s private creditors accepted a ”haircut” in March 2012 which swapped existing commercially-held Greek bonds for new ones with lower interest rates and longer maturities. Losses on the new bonds amounted to about 50 %.

On Monday, investors in Greek debt were optimistic that a deal might soon be reached, pushing the yield on its 10-year TMBMKDE-10Y, +3.79% debt down to 11.284%, a 132 basis point difference from its Friday close, and the largest single-day decline since Feb. 3, according to data from Tradeweb.

According to S&P’s criteria, Greece did default twice in 2012.

Poklonit će im novac. Nema te cijene koju jadni radnik u Njemačkoj i Francuskoj ne može platiti za glupariju zvana NWO.

Six months ago, Maria was playing oboe in the Greek National Opera’s premiere of Giacomo Puccini’s La bohème. Today she is signing on for €360 a month in unemployment benefits. “The money is running out, the jobs are disappearing,” the 36-year-old says. “They want us to work, but can’t pay.”

In Athens, Maria says, €360 will just about cover rent and utilities, but she shakes her head at the thought of finding money for food and other costs. This is the first time in her life she has signed on for out-of-work benefits. “Some people eat spaghetti for a month to save up for a night out, something fun,” she says.