Da je Njemacka imala oprezni pristup osin na istoku u zadnje 2 godine rata i pokusavala samo zadrzat sta drze Centralne sile umisto ic na 'knockout' udarac Englezima na moru i Francuzima na Pariz, otega bi se taj rat jos godinu dvi, do tih pobuna i zapad bi bija prisiljen potpisat neki mir koji u najmanju ruku prepusta veci dio istocne Europe Njemackoj.

Vjerojatno bi Nijemci nesto sta su zauzeli i prepustili, tipa Belgiju ili Rumunjsku ali sve u svemu, nebi bia taj razaracki ucinak na Europu ka sta je bia nakon 1918.

UK bi bankrotirala i carstvo bi in pocelo bizat na sve strane i to puno prije nego se pojavila komunisticka propaganda koja je to sve ucinila masu ozbiljnijin. Tu bi nasta raskol izmedu SAD i UK jer je Amerika protiv europskog imperijalizma. Jenkiji samo ekonomski imperijalizam priznaju ka legitiman.

Ovo bi uvuklo UK u krvave obracune protiv kolonija i to masu prije nego su postali totalno razmazeni 1950ih. 1920ih je britanski narod i dalje ima apetita za masovno nasilje.

Vec 1960ih Britanci i Francuzi vise nemaju tu grubost i tvrdi mentalitet potriban za masovno nasilje, ta gledanje kako mladici odlaze a vracaju se lijesovi sa zastavama. Za to je potriban bas revnost i grubost koja se izgubila kroz 1920e do 1950ih.

Americka mladost je tu revnost izgubila izmedu korejskog i vijetnamskog rata.

Mentalitet 25godisnjeg Jenkija u Koreji i Vijetnamu 20 godina kasnije je bia skroz drukciji.

Unatoc masu manjin gubitcima i opasnosti, generacija Vijetnama nije imala mentalitet, stav ni apetit za masovno nasilje.


UPRAVO OVE DRUSTVENE PROMJENE SU TEMELJ SVEGA

Granice su samo nizvodno tj produkt toga, bez mentaliteta zena da se bore i radaju, i muskaraca da se bore i umiru, nema nacionalne slave, dominacije ni pomicanja granica.

1921. u cilon Ujedinjenen Kraljevstvu živilo je 44,027.000 stanovnika.

1921. je u Škotskoj živilo 4,882.407 stanovnika.
1921. je u Walesu živilo 2,656.000 stanovnika.
1921. je u Sivernoj Irskoj živilo 1,264.000 stanovnika.
Po toj računici u Engleskoj je živilo ništo manje od stanovnika, jer triba oduzet Normandijske otoke, Man, Gibraltar i slične krunske poside koji činidu UK.
Otprilike 8,5 milijuna neengleskih stanovnika od 44 milijuna, znači 35,5 milijuna u Engleskoj.
Irskoj su popustili čak i ka pobidnici 1sr.
U ovemu scenariju zatreslo bi se na Britaniji, pa bi i Škoti virojatno bili glasniji za neovisnost, uzevši u obzir osamostaljenje Irske i u ovom scenariju Bretanje.

One male koncesije i ajmo reć kolonijice na Dalekon Istoku od Sridišnjih sila Japan bi bia smlavia. Možemo nagađat bi li Japan se nastavia dišpetavat Sridišnjin silama, nakon raspada Francuske, centrifugalnih procesa u Ujedinjenon Kraljevstvu, raspada sustava i višegodišnjeg građanskog rata u Ruskom Carstvu, priloma u Sridnoj Aziji, ili bi se prilagodia novin okolnostiman. Imat slabu Kinu i mandžurska bogatstva prid noson, a nima uopće Ruskeg Carstva za pričit širenje, veliko je iskušenje. Možda bi Japan bia iša iskoristit prigodu pa uz Mandžuriju osvojia strateški važnu luku Vladivostok i okolno priobalje.

Zbog stabilizirane Nimačke, ne bidu se tako rasplamsale komunističke revolucije po Europi. Austro-Ugarska je u 19. stoliću imala sjajnu obavištajnu službu, možda i najboju na svitu, te bi doskočila komunističkoj propagandi i sasikla ju. Tehnološko zaostajanje u vojnim tehnologijama u odnosu na Nimačku, Englesku i Francusku ne znači da je bila slaba na obavištajnom području. Poraz u ratu je skria tu njenu dimenziju, tvrdoglavo neuslišavanje slavenskih molba i tvrdoglavo pristajanje uz katastrofalnu politiku ugarske vlade napravilo je svoje. Nije ni Austrija bila puno boja (ali ipak jest), pa je zato i pala na nacionalnon pitanju. Da je uvažila slavenske zahtive imala bi zadovojno i motivirano stanovništvo, ni komunisti ni anarhisti ni minorni romantični nacionalisti ne bidu tražili sriću u zagrljaju svinjarske balkansko-azijatske tvorevine, niti bidu se infetali panslavizmom koji je vodia na vezivanje na Rusiju. Pravična država privlači jude, te bi cila Poljska i Ukrajina bili proaustrijske. Ne bidu se dogodile vrlo brze mobilizacije u Ruskom Carstvu 1914., velike pogranične pokrajine Ruskog Carstva uz Austro-Ugarsku bile bidu austrofilske i ne bi se dogodilo ka' kad je pritia slom Austro-Ugarske uslid brza prodiranja Ruskog Carstva priko Karpata, kad je izgledalo da će se spustit u Panonsku nizinu i ugrozit samu Budimpeštu.

Ovdi san naša jednu jako dobru analizu. Mnoge će zanimat. Članak je IZVRSTAN.
Grihota je da nije visoko u rizultatima pritrage.

https://www.cairn.info/revue-histoire-p ... age-16.htm

Austria-Hungary and the First World War
Alan Sked
Dans Histoire@Politique 2014/1 (n° 22), pages 16 à 49

Članak se dotaka teme širenja Austro-Ugarske, (ne)pripajanja ili komadanja Srbije, Crne Gore, Albanije, utjecaja na Balkanu posli rata, hrane iz Ukrajine, hoće li Poljska i dili Ukrajine pripast Nimačkoj ili Poljskoj, poljsko naginjanje A-U pa odmicanje nakon davanja Cholma...

Serbia, Vienna soon agreed, due to the influence of Tisza, the Hungarian premier, was neither to be annexed nor destroyed. Instead, she was to cede territory to Bulgaria, Albania and Greece but pay reparations to Austria-Hungary which would also receive some territory as “strategically important border corrections”. Specifically, these included the north-western corner of Serbia called the Ma?va, the north-east of Serbia around Negotin, and Belgrade itself.

The problem of what to do with Poland would also become a difficult one to resolve. Certainly, it had to be detached from Russia but what then? Tisza rejected any trialist solution meaning that if the Germans indeed allowed Poland to go to Austria-Hungary, it would have to be part of Cisleithania in some sort of sub-dualist structure. Clearly, there were huge potential gains from acquiring a territory as large as Poland, but these were never apparent to Hungarians.

Meanwhile, Congress Poland was given constitutional independence at the end of 1916 but with no agreement over who would control it. Burián kept pressing for Austrian parity with Germany in Poland; indeed, control of Poland, if possible, remained an Austrian war aim.

Once Serbia was defeated at the end of 1915 with German and Bulgarian help and the Russians had been defeated at Gorlice-Tarnów in the summer of 1915, however, Burián’s position became close to Tisza’s — rump Serbia would be dominated by Hungary which would populate it with Hungarian and German immigrant farmers but leave it nominally independent. The foreign ministry also wanted Albania to remain theoretically independent and neutral despite military occupation and Conrad’s desire to annexe or dismember the country. Burián, however, agreed that Montenegro should lose its coast, the Lov?en plateau, which threatened the Austro-Hungarian naval base at Cattaro, plus some northern territory to Austria-Hungary; she should also lose territory to Albania.

With the need for German support against the Brusilov Offensive in 1916 and against Romania which now entered the war, Austria-Hungary’s diplomatic room for manoeuvre became limited. She gained little from Romania’s defeat while Bulgaria pressured her for concessions in occupied Serbia and the Germans set their sights on the Albanian port of Valona.

Despite hunger becoming the most pressing issue for the Monarchy by 1917,

when Russia collapsed in revolution — which, it was feared would spread to the Monarchy — Czernin at Brest-Litovsk offered the whole of Poland — including Austrian Galicia — to Germany on condition that grain supplies from the Ukraine and Romania would reach starving Austria

The Germans, on the other hand, not merely went on to plan huge annexations in the East, but came up with schemes for the wholesale economic reorganisation of Central Europe that would have subordinated the whole Habsburg Monarchy to Germany — in short, the plans for Mitteleuropa.

by 1918 the Monarchy’s war aims had been fulfilled: Serbia and Russia had been crushed, Romania had ceded some strategic territory (the Iron Gates) to Austria-Hungary and agreed to border rectifications, and Austria-Hungary still had a say in the future of Poland. Italy had been humiliated by the autumn of 1917 at Caporetto. Austria-Hungary had even fought off serious threats from Germany and Bulgaria to interfere in her occupation zones in Serbia, Montenegro and Albania. All enemy troops had been expelled from the lands of the Monarchy. All her own troops were fighting abroad. Hence the new army chief of staff, General Arz von Straußenburg, began making all sorts of plans for annexations in the Balkans, which the foreign ministry still opposed.

Austria-Hungary saw the campaign against Italy as one against a traditional enemy and one, therefore, which united all populations of the Monarchy in enthusiasm for war;

The shifting of blame on to unreliable nationalities coincided, of course, with the efforts of radical nationalists to prove that battlefield desertions were the result of the fact that Austria-Hungary had been the “prison of the peoples”...German memoirists sought to blame the Habsburg army for their own defeat, ... if most Slav and Romanian accounts after 1918 gave unsympathetic accounts of the Habsburg army and stressed desertions by ethnic minority troops, Hungarian ones tended to exaggerate the sacrifices to the Monarchy made by the ‘heroic Magyar race’. 

The initial campaigns against Serbia by Oskar Potiorek’s army were accompanied by massacres of civilians and the taking of hostages, partly in retaliation for the murders of Austrian troops by Serbian partisans...Despite atrocities and war crimes, there was no intention of annihilating or exterminating a racial enemy. The army, in fact, operated a fairly mild occupation policy aimed at denationalising the country. Civilian ration quotas were higher than in starving Austria itself, and Serbia in military eyes was to become the breadbasket for the army and its friends, not for the home front. Russian and German occupation policies elsewhere were much harsher. In Serbia, when repression failed, military law was used to overcome national resistance. In the end, the army seemed to have secured its aims and Austrian historians are now preparing to investigate wartime collaboration. Govori o A-U. okupaciji Srbije.

Ovo je jako bitno: odnos Židova prima Austro-Ugarskoj. Smatrali su ju svojon osloboditeljicom i bili su pristaše Austro-Ugarske.
Isto, tako, da se A-U dostojanstveno odnosila prima Slavenima i dala in pripadajuća prava, imala bi Austro-Ugarska velike pristaše u slavenskom svitu u susidstvu i ne bidu Slaveni bili nepouzdani čimbenik u Galiciji.
Galicia, which twice passed from Austrian to Russian occupation. Slav inhabitants later deemed to have collaborated with the enemy were treated harshly; many were hanged by the Austrians while thousands of locals were forcibly transferred to other areas. The Jews of Galicia and Russian Poland, however, treated Austrian and German troops as liberators, which led to the Russians mistreating them when they retreated...Most Galician Zionists shared the loyalty and patriotism of the overwhelming majority of Galician Jews, indeed, of all Habsburg Jews, towards the empire generally and toward Franz Joseph in particular. Most Jews in the Habsburg Empire focused their attention squarely on Tsarist Russia and saw themselves and Austria-Hungary as liberators of Russian Jewry, thus uniting their Jewish and Habsburg loyalties

Na jednen drugen mistu naša san podatke o francusken iskrcavanju u Francuskoj 1918., kad se gušilo komunističke revolucije, Antantina protusovjetska revolucija. Tu ne spominje da se je radilo o ciljanem komadanju Ruskeg Carstva i da su se velike sile i male novostvorene države ukjučile u to, a da je Francuska ciljala na Ukrajinu, južni dil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_in ... _Civil_War
Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (3 March 1918), ending the bloodshed. The Allied Powers felt betrayed and turned against the new regime, aiding its "White" enemies and landing troops to prevent Russian supplies from reaching Germany...
According to William Henry Chamberlin, even before Brest-Litovsk, "Downing Street contemplated a protectorate over the Caucasus and the Quai d'Orsay over Crimea, Bessarabia and Ukraine" and began negotiating deals for funding White generals to bring them into being. R. H. Bruce Lockhart and another British agent and a French official in Moscow tried to organize a coup that would overthrow the Bolshevik regime.. French and British support for the Whites was also motivated by a desire to protect the assets they had acquired through extensive investment in Tsarist Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_ ... tervention

The Southern Russia intervention was a French-led Allied military intervention in Ukraine between December 1918 and April 1919 on the Black Sea shores of the former Russian Empire

Opisuje kako i di su se iskrcali u Ukrajini. Na kraju su ih natrali na uzmak i povlačenje.

U jednen drugen članku naša san podatak di su lokalni informanti in rekli da stanovništvo in ne će bit odano te da je pametnije povuć in se, što su ovi i napravili.
To odgovara onoj mojoj tezi o pobuni u Makedoniji i Trakiji.